CFL-12

Alouettes @ Redblacks

To me betting is all about lines.  How it plays out on the field ?  CFL games can be crazy.  It is hard to know.  Getting into this matchup I do what I do and I stay on course.  I think some of the "value" could be taken away from the Alouettes after 3 covers in a row, and last weeks home winner.   As is the case for many of these CFL teams the Redblacks stink when lating -3 or less points >>>

t: team=Redblacks and line <=-3

On the flip side as the Alouettes improve those big spreads and winning tickets are going to fade to black.  From my long history of betting I am not sure the masses are convinced in the Alouettes at this point so I expect another line that benefits the Alouettes.  If that ends up being the case I am 1  unit ready to place another wager on the Alouettes.

Ottawa is pretty good and disappointed last time against the Alouettes  and they might make the Al's pay this time but dependant on the line I am pretty certain I will be taking +the points with the Alouettes.   

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Winnipeg @ Saskatchewan

Who is the Favorite here?

If one is following the league, we all know who is doing what. Who is trending up and down.  This is exactly the case here, trending.  Winnipeg has been so awesome covering spreads and now showing some regression.  It is time for me to pound hard against the Peg for a while.  Its hard backing favorites in the CFL but no matter the line here Its the Green Riders or nothing.

I have been doing well and making money on the Green Riders since the 2016 season.  From 2010 until 2016 they had a ATS record of 44-69= -25 units with no juice.  Since then they have been climbing the mountain and cashing tickets.  Chris Jones has them playing top notch and they Finally have a adequate QB.  

As I touched on Winnipeg has been an ATS machine for quite a few games now (They are 28-13 ATS the last 41 games, and that includes the last two failures.)  Super impressive run.  I want no part of the Bombers anymore.  I keep my units in control I will have no problems fading this squad.

Indigo has the Riders at -3.5 and I am not going to try to predict a line but as it sits im not taking the Bombers.

Saskatchewan minus  the points but if it opens lower I would appreciate it and jump on a early line.

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Edmonton Esks@ The big bad CalGary Stamps.

It is really hard to watch Edmonton  when one has money on them.  They can look so great on offense.  The problem is just like last week they only scored in one quarter.  They just don't have power defensively.

I am sure I will be on the Skomes this week after the Stamps did what they did to the Bombers I expect to be getting another nice line here.

No way I bet the Skmoes when laying points but they can score and elevate nicely when the line is right.  I will wait to see the line, but I expect some nice points here.

Skmoes + another generous line I hope.

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Argo's @ Ti-Cats

Bait and switch game.  Argo's lose to the worst team last week.  Poor coaching and mistakes and a big mess of football and now they are Away and catching points to a team that is just horrible when they are favorites.  If they Ti-Cats were -3 to Edmonton what is the line this week.  It may not open this high, but Its gotta be close to -5 or higher.  Anytime the Ti-cats are favored in the sportsdatabase's website database they are 40-57 ATS.  More recently since week 18 of 2015 they are 8-16 ATS when ever the books tag them laying points.   Furthermore when the Ti-Cats win the previous game and are favorites since week 10 of 2015 they only have 3 wins in 12 games as favorites. 

I know the Argo's were bad last week and I predicted they would be as I had the Al's +6 last week, but this line should be ripe and the Argo's are going to find a win to cash a ticket here.

Argo's +

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Wish everyone the best this week.

Recap of possibles 

Alouettes +

Saskatchewan -

Edmonton +

Argo's +

One last comment about the Ticats 

since week 14 of 2016 they are 11-23 straight up

Argo's are +8 and climbing lol.  Too bad its 7 days away.

my plays will be:

Montreal 1 unit

I hate the way this team is but they are on my list and I am sticking to my guns.  If I was to stray I think this could easily be a blowout like the last meeting should have been.  The Alouettes were extremely lucky to get the cover in that one, and it looks as though luck will have to be on my side again.  Anyone like the Redblacks -16.5 the easy fade the Alouettes lines are all gone now.  At these prices its a pure gamble where or not one thinks -16.5 will pay off.

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Saskatchewan -3.5 1 unit

I hate that the Riders are laying this many here.  This is a game where the Riders keep things going and the Bombers also keep trending in the Red.   My brain tells me Peg is the right side here due to a little Saskatchewan regression, but my system indicators are on the Riders.  If Peg keeps doing what they do I this will be a  winning wager.

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Edmonton 2 units. 

I dont think the line will be going down below +7 so I wait for better odds.  In my opinion Peg is looking horrible.  Edmonton has issues but they can at least score.  I am a little nuts to keep betting against the Stamps, but the Stamp line are catching up with them.  I think Edmonton is capable to make an upset in one of their battles with the Stamps this season.  It appears that beating winning in Calgary is next to impossible but it wouldn't shock me here.  Calgary is 32-3 at H last 35 and the line is only -7. Humm.

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As I already said my play of the week is the Argo's 

Argo's +  ...   3 units

  In my opinion Peg is looking horrible.   ( this statement was based on last weeks line Peg +9) now the Esks +7 or higher.  I like the Esks +7 more. If Calgary covers again we should see regression from them again soon . 

yea thats good.  Maybe its because they go from -6 on the road to +8 +14 points from one game to another and not playing Calgary.  It is a big line change.  More often then not I would guess this would be a strong ROI over a long period of time.

GL this week spottie

Thanks guys 

Alouettes 

Thx again Bold 

Green Riders

Monday :

Skmoes +7 >>>Two units 

Argo's +8.5 >>> Three Units

Looking like a very good week for you....nice.

When the line changes from last game to this one and the team is an away dog...... 

169-151-7 ATS, 145-180 O/U

line-o:line>10 and AD 

sorry, this is the query.....

p:line-line>10 and AD   

67-59 ATS, 55-73 O/U

Thanks Indigo  I love the query