CFL week 13 Indigo lines/thoughts/picks

32-20 ATS season to date.

Bunch of revenge games for 3 of the home teams this weekend.  Two of them are most likely gonna be home dogs.  I'll run the database after I post my lines.  It'll be interesting to see how quick revengers have done in the zany CFL.

Ottawa are like Jeckyl and Hyde...they can't get out of their own way at home, but put them on the road and they're world beaters....their game against the Lions should be a scoring circus, now that Mister Lulay gets to run the ship in Lion Land.

Indigo lines

BC             pik        Ottawa           55

Toronto     +2'        Hamilton         53'

Winnipeg    -3         Saskatchewan 54'

Edmonton   +3        Calgary           52

Must game for Winnipeg after losing 3 straight.....Matt Nichols unfortunately has had to deal with playing with some neophyte receivers that cost him at the end of the game versus the Sasquatches....and he may well take the fall if they lose this one as quarterbacks often do.   It is only a matter of time anyway before Streveler becomes the franchinse for Winnipeg, whether it be sooner or later.  I predict that Strevler will one day be a league MOP, whether the Bombers want to put a rookie in charge,...more likely he'll get his shot if their season is totally lost than now when they are still in the thick of it, though slumping BADLY.

It looks likely that the Western Division once again will be crossing over to play the East in the playoffs.  If it's Winnipeg they look better than any of the two Eastern teams.  Still, it's not easy to win two in a row on the road in the cold in November....they have a couple games left with all of the their big division rivals that are ahead of them in the standings.  It looks like one of those seasons where nothing is going their way, except that can reverse itself in the playoffs as lower seeded teams often do damage there.

Running the database info....not much is showing up in the turn around revenge games that would get me interested in making a play.

We'll see what Mister Linemaker gives us in the next 24 hours.

There is a whole lot of regression coming for the Bombers this is only the begining

t:team = Blue Bombers and date>=20160728 and date <20180811 

I cut this date off 3 weeks ago because the last 3 were all ATS losses.  They are trending horribly and they are and will be on a huge decline.

Home divisional favorites on a >=3 game losing streak that lost their last game away have been 15-8 ATS 

9-4 ATS if their opponent's winning percentage is superior to theirs.

Non divisional away teams that lost at home as at least 6 point favorites their prior game have been 4-5-1 ATS, but 2-8 straight up.    Redblacks

Non-divisional home teams that have the superior passing offense (yards per pass attempt) who are playing an opponent different from their last opponent have been 73-94 ATS,.....if they have the lesser winning percentage and the line is between -5 and 5 their record has been 12-21 ATS   Lions

Not much to get excited about,...I may even skip this week's card unless the linemaker gives me a juicy line that is way off, which they have been prone to do this year.

I will have a few one unit plays.  It means I am winning my tickets.  I am getting rewards not building my units.  I agree that things are a bit cloudy right now.

The linemaker has spoken....mine in brackets

BC             -2'   (pik)       Ottawa             52     (55)

Toronto     +4'   (+2')      Hamilton           52'    (53')

Winnipeg    -3'   (-3)        Saskatchewan   53     (54')

Edmonton  +3   (+3)       Calgary             53'     (52)

Looks like the least amount of opportunities this season so far.

Early lean to the OVER in the Ottawa game and UNDER in the Bomber game.

It looks likely that I'll have no picks this week....taking a page out of Spottie's book, here are my plays this week.

1)  Colts -3

2)  Broncos -2'

3)  Redskins +1, -120

4)  49ers + (price is still rising, am waiting to pull the trigger)

5)  Bills  + "                                "                                  "

6)  Cowboys +3

7)  Jets +6'

and here are my college plays...

8)  Nevada +10

9)  Cal +140

10) UMass +120

11) NIU +11

12) Coastal Carolina +9'

13) UConn +33'

14) Hawaii -17

15) Cincinnati Bearcats +120

16) Liberty +9'

adding:

17)  Buffalo Bulls +5

18)  Arizona Wildcats +3'

Play:

1)  Lions -1'

I've found a 106-72 ATS angle favoring BC (+5.36) that is also 148-32-1 straight up (+12.31), winning 82.2% of the time, and it is also 72-105-3 O/U (-1.94).

This angle increases even more if our home team lost their previous home game and their opponent won their previous away game.

Lions are a good home team under Lulay and Wally, and lost their last home game to the Riders.  We'll expect a very good performance by the Lions against the Redblacks. 

As far as the UNDER is concerned, I placed this total at 56 and the total is 51', so because I don't think the line is accurate I'll pass on a indicated UNDER play.

Good fortune this weekend.

I waited on the Bills' line, but evidently I didn't wait long enough.

4)  49ers +6' +103

5)  Bills +7, +103 (line has moved to 7')

Added:

17)  Arizona Wildcats +3'

18)  Buffalo Bulls +5

Because the majority of games this week are revengers and back-to-back games, we'll see if I can glean any interesting information from the database.

A back-to-back situation is entered as po:team=o:team (previous opponent = this week's opponent)

How about if we take a divisional home team playing off an away loss last week to the same opponent?

