I am only 52nd in the King of Covers contest....so there are some insanely good handicappers around, that if they don't own their own tropical islands by now they soon will.
Dogs that were <50% of the choice of covers consensus bettors in the CFL have been 9-1 so far this season, with the only loser being the Bombers last week @Calgary. I have made it a rule NOT play on consensus underdogs of over 57%. It is also a net loser in NCAA football to play those consensus dogs over the years and no more than break even in the NFL, so you are at a minimum donating juice to your bookie by playing those pretty underdogs. The only time I may make an exception to this rule is when it is a divisonal game in the NFL and even then I feel guilty for breaking a hard and fast rule that I use for myself. Ugly dogs pay better!
I will be playing the Sasquatches this week if they come a dog versus the Lions. I wouldn't expect underdogs to keep hitting like they have, so I will certainly be scaling back my plays. They can't keep hitting over 75% can they?
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I am only 52nd in the King of Covers contest....so there are some insanely good handicappers around, that if they don't own their own tropical islands by now they soon will.
Dogs that were <50% of the choice of covers consensus bettors in the CFL have been 9-1 so far this season, with the only loser being the Bombers last week @Calgary. I have made it a rule NOT play on consensus underdogs of over 57%. It is also a net loser in NCAA football to play those consensus dogs over the years and no more than break even in the NFL, so you are at a minimum donating juice to your bookie by playing those pretty underdogs. The only time I may make an exception to this rule is when it is a divisonal game in the NFL and even then I feel guilty for breaking a hard and fast rule that I use for myself. Ugly dogs pay better!
I will be playing the Sasquatches this week if they come a dog versus the Lions. I wouldn't expect underdogs to keep hitting like they have, so I will certainly be scaling back my plays. They can't keep hitting over 75% can they?
Great start to your season Indigo.. Line aren't out as yet but I do like all the games this week
Redblacks @ Argonauts: Two teams headed in the right direction so far. Argo's looked horrible week 1 but bounced back with 2 very good road wins. Redblacks look amazing and their offense is gelling really well. Very hard game to pick this one.
Eskimos @ Blue Bombers: Bombers coach said that his team needed to win last week and they did. You don't see them put up 25+ 2 weeks in a row. I think I might take the under in this game as the Eskies D has to show up sooner or later. Their D has been atriocious of late.
Tiger Cats @ Alouettes: All I can say is the Ti-Cats need Collaros back asap. Alouettes off the bye week. Tough call. I expect the line to be around a PK or maybe even Alouettes -2 or a very small fav in this one.
Lions @ Riders: last game of the weekend. Lions didn't show up last week whilst the Riders did and almost pulled off the win. This contest is going to be a game I am looking forward to watching for some strange reason. Like to see what the line is but Im guessing around -2 or -3 Lions. Riders might just get their first win of the season..
GL this week mate
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Great start to your season Indigo.. Line aren't out as yet but I do like all the games this week
Redblacks @ Argonauts: Two teams headed in the right direction so far. Argo's looked horrible week 1 but bounced back with 2 very good road wins. Redblacks look amazing and their offense is gelling really well. Very hard game to pick this one.
Eskimos @ Blue Bombers: Bombers coach said that his team needed to win last week and they did. You don't see them put up 25+ 2 weeks in a row. I think I might take the under in this game as the Eskies D has to show up sooner or later. Their D has been atriocious of late.
Tiger Cats @ Alouettes: All I can say is the Ti-Cats need Collaros back asap. Alouettes off the bye week. Tough call. I expect the line to be around a PK or maybe even Alouettes -2 or a very small fav in this one.
Lions @ Riders: last game of the weekend. Lions didn't show up last week whilst the Riders did and almost pulled off the win. This contest is going to be a game I am looking forward to watching for some strange reason. Like to see what the line is but Im guessing around -2 or -3 Lions. Riders might just get their first win of the season..
Obviously Sask did not become a dog and I am not the only one who had thoughts about the Sasquatches. There'd be worse things to do than taking points with Where's Wally of BC. Re-thinking the play.
Interested to see what happens with the TC/Als line, Early public opinion likes Montreal.
Would be surprised if I make a play on the Tor/Ott game.
Lesson learned in the CFL and WNBA from last week is to let public dictate where the line goes and take what the linemaker giveth towards game time.
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Obviously Sask did not become a dog and I am not the only one who had thoughts about the Sasquatches. There'd be worse things to do than taking points with Where's Wally of BC. Re-thinking the play.
