The teams I backed this past week in the CFL, NFL and NCAA missed about 13 kicks, extra points and field goals, ....really strange.
Hamilton blew their game and the chances of getting a Eastern Finals home game in losing to the Redblacks.....instead they will likely host a semi against a Western team, unless Ottawa were to lose their next two games and the Cats win their next two.
Sasakatchewan looked like a champion in their game versus the Stamps, but how often does Zach play like he did in that game? All of the other peices are there for the Sasquatches.
Calgary is swooning....it hurts when your four top receivers are out, but their staple, the defense has not looked elite like they normally would. Usually as the season progresses fatigue and injuries take their toll and early season dominance is alleviated somewhat, but this kind of performance must be a bit unnerving to the Calgary fans based on what's happened the last couple of years.
Indigo lines
Winnipeg -1' Calgary 52
Hamilton -7 Ottawa 54
Saskatchewan -5 British Columbia 50
Montreal -2 Toronto 52
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
38-28 ATS for the season.....
The teams I backed this past week in the CFL, NFL and NCAA missed about 13 kicks, extra points and field goals, ....really strange.
Hamilton blew their game and the chances of getting a Eastern Finals home game in losing to the Redblacks.....instead they will likely host a semi against a Western team, unless Ottawa were to lose their next two games and the Cats win their next two.
Sasakatchewan looked like a champion in their game versus the Stamps, but how often does Zach play like he did in that game? All of the other peices are there for the Sasquatches.
Calgary is swooning....it hurts when your four top receivers are out, but their staple, the defense has not looked elite like they normally would. Usually as the season progresses fatigue and injuries take their toll and early season dominance is alleviated somewhat, but this kind of performance must be a bit unnerving to the Calgary fans based on what's happened the last couple of years.
Teams playing a back-to-back as home favorites that lost on the road as dogs last week have been 23-24-1 ATS and 23-25 o/u. This moves to 3-3 ATS and 4-2 o/u in October games, so no advantage there. (Tiger Cats, Alouettes)
A home divisional favorite that has the greater winning percentage than their opponent has been 72-96-4 ATS, (-1.66) and 72-98-2 O/U (-1.89) (Riders) This moves to 21-31-2 in October games and 25-29 O/U.
HF and DIV and tA(W)>oA(W)
Home favorites with the lesser record (Argos, Tiger Cats and Bombers) have been 7-8 ATS in October
HF and DIV and tA(W)<oA(W) and month=10
One of the greatest stats to fade is yards per pass margin. If our team has the advantage in the year-to-date stats and they are a home favorite their record is 80-106 ATS (-1.84) This week that is the Alouettes and the Tiger Cats.
DIV and playoffs = 0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0
The natural inclination would be to take the Tiger Cats and the Argos in an immediate revenge situation, but those teams with the better passing margins as home divisional favorites have only been 4-6 ATS and 6-4 O/U.
DIV and playoffs=0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0 and po:team=o:team
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Teams playing a back-to-back as home favorites that lost on the road as dogs last week have been 23-24-1 ATS and 23-25 o/u. This moves to 3-3 ATS and 4-2 o/u in October games, so no advantage there. (Tiger Cats, Alouettes)
A home divisional favorite that has the greater winning percentage than their opponent has been 72-96-4 ATS, (-1.66) and 72-98-2 O/U (-1.89) (Riders) This moves to 21-31-2 in October games and 25-29 O/U.
HF and DIV and tA(W)>oA(W)
Home favorites with the lesser record (Argos, Tiger Cats and Bombers) have been 7-8 ATS in October
HF and DIV and tA(W)<oA(W) and month=10
One of the greatest stats to fade is yards per pass margin. If our team has the advantage in the year-to-date stats and they are a home favorite their record is 80-106 ATS (-1.84) This week that is the Alouettes and the Tiger Cats.
DIV and playoffs = 0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0
The natural inclination would be to take the Tiger Cats and the Argos in an immediate revenge situation, but those teams with the better passing margins as home divisional favorites have only been 4-6 ATS and 6-4 O/U.
