Ottawa at Montreal PK O/U 54
The Ottawa Redblacks managed to avenge their Grey Cup defeat last week as they beat the Edmonton Eskimos in overtime. Huge win for this team to start the season, but it has situationally opened a door in which to fade them this week.
That game against the Esks was, by far, the game of the week in the CFL. The manner in which Ottawa won that game was nothing short of breathtaking. They needed a 55 yard field goal at the gun from Chris Milo just to get the game to OT. They then had all the momentum, and subsequently emerged victorious in extra time. Now, five days later, they have to come across the country and play another road game against a team playing in their home opener. This has letdown spot written all over it if you ask me.
The Redblacks had a distinct advantage in that game against the Eskimos. Their passing attack against that rebulit defensive backfield of the Esks was, and turned out to be, a huge mismatch in favor of them. I don't imagine they will be able to throw for 522 yards against this Als defense. They also turned the ball over three more times than Edmonton did. Again, do that against this Als defense and the results will most likely be different.
If you read my East Division preview thread, or my futures thread, you should be quite familiar with how I feel about the Als this season. They, arguably, have the best receiving corps in the league. Edmonton basically had Adarius Bowman and Derel Walker, and the Esks still threw for 374 yards against this Redblacks defense. I am really interested in seeing how the combination of Duron Carter, SJ Green, Nik Lewis, Kenny Stafford, and Sam Giguere do against them. Especially if Tyrell Sutton is doing his thing on the ground.
I wasn't surprised in the least to see this game come out at a PK, even though I had the visitors as slight road faves. Going by my early numbers, one could argue I see value with the Redblacks. However, the situation and circumstances they are facing this week is too great for me to ignore. Enough, so much, that I am making this my first two unit play of the season.
Play: Montreal Alouettes PK -106
Risking 2.12 units to win 2 units
Good luck, and as always, GET THAT CASH!!!!
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