CFL WEEK 18 (46-21)

The Bombers got by the Argos who were cycling backups through their lineup, the Riders got crushed by BC in what was a more lopsided game then the final score indicated, the Alouettes pushed around the RedBlacks with their defense for a comfortable win and the Ti-Cats defended their home turf and beat the Stamps.

Man it sucks George Reed passed away. He will always be a legend in Riderville. May you rest in peace.

I am heading to Vegas for 8 days on Sunday so I won't be posting a write-up next week but I will get on to post my picks, teasers and if I have any important thoughts on next week. Going to the MNF Packers Raiders game and opening night of the Golden Knights!

Week 18, all picks moneyline with ATS/spread discussion below:

TORONTO
Toronto looked great cycling backups through their lineup last week, particularly their defense. I didn't see that coming. If it weren't for Dinwiddie benching Dukes near the end of the game, Toronto may of well won the game. Dukes played great going 17/24 for 231 yards and 1 TD. As for this game we aren't sure whose playing for the Argos, but they are celebrating their 150th anniversary and are going to have their Argo alumni in the house for this game.

Edmonton is coming off the bye and teams are now 13-5 off the bye. The Elks started the season 0-9 and have went 4-2 since. I like Toronto in this game but likely will avoid betting it as we don't know who Dinwiddie is going to play and for how long especially at QB, and if it's Bryan Scott he is awful and needs way more reps. Edmonton has a 1.56% chance of making the playoffs. There is no line out as of Thurs morning for this game, who knows who Toronto will throw out there but this being the Argos 150th Anniversary I am rolling with them to win.
30-24 Argos

WINNIPEG
We've all been waiting for this one! The season series is tied 1-1 and this game will likely determine the West. The Lions won back in week 3 by 24 points (30-6) and the Bombers won in week 9 by 36 points (50-14). Both games were blowouts. Winnipeg had a scare last week almost losing to some of Toronto's backups, but they could of possibly had one eye looking ahead at this weeks game to determine the West. Oliviera was a beast last week rushing for 169 yards on 25 carries.

BC steamrolled my Riders after the Riders made the game a bit close with 15 garbage time points. It was 33-12 with 1:17 remaining. The Riders did the same thing the week before, get blown out then make it a close game in the last 2 minutes. BC needs a run game bad, Mizzell had 10 carries for 38 yards and Adams threw for 458 yards and 3 TDs. BC can't keep maintaining 300+ passing yards of offense with no run game when they have to play Winnipeg/Toronto in the playoffs/Grey Cup. That will be the difference in this game, Winnipeg has the best run game in the league next to Toronto and BCs run game is non-existent. Both teams have great passing offenses and I give the edge to Winnipeg's defense as the Lions defense has really tapered off from the beginning of the year. Winnipeg covers +1.
31-26 Bombers

SASKATCHEWAN
It is going to be a super emotional night at Mosaic on Saturday night with George Reed's passing on Sunday. There has been no other Rider that was held to such a high regard on and off the field as George even returned back to Regina in 2009 to make Regina his permanent home. When I worked at Casino Regina when I was younger, George Reed actually worked there too as a corporate event host and he was just a pleasure to be around. The Riders will also have a bunch of players from their 2013 Grey Cup winning team in attendance celebrating the 10 year anniversary of the last time the Riders won the Grey Cup (and last season of Taylor Field, their old stadium). The Riders have looked awful for the past month, but they won't look anywhere near that for this game. Dolegalo threw for 409 yards and 2 INTs last week in a losing effort. The Riders are in the driver's seat for the final playoff spot and have an 88.08% chance of qualifying.

