CFL-11

Likes:

Edmonton (as I write this the line has moved to Edmonton as the short Dog) >>> Their D is just scary bad.  Offense is great, but no lead is ever safe.  Not really sure if I get involved in the game. Ti-Cats have a horrible record at home 4-14 ATS the last 18 home games and 5-12-1 ATS in those 18 home contests.    Edmonton has been  the favorite in their games the last 9 times, only covering 2 of those.  When Edmonton is getting points they are 12-4 ATS and have 9 wins in those 16 contests.  My opinion on this game is the Ti-Cats are really bad laying points and at home.   Edmonton's line priced right and is finally worth taking.

Alouettes>>> Fading this team is in the past. The lines are not favorable anymore. The Argo's are not the team that should be laying close to a Td on the road.  

Bombers >>>  The fans can boo this guy all they want, it just one bad game.  It not like he is wearing a Drew Willy #5 Jersey.

Nichols is a solid CFL QB and I think last weeks loss will be forgotten quickly.   I am excited to watch this game.  I think the Peg responds very nicely here.  I think the Stamps showed some vulnerability last week.

Riders >>> There could be a hangover and the Lions are better with Lulay, but when the Lions have been less than great at home in games when the Lions are favored by less than 7 points.  7-10 In these games and 4-12-1.  

I am not sure if I will get involved yet,  Lulay does make the Lions better,  and the  Riders go on the road After beating the Stamps hangover is possible but I am not considering the Lions here.

Good read Spottie, nice to get another angle on things.

Thank you Indigo, you keep the pot boiling  

Eskimo's +3 1 unit.

Even in my original post I went back and forth on these teams.  Most of my focus is on team trends and regression off of the past lines.  That being said neither Edmonton or Hamilton are on my radar at this point.  There are some positives that motivate me to make a play here ( there are some negatives ex: Edmonton's D).

I like line reversals.  In a small league I find it easier to keep tabs on these line changes then I follow consensus to confirm my thinking.  It is not an exact science, but I like these type of plays because I actually use my brain.  My other plays usually are automatic based on the previous weeks data.

Anyway,  Edmonton has the better record,  Edmonton excels when getting points.  The Ti-Cats are horrid when they are expected to win, favorites.  1st time Edmonton has been a dog in 9 games.

This might be a sucker bet, but I am buying it

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Winnipeg +9.5 2 units

Both Peg and Calgary are on my over priced list but in this case there is only one team that is over priced.

Again I might be a sucker for taking the points but I really like Winnipeg when they are loaded with points.

I am waiting out the other games.

t:team = Blue Bombers and date >= 20150921 and line >=4

Hey Spottie good insite as usual if you look at CAL first 7 games that was a super soft schedule. They got SASK with Bridge, they almost gave the game away at home VS BC on a late Turnover changed that game, They almost lost to Hamilton in the opener but Masoli threw a pick on what could have been the game winning drive. 

Then they ran into a buzz saw in SASK only to play another tough CFL team this week and they are shaded fav's again.

Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary.

GL this week I was like to stop by and read what you are up to

Thanks Powerz, it means a lot because I know you have been here in the CFL forum for a very long time

ppppppppp:F and pppppppp:F and ppppppp:F and pppppp:F and ppppp:F and pppp:F and ppp:F and pp:F and

p:F and AD and line <7 and o:team!=Stampeders

A team that has been the Favorites the last nine games and now an Away dog and the line is less than a TD (close game)

and they are not playing the Stampeders. 3-2 ATS

The teams involved in these games in the past were the Stampeders and the Alouettes with Calvillo at QB.

I am siding with the consensus on this one.

thx Bold

Alouettes +6 cash 

done for the week.

Two 1 unit winners and a Two unit lose on the Peg today

even week and on to week 12

Lions again prove they are a waste of money as home when expected to win.  It is not over but if it looks  like a pig best to cover your nose