Posted:
#1
YTD: 1-2 ATS
Winnipeg +3
I think we've got a good play on and play against in this game. First let's look at Edmonton. I think this is a play against for Edmonton for two reasons. #1. They are coming off two huge wins and are now facing a winless team that they just beat the shit out of last week. How do they summon up the same energy level they had going into the game last week against the defending Grey Cup champs? #2. I am selling this team high. As great as their defense is their offense still stinks. Their D has been getting them a lot of points and while that could happen again, special teams and defensive TD's are very tough to count on. This is a team that has scored a grand total of 5 offensive TD's in 4 games! This team will not win 75% of it's games this season.
Big spot here for Winnipeg. This team will lay it on the line finally back at home. Defenses always play better at home and I expect Winnipeg's to look closer to the unit we saw last year, especially against Jyles and Co. And they have a lot to build on. Last week was a very, very difficult spot for them playing their 4th straight road game in 20 days with only 4 full days rest. Yet they never packed it in and played a real gritty game. Imagine being in that scenario and having your starting QB go 9/34 with 0 TD and 2 INT and you still only lose by 3. There is plenty of fight left in this bunch. Lost in the shuffle last week was they got Chad Simpson back and he looks real good, let's not forget Winnipeg's running game was a complete abortion before he got healthy. They also get Cory Watson back this week for the first time this year although Edwards looks like a question mark. This is a better offense than Edmonton's.
BC Lions +2.5
You gotta love the wild swings in this league. Very rarely is a team truely as good or bad as they looked the week before, therefore big swings in lines aren't usually appropriate. 10 days ago BC was a 3 point road fav against Saskatchewan. Now that would make them about a 6 point fav on a neutral field. They did lose that game by 3 points but let's be honest they weren't outplayed. The boxscore heavily favors BC but they gave up some turnovers and had a bazillion yard missed FG return cost them the game - fluky stuff. Now last week Calgary was a -3.5 home fav to the same Saskatchewan. Let's be generous and say that makes Calgary a -1 fav on a neutral field. BC -6 + CGY -1 = BC 5 points better in power rankings so this line should be about BC -1.5/2. But the other point is this wild 3-4 point swing isn't really justified. Sure BC lost to SSK but look how they lost, they weren't outplayed. Same with last week they crushed EDM in the boxscore and scored twice as many offensive TD's as the Eskies but yet again turnovers and a defensive TD did them in this time coming on an interception for a TD off a tipped ball as they were about to take the lead. Fluky stuff really and just one of those things that happen over the course of the football season.
Line should be BC -1.5/2 but people look at final scores and everyone overreacts which leads to artificial line inflation, which is what we have here. In other words: Value.
GL.
Winnipeg +3
I think we've got a good play on and play against in this game. First let's look at Edmonton. I think this is a play against for Edmonton for two reasons. #1. They are coming off two huge wins and are now facing a winless team that they just beat the shit out of last week. How do they summon up the same energy level they had going into the game last week against the defending Grey Cup champs? #2. I am selling this team high. As great as their defense is their offense still stinks. Their D has been getting them a lot of points and while that could happen again, special teams and defensive TD's are very tough to count on. This is a team that has scored a grand total of 5 offensive TD's in 4 games! This team will not win 75% of it's games this season.
Big spot here for Winnipeg. This team will lay it on the line finally back at home. Defenses always play better at home and I expect Winnipeg's to look closer to the unit we saw last year, especially against Jyles and Co. And they have a lot to build on. Last week was a very, very difficult spot for them playing their 4th straight road game in 20 days with only 4 full days rest. Yet they never packed it in and played a real gritty game. Imagine being in that scenario and having your starting QB go 9/34 with 0 TD and 2 INT and you still only lose by 3. There is plenty of fight left in this bunch. Lost in the shuffle last week was they got Chad Simpson back and he looks real good, let's not forget Winnipeg's running game was a complete abortion before he got healthy. They also get Cory Watson back this week for the first time this year although Edwards looks like a question mark. This is a better offense than Edmonton's.
BC Lions +2.5
You gotta love the wild swings in this league. Very rarely is a team truely as good or bad as they looked the week before, therefore big swings in lines aren't usually appropriate. 10 days ago BC was a 3 point road fav against Saskatchewan. Now that would make them about a 6 point fav on a neutral field. They did lose that game by 3 points but let's be honest they weren't outplayed. The boxscore heavily favors BC but they gave up some turnovers and had a bazillion yard missed FG return cost them the game - fluky stuff. Now last week Calgary was a -3.5 home fav to the same Saskatchewan. Let's be generous and say that makes Calgary a -1 fav on a neutral field. BC -6 + CGY -1 = BC 5 points better in power rankings so this line should be about BC -1.5/2. But the other point is this wild 3-4 point swing isn't really justified. Sure BC lost to SSK but look how they lost, they weren't outplayed. Same with last week they crushed EDM in the boxscore and scored twice as many offensive TD's as the Eskies but yet again turnovers and a defensive TD did them in this time coming on an interception for a TD off a tipped ball as they were about to take the lead. Fluky stuff really and just one of those things that happen over the course of the football season.
Line should be BC -1.5/2 but people look at final scores and everyone overreacts which leads to artificial line inflation, which is what we have here. In other words: Value.
GL.
Now let's get the Wins 
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