This is my first and probably only Teaser of the year. I laid the points with Montreal last week and i make no excuses, it was definitely the wrong side. However with Hamilton being a 3 point dog in Week 10 and now a 5 point dog on the road this week the value just isn't there in backing the Ticats. A two point differential just won't cut if for me. You can breakdown last weeks game in several ways, but as far as wagering principals are concerned taking 5 with the Tabbies is just a bad wager regardless of the outcome. I agree with almost everyone's analysis that Montreal's secondary is vulnerable.The Tabbies had an answer last week by switching from Man to man and playing more zone defense. They threw a wrench at Calivillo, but he's a champion and he'll bounce back on Sunday. I'm going a step further here and Teasing what i think will be two home teams that will get the job done this week. I'm also chopping these spreads in half by taking both Bc and Montreal in the FIRST HALF.
MON -2.5 1ST HALF ( 2 units ) BC -4 1ST HALF ( 2 units )
CALGARY - 3 ( 3 units )
Good luck and have a great betting weekend.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD 18-16 ( -7.40 units )
5u 0-0 4U 0-3 3U 0-2 2U 10-4 1U 8-7
BC -1.5 / MON +1 ( 6pt Teaser ) 4 UNITS
This is my first and probably only Teaser of the year. I laid the points with Montreal last week and i make no excuses, it was definitely the wrong side. However with Hamilton being a 3 point dog in Week 10 and now a 5 point dog on the road this week the value just isn't there in backing the Ticats. A two point differential just won't cut if for me. You can breakdown last weeks game in several ways, but as far as wagering principals are concerned taking 5 with the Tabbies is just a bad wager regardless of the outcome. I agree with almost everyone's analysis that Montreal's secondary is vulnerable.The Tabbies had an answer last week by switching from Man to man and playing more zone defense. They threw a wrench at Calivillo, but he's a champion and he'll bounce back on Sunday. I'm going a step further here and Teasing what i think will be two home teams that will get the job done this week. I'm also chopping these spreads in half by taking both Bc and Montreal in the FIRST HALF.
MON -2.5 1ST HALF ( 2 units ) BC -4 1ST HALF ( 2 units )
This is my first and probably only Teaser of the year. I laid the points with Montreal last week and i make no excuses, it was definitely the wrong side. However with Hamilton being a 3 point dog in Week 10 and now a 5 point dog on the road this week the value just isn't there in backing the Ticats. A two point differential just won't cut if for me. You can breakdown last weeks game in several ways, but as far as wagering principals are concerned taking 5 with the Tabbies is just a bad wager regardless of the outcome. I agree with almost everyone's analysis that Montreal's secondary is vulnerable.The Tabbies had an answer last week by switching from Man to man and playing more zone defense. They threw a wrench at Calivillo, but he's a champion and he'll bounce back on Sunday. I'm going a step further here and Teasing what i think will be two home teams that will get the job done this week. I'm also chopping these spreads in half by taking both Bc and Montreal in the FIRST HALF.
MON -2.5 1ST HALF ( 2 units ) BC -4 1ST HALF ( 2 units )
CALGARY - 3 ( 3 units )
Good luck and have a great betting weekend.
all depends on how you look at that. the bottom line is montreal should never have been favored in either game in hamilton to begin with lookin back. those lines were off by at least 3 points. outside of beating up on toronto twice , skatch at the begining of the year and an edmonton that was hiring players off the street due to injury they havent shown anything against teams with a pulse. they have lost 4 out of 6..think about that. thats pretty bad and glenns numbers arent that far off from cavillos. gl this week
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Quote Originally Posted by 44-dimes:
YTD 18-16 ( -7.40 units )
5u 0-0 4U 0-3 3U 0-2 2U 10-4 1U 8-7
BC -1.5 / MON +1 ( 6pt Teaser ) 4 UNITS
This is my first and probably only Teaser of the year. I laid the points with Montreal last week and i make no excuses, it was definitely the wrong side. However with Hamilton being a 3 point dog in Week 10 and now a 5 point dog on the road this week the value just isn't there in backing the Ticats. A two point differential just won't cut if for me. You can breakdown last weeks game in several ways, but as far as wagering principals are concerned taking 5 with the Tabbies is just a bad wager regardless of the outcome. I agree with almost everyone's analysis that Montreal's secondary is vulnerable.The Tabbies had an answer last week by switching from Man to man and playing more zone defense. They threw a wrench at Calivillo, but he's a champion and he'll bounce back on Sunday. I'm going a step further here and Teasing what i think will be two home teams that will get the job done this week. I'm also chopping these spreads in half by taking both Bc and Montreal in the FIRST HALF.
