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YTD: 1-4 (20%) -3.5 units
Tough one with the Eskimos last week, but I should've known better. They put up 39 and still can't get it done. They were up 14 at one point in the fourth quarter only to need a last second field goal and then win it in OT. Moving on.
I am not going to lie. I find this weeks' games very tricky. I have a bunch of leans, but I may just sit this week out. There was a total I was very interested in, but where the number is now looks pretty sharp. I should've jumped on the opening number on that total. Shoulda, woulda, coulda. This week, I deliver the coles notes version of my thoughts.
Ottawa at Toronto
I would love to fade the Redblacks this week. They find themselves in a similar spot as they were in week two. Hard fought, OT game on five days rest with travel (just not nearly as far this time). This is a spot I will fade eight times out of ten, but simply put, I just don't trust the Argos. They are on 6 days rest themselves, but they actually had to cross multiple time zones to get to this game, whereas the Redblacks just took a five hour trip down the 401. The Argos are off of back to back wins as road dogs, but looking closely at those games told me a different story. They were outplayed by Saskatchewan, but benefitted from turnovers. They weren't necessarily outplayed in BC, but again they won the turnover battle 4-0. To me, turnovers are 50% good play, and 50% luck. Point being, I am not completely sold on the Argos even though they got two nice wins out west. All this being said, I think the Redblacks find a way to get it done in this big early season game, as I see Trevor Harris playing with a chip on his shoulder in his return to Toronto as well. I am passing here though.
Edmonton at Winnipeg
Thursday's game is an interesting one. I would be playing the Bombers this week had they lost in Hamilton. Did they beat Hamilton? Or did Hamilton beat themselves? Hamilton turned the ball over 6 times last week. In Fact, they put the ball on the ground 4 times, and Winnipeg recovered those 50/50 balls all four times. The Bombers still just barely won, being outgained by almost 60 yards as well. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Also, when a team comes off an outright win as a 9 point road dog, I will automatically look to fade them. Have a feeling last week was the time to play Winnipeg. This week, not so sure.
Edmonton is coming off of an OT win in Chris Jones' return to Edmonton. They needed a last second field goal to salvage a chance in overtime after letting the Riders score 17 points to take the lead late in the game. Their defense has issues, and I don't think they will just magically solve everything in their first roadie of the season. However, the Esks are 0-2 against the number this year so there value may not be as high as one would think. No way I lay road points with the Esks in their first game away from Commonwealth after coming off of the win they had last week. Lean Winnipeg +3.5, but going to pass for now. If the public keeps hitting up the Eskimos, I may step in.
Hamilton at Montreal
I want no part of even trying to choose a side in the Hamilton/Montreal game on Friday evening. Jeremiah Masoli is a train wreck. For every one thing he does well on the field, he does two things horribly wrong. The Ticats cannot wait for Zach Collaros to come back, and they may not have to wait too much longer, as he has started practicing again. Ticats stock is low right now after dropping consecutive games at home where they never use to lose when Tim Hortons Field first opened. Also, Hamilton are at Edmonton next week. We all know what happened the last time they played Edmonton. It would be something if Collaros was ready to go next week.
During their bye week, the Als actually called me to come play for them on offense this week. Not really, but that is how bad things have gotten in Montreal. SJ Green is done for the year after tearing his knee up. Tyrell Sutton sprained his knee in week two and is out. Kenny Stafford is on the 6 game IL. Kevin Glenn will miss this game with an eye infection. Duron Carter is expected to play as he waits for his appeal on his suspension, but who knows what is going to happen between now and Friday. That whole situation has just gotten weird all together! In steps Rakeem Cato at QB this week, and I am not putting my money on that.
I was very interested in the under in this game. It opened at 49.5 (a number which I would have played), but I was working and couldn't get to it in time. It has now dropped a full three points down to 46.5 and I don't see too much value at that number. This is the CFL, points are scored in strange ways very quickly.
I will offer my thoughts on the BC/Saskatchewan game later this week. Good luck this week guys!
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