For starters a little self analysis ... fell in love with the overs last week and that got me into trouble with the last game of the week EDM/HAM...thought they would all push over (like Week 2 in 2009) but clearly on the wrong side and total of that game...first truly "off" play of the season cost me 2 bets
Seven plays was a little reckless and that is a weakness of mine, falling in love with a few too many plays and trying to run the table
So the lesson learned...quality not quantity. Stick to your guns. 4-1 on totals, 1-4 on sides thus far (3-1 on top opinions that were not plays).
B.C. / EDMONTON OVER 54 110/100
Yes I know that more games go under than over the total , and yes I know you can't make a living blindly picking overs. However, I don't these teams should have a problem reaching 27 points apiece. BC has one of the weaker secondaries thanks to new personnel and injuries. MTL had a field day as did Calgary in the 2 half. I do believe Hamilton has more talent on D and Ricky Ray and Jerome Messem shredded them.
B.C. has all but abandoned the run early season and is throwing the ball 40-45 times per game. Lulay and the offense are a force and barring some self-inflicted wounds (turnovers and drops) will score some points. K McCallum will bang through 3 points when the drives stall. The EDM defense is a patchwork bunch, and this will be their best and fastest offense faced to date (SAK is capable, scored 28, HAM is in disarray).
This series has gone OVER the total 5 of the last 6 times the past 2 seasons (totals have been 54, 54, 52.5, 51.5, 54.5) which is right where the total is this week. I see no reason to think these teams will score less points that in the past two years with improved offenses and worse defenses.
The public has already swung this line 1.5 points lower and I do believe our devoted Covers brothers are smarter than that. Fade the public BC 32 EDM 28 and we take the OVER.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
5-5 -50 (8-6)
For starters a little self analysis ... fell in love with the overs last week and that got me into trouble with the last game of the week EDM/HAM...thought they would all push over (like Week 2 in 2009) but clearly on the wrong side and total of that game...first truly "off" play of the season cost me 2 bets
Seven plays was a little reckless and that is a weakness of mine, falling in love with a few too many plays and trying to run the table
So the lesson learned...quality not quantity. Stick to your guns. 4-1 on totals, 1-4 on sides thus far (3-1 on top opinions that were not plays).
B.C. / EDMONTON OVER 54 110/100
Yes I know that more games go under than over the total , and yes I know you can't make a living blindly picking overs. However, I don't these teams should have a problem reaching 27 points apiece. BC has one of the weaker secondaries thanks to new personnel and injuries. MTL had a field day as did Calgary in the 2 half. I do believe Hamilton has more talent on D and Ricky Ray and Jerome Messem shredded them.
B.C. has all but abandoned the run early season and is throwing the ball 40-45 times per game. Lulay and the offense are a force and barring some self-inflicted wounds (turnovers and drops) will score some points. K McCallum will bang through 3 points when the drives stall. The EDM defense is a patchwork bunch, and this will be their best and fastest offense faced to date (SAK is capable, scored 28, HAM is in disarray).
This series has gone OVER the total 5 of the last 6 times the past 2 seasons (totals have been 54, 54, 52.5, 51.5, 54.5) which is right where the total is this week. I see no reason to think these teams will score less points that in the past two years with improved offenses and worse defenses.
The public has already swung this line 1.5 points lower and I do believe our devoted Covers brothers are smarter than that. Fade the public BC 32 EDM 28 and we take the OVER.
I don't have a feel for the other games on the board this week but I sure do have a feel for the Als and they are rolling. Toronto will be the stiffest defense Montreal has faced, but I'm not sure it will matter. The talent differences are immense. Calvillo has come out house on fire and his line gives him all day to throw. Whittaker is a stud, he is running catching and pass protecting and they are not missing a beat after Cobourne left.
While the MON defense has not been stout, Toronto's offense has been abysmal. You can win some games with mediocre QB play, but its hard to be great in a passing league without it.
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Adding
Montreal -9.5 vs. Toronto 120/100
I don't have a feel for the other games on the board this week but I sure do have a feel for the Als and they are rolling. Toronto will be the stiffest defense Montreal has faced, but I'm not sure it will matter. The talent differences are immense. Calvillo has come out house on fire and his line gives him all day to throw. Whittaker is a stud, he is running catching and pass protecting and they are not missing a beat after Cobourne left.
While the MON defense has not been stout, Toronto's offense has been abysmal. You can win some games with mediocre QB play, but its hard to be great in a passing league without it.
Toronto's strength entering the season was supposed to be its power running game. Scratch that after being stuffed three times last week in KEY short yardage situations. The OL is in disaray allowing 7 (!) sacks. HC Barker making some questionable decisions leading to 3 points in the first half. I don't think Toronto can match Montreal if this leads towards a shootout. They will have to slow the game down control the clock and get GREAT defensive play.
Oh wait, it might be hard to run the ball effectively this week because Cory Boyd is likely out and in will be Chad Kackhart. Good luck with that. Montreal has allowed 67.5 rushing yards through 2 games (granted to 1 team that doesn't run and another with a weaker run game). If Toronto refuses to get creative they will struggle mightily on offense to keep up in a shootout.