H and p:AL and po:team=o:team and DIV  ........we find those teams have been 18-16 and 14-20 O/U, nothing too exciting.

Now we come to some secret sauce, we want to find some statistic that is a fade, or a regression stat and pile it on the very slight advantage we have in taking a home divisional game with immediate revenge.

The ones I commonly will use are these:   

1)  tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)<0    average turnover margin/game advantage (offensive turnovers-defensive turnovers created)

2)  tA(YPPA)-oA(YPPA)>0  offensive average yards per pass attempt

Both of these are well documented highly correlative to beating the spread, so it's easy right we find the team with the advantage and bet that team, right?

Nope, those stats are regressive in nature, which means the team with the past advantage is likely to under-perform moving forward.

In the case of:

1) The team with the average turnover disadvantage has had a spread record of 392-375-15 (51.2%) 

2)  The team with a lesser offensive yards/pass attempt their spread record is 426-375-15 (53.2%)

Neither of those stats are earth shattering, and those percentages are higher in the NFL.

So, let's see if our immediate revenge angle combined with the offensive passing yards/attempt advantage gives us something worth considering.

tA(YPPA)>oA(YPPA) and H and po:team=o:team and DIV and playoffs=0   

gives us 4-9 ATS  which would have us considering going VERSUS the Blue Bombers and the Eskimos, as they have the better offensive passing yards/attempt statistics going into their games.

With passing yards/attempt disadvantage, (Argonauts)

tA(YPPA)<oA(YPPA) and H and po:team=o:team and DIV and playoffs=0

we get 12-7, however this is only 6-6 ATS when our indicated team is a home dog.

Actually I lied, when comparing average turnover margins between two opponents the team with the turnover disadvantage in the NFL covers 51.6% of the time.  If they have the lesser record and it's game number 5 or greater this moves to 52.5%

NFL teams with the average season-to-date offensive pass yards/attempt disadvantage cover 50.9% of the time.

In the CFL, as I've mentioned numerous time, the default play is taking the underdog, especially when the dog has a lesser winning percentage,...if one does that in CFL betting year after year you would be a winner.

Using this:

tA(W)<oA(W) and D   would get you:

a)  NFL 51.3% against the spread

b)  CFL 54.7% against the spread, this year it is 18-12 ATS

Always Appreciated Indigo....Nice Write-Ups!

1)  Ottawa -1' winner

BC defense wins the game for them, as they dominate the offensive line of the Redblacks.....Harris had no time to survey the field.   And, Jennings didn't blow the game for BC after Travis Lulay goes down, which is a very good thing.   

Wally's on field decisions these days are pretty terrible....couldn't have challenged the hit on Lulay, faked a field goal that didn't work, often goes for two points after a first score, etc., etc. 

Still contemplating whether I will make plays tomorrow.

This is the only indicative query that I could find where there was a sniff of an advantage.  The sample size is very small, which may keep me from making a play.....some people insist that at least 100 games should be in a query to make it predictive.....I don't agree with them, at least in making CFL plays.  Still, there has to be at least some data for me to make a play, and I saved myself a loss today, having made a O/U line of 55 for the Lions/Redblacks game but having a 100+ query that strongly supported the UNDER.   It made a  possible  OVER play today a no-play.

Best case scenario is that the line and the data agree.

Anyway, here is the query.

p:ADL and HD and po:team = o:team and DIV  and pp:L

A back-to-back game where the home dog in a divisional match-up lost last week (to the same team they play this week) and also lost their previous game before that, so our team is on at least a two game losing streak.

6-3 ATS (+6.50), 5-4 straight up (+2.67) and 3-6 O/U (-8.17)     fits the  Argos and the Eskimos

Home favorites in this situation (Bombers) have been 2-3 ATS and 2-3 O/U.

Grey Posse mentioned that UNDERs have dominated in back-to-backs....looks like the data supports that going 5-10 O/U.

Late to the party, but I'm playing these:

2)  Toronto +5'

3)  Toronto/Hamilton UNDER 53 

Big plays are a killer to UNDERs...and they had an overabundance of them last week.  We'll expect that two pretty good defenses to prevail tomorrow.

Indigo line was Argos +2' and for the most part those lines have been profitable when diverging from Mister Bookie's lines by more than a point and a half.

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

"Who you are tomorrow begins with what you do today."

Tim Fargo

Nice winner last night on the Lions.  You posted Ottawa but I knew what you meant

"Nice winner last night on the Lions.  You posted Ottawa but I knew what you meant"

Yes, correct, I went back on the threads and had "Lions -1", so at least that part was correct.

Plays:

1)  Lions -1'  winner

2)  Argos +5'

3)  Argon/Tiger Cats UNDER 53

STD 33-20 ATS.

considering Stampeders UNDER and Sasquatches UNDER, but haven't made those plays yet.

Let's see some winners today!

1)  Lions -1' winner

2)  Argos +5' loser

3)  Argos/TCs UNDER loser

1-2 for the week

33-22 ATS for the season, college picks were bad as well.