Interested to see what happens with the TC/Als line, Early public opinion likes Montreal.
Would be surprised if I make a play on the Tor/Ott game.
Lesson learned in the CFL and WNBA from last week is to let public dictate where the line goes and take what the linemaker giveth towards game time.
1) Edmonton -3, paid a lot of juice to keep it at three. I like teams that can score on the road,,....as defense wins at home and offense wins on the road. Look at Brees', the Mannings and Brady's road ATS records if you want to verify what I'm saying.
Big coaching difference as well, and even in winning last week I didn't like how the Bombers played. Historically the Bombers current coaching staff has been inept.
I've got a angle that has produced well for the road team in this scenario. Even if the Eskies defense allows a few, they have the O to outscore a team like the Bombers. Of course turnovers, biorhythms, sunspots or whatever can get in the way. I've got my money on the Eskimomos.
Hamilton +1.....gulping and taking the Tigercats, as teams that look awful one week magically look great the next in your/my CFL.
Let's hope Masoli can sort everything out, as he looks towards the sideline and sees Zach Callaros close to returning and having visions of his future of holding a clipboard for the rest of his career dancing in his head.
I don't trust the Als much more than the Bombers and this is just as much a bet against them as it is on a TC recovery. Tigercats out of the emergency room and back in the winner's circle.
Two indicated plays are the above games going UNDER 54' and 47...still deciding as first three weeks almost every game has gone under. For the KOC contest I've played them, but haven't put my money where my mouth is yet.
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Made two plays and contemplating some others.
1) Edmonton -3, paid a lot of juice to keep it at three. I like teams that can score on the road,,....as defense wins at home and offense wins on the road. Look at Brees', the Mannings and Brady's road ATS records if you want to verify what I'm saying.
Big coaching difference as well, and even in winning last week I didn't like how the Bombers played. Historically the Bombers current coaching staff has been inept.
I've got a angle that has produced well for the road team in this scenario. Even if the Eskies defense allows a few, they have the O to outscore a team like the Bombers. Of course turnovers, biorhythms, sunspots or whatever can get in the way. I've got my money on the Eskimomos.
Hamilton +1.....gulping and taking the Tigercats, as teams that look awful one week magically look great the next in your/my CFL.
Let's hope Masoli can sort everything out, as he looks towards the sideline and sees Zach Callaros close to returning and having visions of his future of holding a clipboard for the rest of his career dancing in his head.
I don't trust the Als much more than the Bombers and this is just as much a bet against them as it is on a TC recovery. Tigercats out of the emergency room and back in the winner's circle.
Two indicated plays are the above games going UNDER 54' and 47...still deciding as first three weeks almost every game has gone under. For the KOC contest I've played them, but haven't put my money where my mouth is yet.
3) Ottawa/Tor UNDER 52',,,....got some of this at 53' before the line moved, for record purposes it'll be 52'. Don't expect Ottawa's QB to stay on the pace he's been on...and Toronto and BC will be in the top 2 in defense by the end of the year.
4) Hamilton/Montreal UNDER 47, both offenses challenged and think conservative play calling and field position will happen.
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3) Ottawa/Tor UNDER 52',,,....got some of this at 53' before the line moved, for record purposes it'll be 52'. Don't expect Ottawa's QB to stay on the pace he's been on...and Toronto and BC will be in the top 2 in defense by the end of the year.
4) Hamilton/Montreal UNDER 47, both offenses challenged and think conservative play calling and field position will happen.
It gets difficult to stay on top all year. My advice now that you are in contention is just keep doing what you are doing. last years winer set a record of 20k won. usually the winner is between 12 and 15k. maybe the competition is getting better?
Right now with 3 weeks left in the season then playoffs I am currently 10th in the AFL. I am a football junkie I guess I had an incredible run going until last weeks 2-6
I like what you do in the forum and the forum is getting better and better! Its a nice small group and it feels good to share with good gents like yourself, Aussie, and Drivetime.
peace and happy capping!
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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It gets difficult to stay on top all year. My advice now that you are in contention is just keep doing what you are doing. last years winer set a record of 20k won. usually the winner is between 12 and 15k. maybe the competition is getting better?
Right now with 3 weeks left in the season then playoffs I am currently 10th in the AFL. I am a football junkie I guess I had an incredible run going until last weeks 2-6
I like what you do in the forum and the forum is getting better and better! Its a nice small group and it feels good to share with good gents like yourself, Aussie, and Drivetime.
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I had an incredible run going until last weeks 2-6 
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