DIV and playoffs=0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0 and po:team=o:team
Teams with the worse passing margin and the worse record as home divisional favorites (Bombers) have been 25-22 ATS and 19-28 ATS, 4-7 ATS and 6-5 O/U in October
DIV and playoffs = 0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) < 0 and tA(W) < oA(W) and month=10
Teams with the worse passing margin but the better winning percentage and home divisional favorites have been 26-24 ATS and 15-34 O/U (Roughriders)
DIV and playoffs = 0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) < 0 and tA(W)>oA(W)
Play:
1) Riders UNDER 51'
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Teams with the worse passing margin and the worse record as home divisional favorites (Bombers) have been 25-22 ATS and 19-28 ATS, 4-7 ATS and 6-5 O/U in October
DIV and playoffs = 0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) < 0 and tA(W) < oA(W) and month=10
Teams with the worse passing margin but the better winning percentage and home divisional favorites have been 26-24 ATS and 15-34 O/U (Roughriders)
DIV and playoffs = 0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) < 0 and tA(W)>oA(W)
Home divisional favorites that have a worse defense (points per game) have been 47-74 ATS (Bombers) and 53-70 O/U. In October this moves to 6-18 ATS and 12-14 O/U.
DIV and playoffs = 0 and DIV and tA(o:points) > oA(o:points) and HF
Play:
2) Stampeders +3'
We'll hope that Bo Levi figures it out with his receivers.
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Home divisional favorites that have a worse defense (points per game) have been 47-74 ATS (Bombers) and 53-70 O/U. In October this moves to 6-18 ATS and 12-14 O/U.
DIV and playoffs = 0 and DIV and tA(o:points) > oA(o:points) and HF
Play:
2) Stampeders +3'
We'll hope that Bo Levi figures it out with his receivers.
Like the Calgary pick. Winnipeg just back to practice today after a bye. Probably tough to keep the momentum (and playoff like edge) they possessed for the past 4 consecutive wins. Getting the field goal and the hook is a bonus as I expected -2 to +2 either way.
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Like the Calgary pick. Winnipeg just back to practice today after a bye. Probably tough to keep the momentum (and playoff like edge) they possessed for the past 4 consecutive wins. Getting the field goal and the hook is a bonus as I expected -2 to +2 either way.
hey indigo, cheers on your hard work in this forum
was curious on your take for the grey cup final..its about that time for me, looking to pound some futures SU and perhaps in some other league parlays..i'm looking for value here..
i think winnipeg is capable at +700..personally i can see the roughriders pulling it out but little value on them i shoulda pulled the trigger earlier but better late than never..both ottawa and hamilton have garbage defences so no value on them either
bc has no qb so they're off my list
cheers mate
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hey indigo, cheers on your hard work in this forum
was curious on your take for the grey cup final..its about that time for me, looking to pound some futures SU and perhaps in some other league parlays..i'm looking for value here..
i think winnipeg is capable at +700..personally i can see the roughriders pulling it out but little value on them i shoulda pulled the trigger earlier but better late than never..both ottawa and hamilton have garbage defences so no value on them either
I would make Winnipeg the favorite to win the Grey Cup.....hurts though that their stud do-everything strong side linebacker/strong safety Mo Liggett is out, probably for the season.
Here's another query relating to college football.....we are looking to fade a team that started the season with at least 5 straight wins, then lost their last game....those teams go flat as a pancake in conference game their next game. We exclude December games and games where they are the away dog.
t:wins>4 and p:L and not AD and t:losses=1 and C and month<12 and day=Saturday and site
The ATS record of those teams in the various sites....
neutral 1-5 ATS Georgia Bulldogs
home 67-91-2 ATS Ohio State next week
away 34-50-1 ATS Cincinnati Bearcats, NC State Wolfpack
The West Virginia Mountaineers are also part of this, however their game is on a Thursday and there's not enough data to know if this holds up in non-Saturday games.
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I would make Winnipeg the favorite to win the Grey Cup.....hurts though that their stud do-everything strong side linebacker/strong safety Mo Liggett is out, probably for the season.