MON -2.5 1ST HALF ( 2 units ) BC -4 1ST HALF ( 2 units )
CALGARY - 3 ( 3 units )
Good luck and have a great betting weekend.
all depends on how you look at that. the bottom line is montreal should never have been favored in either game in hamilton to begin with lookin back. those lines were off by at least 3 points. outside of beating up on toronto twice , skatch at the begining of the year and an edmonton that was hiring players off the street due to injury they havent shown anything against teams with a pulse. they have lost 4 out of 6..think about that. thats pretty bad and glenns numbers arent that far off from cavillos. gl this week
1. I LOVE your analysis on both CFL and WNBA. Keep up the good work. You are a CLASS act - in your picks - but more importantly in your demeanor in your threads (You didn't get excited when CP got technical at end of game and the 1 FT got your over - since many people had total 1 pt higher and it cost them (including me) the over, etc, etc, etc). I will send you a PM at some point (please accept friend request - have some ideas for you on sports math).
2. You took the tease. Most 6 point teasers are -120ish, I get mine at +100. However, when you tease teams to "basically win" - you should always check vs Parlay MLs. I have BC at -301 and Mon at -203 - so a 1u parlay pays 0.9885 - while if you are getting tease at worse than +100 then it pays less than 0.9885. And MON +1 isn't better than ML ML (since ties lose) - and for BC you could lose if they win by 1pt. I think the ML parlay MAKES more sense for your bet and thesis.
Again, I will send you PM at some point - as I am okay at NFL, okay at college football, and don't know anything about other sports - but I DO 100% know math and sports math.
Good luck, keep it up!!!
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44-Dimes: 2 things.
1. I LOVE your analysis on both CFL and WNBA. Keep up the good work. You are a CLASS act - in your picks - but more importantly in your demeanor in your threads (You didn't get excited when CP got technical at end of game and the 1 FT got your over - since many people had total 1 pt higher and it cost them (including me) the over, etc, etc, etc). I will send you a PM at some point (please accept friend request - have some ideas for you on sports math).
2. You took the tease. Most 6 point teasers are -120ish, I get mine at +100. However, when you tease teams to "basically win" - you should always check vs Parlay MLs. I have BC at -301 and Mon at -203 - so a 1u parlay pays 0.9885 - while if you are getting tease at worse than +100 then it pays less than 0.9885. And MON +1 isn't better than ML ML (since ties lose) - and for BC you could lose if they win by 1pt. I think the ML parlay MAKES more sense for your bet and thesis.
Again, I will send you PM at some point - as I am okay at NFL, okay at college football, and don't know anything about other sports - but I DO 100% know math and sports math.
1. I LOVE your analysis on both CFL and WNBA. Keep up the good work. You are a CLASS act - in your picks - but more importantly in your demeanor in your threads (You didn't get excited when CP got technical at end of game and the 1 FT got your over - since many people had total 1 pt higher and it cost them (including me) the over, etc, etc, etc). I will send you a PM at some point (please accept friend request - have some ideas for you on sports math).
2. You took the tease. Most 6 point teasers are -120ish, I get mine at +100. However, when you tease teams to "basically win" - you should always check vs Parlay MLs. I have BC at -301 and Mon at -203 - so a 1u parlay pays 0.9885 - while if you are getting tease at worse than +100 then it pays less than 0.9885. And MON +1 isn't better than ML ML (since ties lose) - and for BC you could lose if they win by 1pt. I think the ML parlay MAKES more sense for your bet and thesis.
Again, I will send you PM at some point - as I am okay at NFL, okay at college football, and don't know anything about other sports - but I DO 100% know math and sports math.