Montreal is very focused and although it is the regular season and they have bigger goals in mind I do believe they will roll.
Looking at past history TOR is 2-9 ATS in past meetings. To me that doesn't mean much because in 2009 Toronto was a god-awful football team. What I look at is 2010. The playoff meeting saw both teams play their highest caliber football and MON blew them out the building. I will still throw that out because Week 3 is much different than the playoffs. I will also throw out TOR's 30-4 win in the last week because it was a meaningless game for MON.
TOR actually covered twice and actually won once outright last year, but both at home. This game is on the road, and last time in a similar spot TOR +10.5 got crushed 41-10. THAT is very meaningful to me. There has been no line adjustment (actually -10 is still very much out there). I know that 10 points is a bunch of points in a division game, but I really like the Als both fundamentally and technically.
My only regret is not catching this before it moved to 10, I posted the first post too soon I am not going to buy the half point to move it off the key number 10 (trying my hardest not to bet into bad numbers this season), I still like my chances with Tom Brady and the Pats
Montreal -10 vs. Toronto 110/100
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Sorry, continued
Toronto's strength entering the season was supposed to be its power running game. Scratch that after being stuffed three times last week in KEY short yardage situations. The OL is in disaray allowing 7 (!) sacks. HC Barker making some questionable decisions leading to 3 points in the first half. I don't think Toronto can match Montreal if this leads towards a shootout. They will have to slow the game down control the clock and get GREAT defensive play.
Oh wait, it might be hard to run the ball effectively this week because Cory Boyd is likely out and in will be Chad Kackhart. Good luck with that. Montreal has allowed 67.5 rushing yards through 2 games (granted to 1 team that doesn't run and another with a weaker run game). If Toronto refuses to get creative they will struggle mightily on offense to keep up in a shootout.
Montreal is very focused and although it is the regular season and they have bigger goals in mind I do believe they will roll.
Looking at past history TOR is 2-9 ATS in past meetings. To me that doesn't mean much because in 2009 Toronto was a god-awful football team. What I look at is 2010. The playoff meeting saw both teams play their highest caliber football and MON blew them out the building. I will still throw that out because Week 3 is much different than the playoffs. I will also throw out TOR's 30-4 win in the last week because it was a meaningless game for MON.
TOR actually covered twice and actually won once outright last year, but both at home. This game is on the road, and last time in a similar spot TOR +10.5 got crushed 41-10. THAT is very meaningful to me. There has been no line adjustment (actually -10 is still very much out there). I know that 10 points is a bunch of points in a division game, but I really like the Als both fundamentally and technically.
My only regret is not catching this before it moved to 10, I posted the first post too soon I am not going to buy the half point to move it off the key number 10 (trying my hardest not to bet into bad numbers this season), I still like my chances with Tom Brady and the Pats
I truly believe Marc Trestman would excel as a head coach in the NFL.
I think he was an offensive coordinator in the NFL for one year and that was when the Raiders went to the Super Bowl in 2001 or 2002 and Gannon was the MVP.
If I'm an NFL team I am pounding at this guys door.
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I truly believe Marc Trestman would excel as a head coach in the NFL.
I think he was an offensive coordinator in the NFL for one year and that was when the Raiders went to the Super Bowl in 2001 or 2002 and Gannon was the MVP.
If I'm an NFL team I am pounding at this guys door.
I don't like hacking off other peoples work but the gambler in me says one more play making 3 this week. We stayed in our goal of being more selective this week, and I feel confident these 3 games will get us on the right side of the ledger.
Adding Calgary -3 over Winnipeg
Yes, the Winnipeg D has been flying around but this was against TORONTO and HAMILTON. Calgary will represent the stiffest test to date and they are finding their groove. Run game has been decently effective, especially in both 2nd Halves. Look out for Rambo back in the lineup he is waiting to break out a la Richardson and Green, just another weapon for Burris to have at his disposal.
Yes the Calgary D has not been the best, but it isn't like teams are running up and down the field. 307 yards to Toronto and 311 to pass-happy B.C. This is now the Winnipeg offense that we are talking about. Doubt they get 300. With Reid and Poblah most likely out, the DBs can key on Edwards knowing that the Bombers lack any true downfield threats. WPG is in no position to outscore Calgary in any type of shootout. It will need a near perfect effort from the D and special teams, and turnover free football to keep this game close.
Basically the fundamental handicapping says Calgary has much more talent on Offense vs. the WPG Defense. The Calgary D is "average-to-above average", while the WPG offense is brutal at best.
I don't think Calgary can turn the ball over 5 times again and win (can teams really do that????) but I don't think they will either.
These teams play just twice a year so giving up 3 points is not too much and despite playing on the road I think Calgary clearly is the better team. My favorite to win the West over the team still pegged for 3rd or 4th in the East (thanks, Hamilton) despite an opportunistic 2-0 start.
