Weekend Picks (8/19/08 - 8/22/08)

2007: +12.45 units
2008: +15.585 units

Juan Esquer vs. Luis Concepcion
Over 9.5 (+110) (Bodog)
1 unit

I was surprised to see a line on tonight's Esquer-Concepcion matchup, and possibly even more surprised to see the over set at dog odds.  The fight's been set at flyweight (112 lbs), which is a bit of a catchweight between where Concepcion and Esquer have fought their recent bouts.  Esquer's been at 108 for his last four fights, but he always looked big in that weight class, and I wonder if he's more comfortable at a higher weight.  Prior to the move down, he'd fought at 112-115 for most of his career.  Meanwhile, Concepcion's been at 115 most of his career, so he's likely the slightly bigger man despite giving up two inches in height to Esquer.  I've seen Esquer fight several times -- he makes up for what he lacks in speed with heart and pressure.  Top-notch technicians like Ivan Calderon and Carlos Tamara have outboxed him, but he was never really hurt in either contest (despite absorbing some flush uppercuts from Tamara in his last bout).  I haven't seen Concepcion, who has fought solely in his native Panama, where tonight's match also takes place.  Concepcion has a decent KO rate (9 out of 13), but he hasn't fought anyone good, and he went the distance against a 15-10-1 fighter named William De Sousa in his last bout.  Overall, Esquer and Concepcion appear to be evenly matched in this one, and I don't see either being able to impose his will on the other.  Esquer is probably too slow to land a huge shot on the relatively untested Concepcion, and I've seen enough of Esquer's chin to know that he'll likely be able to take Concepcion's best shots.  I would also side with Esquer at the dog price (+160), but I don't want to put my fate in the hands of the Panamanian judging panel, so I'm going with the over proposition in this one. 

Takalani Ndlovu vs. Fernando Beltran, Jr.
Beltran (+180) (Sportsbook)
.75 unit

This week's Friday Night Fights' main event sees the South African super bantamweight Ndlovu taking on the Mexican Beltran in the boxing metropolis Nashville, Tennessee.  Okay, well maybe it's not exactly a hotbed of boxing, but with August drought firmly upon us, it becomes a somewhat interesting matchup.  They share a common opponent in the undefeated Canadian Steve Molitor, who beat both men, handing Ndlovu his first KO loss last July and outpointing Beltran in his last fight - a fight that I thought was much closer than the scorecards represented.  Beltran was doing some serious damage to Molitor but got zero credit from the Canadian judges.  I see Beltran as a fighter who is still coming in to his own, while older Ndlovu is on the decline. The South African has a deep international resume, which has to be why he was installed as the favorite here, capped by his points win against Ricardo Castillo.  However, there's great value on Beltran, a man who's beaten the durable Felix Flores and who went 12 grueling, very close rounds with the dangerous Joan Guzman.  This fight has the feel of yet another ESPN upset, with Beltran coming out ahead on the scorecards.  I'm posting this pick early since I'm fairly certain the value on Beltran will be going down exponentially as we approach Friday. 

Juan Esquer vs. Luis Concepcion
Over 9.5 (+110) (Bodog)
1 unit 

Apparently, Esquer got bloodied up through 5 rounds, and the doctor recommended a stoppage.  Who knows what really happened, as the fight was untelevised and in Panama. It's always a bit iffy betting on these types of fights, but I thought I had a good read on Esquer's chin.  I'm willing to bet that he could've gone the distance, but without seeing the footage, that's just speculation on my part. 

Hopefully, Beltran can turn the week into a profitable one.  Go Fernando!

Tough break on the over in Panama.  Who knows what happened down there.  Esquer has had some decent whiskers when I have seen him before.  Hope you don't mind A2C, but I figured that I would put my plays in here since it is such a light week.  I've got to go against you in the FNF main event.  I think that Ndovlu is the more talented guy here and he has the promotional edge.  I saw Ndovlu fight both Molitor and Castillo, it looked to me Ndovlu was just lost in there against Molitor, I am chalking that up as an off night.  I just think that Beltran is very ordinary, he is tough though.

Played the draw in the Lehoullier-Yorgey fight, Jason is very ordinary.  I don't know anything at all about Yorgey except what the record indicates and he appears to be the same.  I think this is an excellent opportunity for a draw play in what should be a close 10 rounder between two non-punchers.

1.90 units on Ndlovu (-125) vs Beltran
.50 of a unit on the DRAW (+1500) in Lehoullier/Yorgey

Great pick moron ,I was all ready to take Beltran until I seen all this crap you wrote up and I laid off

Keep your freaking thoughts and losing money picks to yourself

CW123, let's keep it positive in here.  We're all trying to help each other out by posting these picks.  Fullbrights knows his stuff and I respect his opinions tremendously. 

Takalani Ndlovu vs. Fernando Beltran, Jr.
Beltran (+180) (Sportsbook)
1.35 units

What a fight.  This could have easily gone either way, but Beltran was the busier man and 2 out of the 3 judges had him ahead when it was all said and done.  I have to admit, it looked bery bad for the Mexican after the point deduction but that just seemed to throw gasoline on the fire for Beltran, as he had his best rounds in the 11th and 12th immediately following the penalty.  Overall, there was too much clinching from both guys for my taste.  Beltran opened at +180 at most books and closed around +120, giving us a classic example of following the money to victory.  I stated in the preview that the line was more than likely going to drop and sure enough it did, but as we all know, that doesn't always mean a win.  In this case, it was a classic nail biter until the cards were read.

Typo, not bery bad, very bad,  D'oh! 

You crack me up coweringbeef.  I love your criteria here. 

Fullbrights, will this month ever end?  I'm tired of these kinds of fights and Olympic boxing has been a charade.   September and October can't arrive soon enough. 

Sorry Fullbrights . I was just mad . No one made me do anything but myself