Good luck, keep it up!!!
i think here like you say, you have to parlay the money line.
bc-1.5 can beat you if they win by1, i think at 5dimes the money line parlay pays -105 , and the 2 team teaser pay -105.
pinnacle for now have only posted calgary game to parlay.
but 44 should know this.
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Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:
44-Dimes: 2 things.
1. I LOVE your analysis on both CFL and WNBA. Keep up the good work. You are a CLASS act - in your picks - but more importantly in your demeanor in your threads (You didn't get excited when CP got technical at end of game and the 1 FT got your over - since many people had total 1 pt higher and it cost them (including me) the over, etc, etc, etc). I will send you a PM at some point (please accept friend request - have some ideas for you on sports math).
2. You took the tease. Most 6 point teasers are -120ish, I get mine at +100. However, when you tease teams to "basically win" - you should always check vs Parlay MLs. I have BC at -301 and Mon at -203 - so a 1u parlay pays 0.9885 - while if you are getting tease at worse than +100 then it pays less than 0.9885. And MON +1 isn't better than ML ML (since ties lose) - and for BC you could lose if they win by 1pt. I think the ML parlay MAKES more sense for your bet and thesis.
Again, I will send you PM at some point - as I am okay at NFL, okay at college football, and don't know anything about other sports - but I DO 100% know math and sports math.
Good luck, keep it up!!!
i think here like you say, you have to parlay the money line.
bc-1.5 can beat you if they win by1, i think at 5dimes the money line parlay pays -105 , and the 2 team teaser pay -105.
pinnacle for now have only posted calgary game to parlay.
This is my first and probably only Teaser of the year. I laid the points with Montreal last week and i make no excuses, it was definitely the wrong side. However with Hamilton being a 3 point dog in Week 10 and now a 5 point dog on the road this week the value just isn't there in backing the Ticats. A two point differential just won't cut if for me. You can breakdown last weeks game in several ways, but as far as wagering principals are concerned taking 5 with the Tabbies is just a bad wager regardless of the outcome. I agree with almost everyone's analysis that Montreal's secondary is vulnerable.The Tabbies had an answer last week by switching from Man to man and playing more zone defense. They threw a wrench at Calivillo, but he's a champion and he'll bounce back on Sunday. I'm going a step further here and Teasing what i think will be two home teams that will get the job done this week. I'm also chopping these spreads in half by taking both Bc and Montreal in the FIRST HALF.
MON -2.5 1ST HALF ( 2 units ) BC -4 1ST HALF ( 2 units )
CALGARY - 3 ( 3 units )
Good luck and have a great betting weekend.
i like calgary here also , its seems the easy way to go
but calgary should bounce back after that shameful loss.
Montreal have to win, really have to win here.
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Quote Originally Posted by 44-dimes:
YTD 18-16 ( -7.40 units )
5u 0-0 4U 0-3 3U 0-2 2U 10-4 1U 8-7
BC -1.5 / MON +1 ( 6pt Teaser ) 4 UNITS
This is my first and probably only Teaser of the year. I laid the points with Montreal last week and i make no excuses, it was definitely the wrong side. However with Hamilton being a 3 point dog in Week 10 and now a 5 point dog on the road this week the value just isn't there in backing the Ticats. A two point differential just won't cut if for me. You can breakdown last weeks game in several ways, but as far as wagering principals are concerned taking 5 with the Tabbies is just a bad wager regardless of the outcome. I agree with almost everyone's analysis that Montreal's secondary is vulnerable.The Tabbies had an answer last week by switching from Man to man and playing more zone defense. They threw a wrench at Calivillo, but he's a champion and he'll bounce back on Sunday. I'm going a step further here and Teasing what i think will be two home teams that will get the job done this week. I'm also chopping these spreads in half by taking both Bc and Montreal in the FIRST HALF.
MON -2.5 1ST HALF ( 2 units ) BC -4 1ST HALF ( 2 units )
CALGARY - 3 ( 3 units )
Good luck and have a great betting weekend.
i like calgary here also , its seems the easy way to go
but calgary should bounce back after that shameful loss.
1. I LOVE your analysis on both CFL and WNBA. Keep up the good work. You are a CLASS act - in your picks - but more importantly in your demeanor in your threads (You didn't get excited when CP got technical at end of game and the 1 FT got your over - since many people had total 1 pt higher and it cost them (including me) the over, etc, etc, etc). I will send you a PM at some point (please accept friend request - have some ideas for you on sports math).