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I don't like hacking off other peoples work but the gambler in me says one more play making 3 this week. We stayed in our goal of being more selective this week, and I feel confident these 3 games will get us on the right side of the ledger.
Adding Calgary -3 over Winnipeg
Yes, the Winnipeg D has been flying around but this was against TORONTO and HAMILTON. Calgary will represent the stiffest test to date and they are finding their groove. Run game has been decently effective, especially in both 2nd Halves. Look out for Rambo back in the lineup he is waiting to break out a la Richardson and Green, just another weapon for Burris to have at his disposal.
Yes the Calgary D has not been the best, but it isn't like teams are running up and down the field. 307 yards to Toronto and 311 to pass-happy B.C. This is now the Winnipeg offense that we are talking about. Doubt they get 300. With Reid and Poblah most likely out, the DBs can key on Edwards knowing that the Bombers lack any true downfield threats. WPG is in no position to outscore Calgary in any type of shootout. It will need a near perfect effort from the D and special teams, and turnover free football to keep this game close.
Basically the fundamental handicapping says Calgary has much more talent on Offense vs. the WPG Defense. The Calgary D is "average-to-above average", while the WPG offense is brutal at best.
I don't think Calgary can turn the ball over 5 times again and win (can teams really do that????) but I don't think they will either.
These teams play just twice a year so giving up 3 points is not too much and despite playing on the road I think Calgary clearly is the better team. My favorite to win the West over the team still pegged for 3rd or 4th in the East (thanks, Hamilton) despite an opportunistic 2-0 start.
Good to get back on the wining side of the ledger. Now we can watch the doubleheader tomorrow needing just the OVER in the EDM/SAK game.
7-6 +40 (10-7)
Adding Sakatchewan +3 over Hamilton 120/100 buying the '
While I still have slid the Riders into my 3rd place position in the West behind Calgary and Edmonton I think Hamilton is in total disarray. I think we have a good read on this team during Week 3 already. I do not think this is a team that will win games down the stretch unless major issues are sorted out. QB Glenn is struggling as is the talented defense. Arland Bruce is also out for the Year. SAK will struggle plenty this year especially on defense (read Andarmacs stuff on them very good) but not this week.
This is probably a good situation to buy a half point moving an underdog from +2.5 to 3 since many more games land on 3 than 2 (at least in the NFL I would expect the CFL too maybe I'm wrong)
So I will do that taking SAK +3 120/110
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Good to get back on the wining side of the ledger. Now we can watch the doubleheader tomorrow needing just the OVER in the EDM/SAK game.
7-6 +40 (10-7)
Adding Sakatchewan +3 over Hamilton 120/100 buying the '
While I still have slid the Riders into my 3rd place position in the West behind Calgary and Edmonton I think Hamilton is in total disarray. I think we have a good read on this team during Week 3 already. I do not think this is a team that will win games down the stretch unless major issues are sorted out. QB Glenn is struggling as is the talented defense. Arland Bruce is also out for the Year. SAK will struggle plenty this year especially on defense (read Andarmacs stuff on them very good) but not this week.
This is probably a good situation to buy a half point moving an underdog from +2.5 to 3 since many more games land on 3 than 2 (at least in the NFL I would expect the CFL too maybe I'm wrong)
B.C. is due for a win and while I don't want to bet against Edmonton which is on a roll, I do have B.C. highly rated and talented especially on offense against a pours EDM defense
I am not going to make this a play but I do believe the underdog will pull through with the outright win in both games on Saturday
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Top Opinion: BC +2.5 over Edmonton
B.C. is due for a win and while I don't want to bet against Edmonton which is on a roll, I do have B.C. highly rated and talented especially on offense against a pours EDM defense
I am not going to make this a play but I do believe the underdog will pull through with the outright win in both games on Saturday
I'm with you on both plays although my money is only on the SK game.
I'm thinking the Riders are going to have a break out game and I believe they will come out and make a statement. The CFL has a tendency to allow teams to close large gaps with small amounts of time left on the clock but I feel the Rider's will put up more than enough points to ward off a Hamilton comeback.
I loved the Argonauts tonight because they kept their offence on the field. They had the ball for the majority of the game. If the Rider's can execute on their 2nd down opportunities and make some catches that have been dropped in earlier games then they should command this game. Stevie Baggs is going to be tough to stop coming off the end but maybe he will take it easy on Durant tomorrow.
GO RIDERS GO
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I'm with you on both plays although my money is only on the SK game.
I'm thinking the Riders are going to have a break out game and I believe they will come out and make a statement. The CFL has a tendency to allow teams to close large gaps with small amounts of time left on the clock but I feel the Rider's will put up more than enough points to ward off a Hamilton comeback.
I loved the Argonauts tonight because they kept their offence on the field. They had the ball for the majority of the game. If the Rider's can execute on their 2nd down opportunities and make some catches that have been dropped in earlier games then they should command this game. Stevie Baggs is going to be tough to stop coming off the end but maybe he will take it easy on Durant tomorrow.
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B.C. / EDMONTON OVER 54 110/100
GL this week TC
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