Hamilton got by the Stamps last week and are in the playoffs and fighting with the Alouettes for 2nd place for the right to a home playoff game. Hamilton has an 11.46% chance of hosting a home playoff game. The Ti-Cats need to finish ahead of the Alouettes in the standings since Montreal claimed the season series earlier in the year. Powell only played briefly last week who got replaced by Shiltz. Bo-Levi is practising but still not ready to play. Shiltz will likely get the start for this game. This is one of those games just like Labour Day where you don't bet against the Riders. The Riders all time great just passed away and are celebrating 10 years since hoisting the cup, there is going to be a lot of powerful feelings and history coming together in this one. Why else would the Riders be -3.5 point favorites?! Riders cover -3.5.
29-19 Riders

MONTREAL
The streakiest team in the CFL is on another win streak. Montreal started the season with 2 wins, 3 losses, 4 wins, 4 losses and now 2 wins and are coming into this game with a 6 turnover, 2 TD, 5 sack showing against the RedBlacks. Montreal played hard nose defense holding Crum to 247 yards passing and 35 yards rushing. They have a great defense and can pound Stanbeck on offense and let Fajardo manage the game. I see a similar repeat this week of last. Montreal is still fighting Hamilton for 2nd place in the East. It's pretty easy to stop Ottawa since they can't establish the running game most times and their defensive secondary is not great. Ottawa has a 0.04% chance of making the playoffs and Montreal has a 88.54% chance to host a home playoff game. What the heck was up with that dribble kick by Jeshrun Antwi?! I wonder if we will start seeing that more! Montreal covers -6.5.
28-17 Alouettes

TEASER (7 pts): 2-0 last week, 21-7 overall
WPG +8
SK +3.5
MTL +0.5

TOP OFFENSIVE GRADE: Winnipeg Blue Bombers - BC could of gotten the nod but giving it to Winnipeg for not being one-dimensional on offense and playing stiffer competition in Toronto. BC needs a run game, how much longer can they sustain 300+ pass yards and under 50 rush yards/game with a defense that's regressed a lot since the beginning of the year?

TOP DEFENSIVE GRADE: Montreal Alouettes - 6 turnovers including 2 INTs in the redzone with one of them being a pick six, 2 TDs and 5 sacks last week against Ottawa holding them to 15 points. Crum even threw a pass off of the goalpost in the endzone which got intercepted but didn't count as it was a dead ball as soon as it hit the post. This score could of also been a lot worse had Cote not missed 3 field goals.

BYE WEEK: Calgary Stampeders - it sucks to be the Stamps right now coming off another loss, being helpless this week and hoping the Riders lose to Hamilton. They have 2 great RBs but aren't feeding them enough, and Maier doesn't have it (yet anyways). Calgary has a 10.32% chance of making the playoffs and need a whole lot to happen to qualify. Their season is all but over, along with a 17 year run at making the playoffs.

POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 17 (# in brackets shows previous weeks ranking):
1)Toronto (1)
2)Winnipeg (2)
3)BC (3)
4)Montreal (4)
5)Hamilton (5)
6)Saskatchewan (6)
7)Edmonton (7)
8)Ottawa (8)
9)Calgary (9)

For the first time since I've done power rankings there is no changes from last week to this week. I believe all of the teams are exactly where they should be at this point in the season. Toronto stays at 1 with an impressive showing last week in Winnipeg with the Bombers coming off a bye in a must win game and the Argos playing backups. Winnipeg stays at 2 as they pulled through for a huge win to stay in contention for 1st in the West. BC stays at 3 with an easy win against the Riders and Montreal stays at 4 with a dominant win over Ottawa. Montreal cannot move any higher then 4 since they haven't beaten any of the top 3 teams all year. Hamilton stays at 5 coming off a win against Calgary and are just a few small steps behind Montreal. The Riders stay at 6 even though they lost, they hold the 6th and final playoff spot and are still better then Ottawa, Edmonton and Calgary overall. Edmonton stays at 7 as they really turned it up the 2nd half of the season when they started Tre. Ottawa stays at 8 coming off a blowout loss. Calgary stays at 9 as they continue to lose games they must win and are now on a 3 game losing streak.

Good luck!

Great Material once again!!

Thank you sir!  Good luck this week.

@slushie007

 Good luck with your picks! 

Good job Slushie  

Hope you can join Chef live for a game sometime.