2. You took the tease. Most 6 point teasers are -120ish, I get mine at +100. However, when you tease teams to "basically win" - you should always check vs Parlay MLs. I have BC at -301 and Mon at -203 - so a 1u parlay pays 0.9885 - while if you are getting tease at worse than +100 then it pays less than 0.9885. And MON +1 isn't better than ML ML (since ties lose) - and for BC you could lose if they win by 1pt. I think the ML parlay MAKES more sense for your bet and thesis.
Again, I will send you PM at some point - as I am okay at NFL, okay at college football, and don't know anything about other sports - but I DO 100% know math and sports math.
Good luck, keep it up!!!
1. I remember that game very well.
2. I've brought up the Teaser/ML option scenario several times in the past. I look at all my options when betting teasers in comparison to parlaying them on the money line. Here's my point !! Pinny's 6 pt teaser are even money. By the way a tie in a two team teaser at Pinny is considered no action regardless on the outcome of the other game.I'd never lay 20 cents on a teaser. Your numbers are accurate. For every $100 wagered your take back is $198.85. So your question is Wouldn't it be better to take both Mon and BC on the ML // For such a small difference money wise the answer is probably YES. In my case the worst outcome is that BC wins by 1. However on Pinnacle your only allowed same day parlays. Teasers differ. In essence i can take BC ( which is the first game ) at -203 and ride my winnings into Sunday. The only problem is that Montreal might not by -303 on game day. Therefore the teaser might be worthy of it's payout. I AGREE IT GET'S TRICKY AND HINDSIGHT IS 20/20.
GL and I'll PM you all the other goodies.
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Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:
44-Dimes: 2 things.
1. I LOVE your analysis on both CFL and WNBA. Keep up the good work. You are a CLASS act - in your picks - but more importantly in your demeanor in your threads (You didn't get excited when CP got technical at end of game and the 1 FT got your over - since many people had total 1 pt higher and it cost them (including me) the over, etc, etc, etc). I will send you a PM at some point (please accept friend request - have some ideas for you on sports math).
2. You took the tease. Most 6 point teasers are -120ish, I get mine at +100. However, when you tease teams to "basically win" - you should always check vs Parlay MLs. I have BC at -301 and Mon at -203 - so a 1u parlay pays 0.9885 - while if you are getting tease at worse than +100 then it pays less than 0.9885. And MON +1 isn't better than ML ML (since ties lose) - and for BC you could lose if they win by 1pt. I think the ML parlay MAKES more sense for your bet and thesis.
Again, I will send you PM at some point - as I am okay at NFL, okay at college football, and don't know anything about other sports - but I DO 100% know math and sports math.
Good luck, keep it up!!!
1. I remember that game very well.
2. I've brought up the Teaser/ML option scenario several times in the past. I look at all my options when betting teasers in comparison to parlaying them on the money line. Here's my point !! Pinny's 6 pt teaser are even money. By the way a tie in a two team teaser at Pinny is considered no action regardless on the outcome of the other game.I'd never lay 20 cents on a teaser. Your numbers are accurate. For every $100 wagered your take back is $198.85. So your question is Wouldn't it be better to take both Mon and BC on the ML // For such a small difference money wise the answer is probably YES. In my case the worst outcome is that BC wins by 1. However on Pinnacle your only allowed same day parlays. Teasers differ. In essence i can take BC ( which is the first game ) at -203 and ride my winnings into Sunday. The only problem is that Montreal might not by -303 on game day. Therefore the teaser might be worthy of it's payout. I AGREE IT GET'S TRICKY AND HINDSIGHT IS 20/20.
I like the idea of teasing BC, because while I think there's a great chance they win, covering is tough twice in a row against the same team. Unless Jyles is missing his arms, he can't possibly be as bad as Bell was last game, so you know the Argos will be improved.
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I like the idea of teasing BC, because while I think there's a great chance they win, covering is tough twice in a row against the same team. Unless Jyles is missing his arms, he can't possibly be as bad as Bell was last game, so you know the Argos will be improved.
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