Here's another query relating to college football.....we are looking to fade a team that started the season with at least 5 straight wins, then lost their last game....those teams go flat as a pancake in conference game their next game. We exclude December games and games where they are the away dog.
t:wins>4 and p:L and not AD and t:losses=1 and C and month<12 and day=Saturday and site
The ATS record of those teams in the various sites....
neutral 1-5 ATS Georgia Bulldogs
home 67-91-2 ATS Ohio State next week
away 34-50-1 ATS Cincinnati Bearcats, NC State Wolfpack
The West Virginia Mountaineers are also part of this, however their game is on a Thursday and there's not enough data to know if this holds up in non-Saturday games.
Dogs of >=13 points in the NFL have been 48-304-1, winning straight up 13.6% of the time, losing by an average of 14.18 points/game with an average line of 14.6.
Their true line should be +735, so if you'd want a mathematical +EV you should be getting greater than +735.
Their ATS record has been 180-167.
The query language is...
D and line>=13
You're not betting your bankroll on the Buffalo Bills are you?
In college football, underdogs between 10-20 points, with an average line of +13.9 win straight up 16.6% of the time.
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Dogs of >=13 points in the NFL have been 48-304-1, winning straight up 13.6% of the time, losing by an average of 14.18 points/game with an average line of 14.6.
Their true line should be +735, so if you'd want a mathematical +EV you should be getting greater than +735.
Their ATS record has been 180-167.
The query language is...
D and line>=13
You're not betting your bankroll on the Buffalo Bills are you?
In college football, underdogs between 10-20 points, with an average line of +13.9 win straight up 16.6% of the time.
Dogs of >=13 points in the NFL have been 48-304-1, winning straight up 13.6% of the time, losing by an average of 14.18 points/game with an average line of 14.6. Their true line should be +735, so if you'd want a mathematical +EV you should be getting greater than +735. Their ATS record has been 180-167. The query language is... D and line>=13 You're not betting your bankroll on the Buffalo Bills are you? In college football, underdogs between 10-20 points, with an average line of +13.9 win straight up 16.6% of the time.
Thx you very much Indigo actually just thinking of betting against Buffalo but wanted to see what the ATS record was that I'm going against. Actually thought dogs getting 13pts or more would be higher than 52% ATS record but surprisingly it's not.
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Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
Dogs of >=13 points in the NFL have been 48-304-1, winning straight up 13.6% of the time, losing by an average of 14.18 points/game with an average line of 14.6. Their true line should be +735, so if you'd want a mathematical +EV you should be getting greater than +735. Their ATS record has been 180-167. The query language is... D and line>=13 You're not betting your bankroll on the Buffalo Bills are you? In college football, underdogs between 10-20 points, with an average line of +13.9 win straight up 16.6% of the time.
Thx you very much Indigo actually just thinking of betting against Buffalo but wanted to see what the ATS record was that I'm going against. Actually thought dogs getting 13pts or more would be higher than 52% ATS record but surprisingly it's not.
Here is an NFL query relevant to two games tomorrow.....
AD and not DIV and and line>=3 and playoffs=0 month<12 and p:W and t:wins=t:losses and tA(W)<=oA(W)
51-34-2 ATS....indicated teams this week are the Seahawks and Bucs
Decoding this...
1) Non-divisional away dog of >=3 points in a regular season game
2) not including December games
3) our away dog just won their last game to get to .500 winning percentage
4) our away dog has a less than or equal to winning percentage to their present opponent
The ATS margin average is not all that great (+1.07), the average line has been 6.3 and the average score has been 19.3-24.5, those indicated teams have been 25-61 straight up (-5.20)
Good fortune whatever you decide to do.
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Here is an NFL query relevant to two games tomorrow.....
AD and not DIV and and line>=3 and playoffs=0 month<12 and p:W and t:wins=t:losses and tA(W)<=oA(W)
51-34-2 ATS....indicated teams this week are the Seahawks and Bucs
Decoding this...
1) Non-divisional away dog of >=3 points in a regular season game
2) not including December games
3) our away dog just won their last game to get to .500 winning percentage
4) our away dog has a less than or equal to winning percentage to their present opponent
The ATS margin average is not all that great (+1.07), the average line has been 6.3 and the average score has been 19.3-24.5, those indicated teams have been 25-61 straight up (-5.20)
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