Hamilton at Winnipeg
First game of the week goes on Wednesday evening from Investors Group Field in Winnipeg, as the Blue Bombers look to build off an encouraging win last week against the defending Grey Cup champion Edmonton Eskimos. They will take on the Hamilton Tiger-cats for the second time this season. Winnipeg defeated Hamilton 28-24 at Tim Hortons Field on July 7th.
As mentioned, the Blue Bombers are coming off an outright win at Edmonton as 9.5 point road underdogs. Basically any time a team wins outright as almost double digit road dogs, I will be looking to fade them the following week. This week is no exception.
It was more than just a win for this Bombers team. First, they went into the defending champs own backyard and beat them. Secondly, the Bombers have been the Eskimos little girl in recent history. In fact, this win by the Bombers was their first over Edmonton in the last eight games versus their divisional foe. They also picked up their first win at Commonwealth in a decade. A let down could very well be in play here as Winnipeg is 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight up win.
I think Winnipeg may find the sledding a little more difficult his week against a much stronger defensive football team in the Hamilton Tiger-cats. The Ticats are second in the CFL in points allowed this season, only giving up 114. That puts them only behind the Montreal Alouettes in that category. This Hamilton defense is 1st in the CFL in sacks with 20, and they may feast on that Winnipeg O-line who, has conversely, given up the most sacks in the league thus far. Significant mismatch in the most important area on the field, the line of scrimmage. Orlondo Steinauer's defense also ranks #1 in defensive yards per play. In fact, Hamilton's defense is almost 2 whole yards per defensive play better than that Eskimos defense that Winnipeg went up against last week. Hamilton also ranks first and second in the CFL in average yards and points per opponent drive respectively. All this being said, Winnipeg should most definitely be challenged more when they have the football than they were last week against Edmonton.
In the first meeting between these two teams in Steeltown, Hamilton really helped the Blue Bombers out in that game by turning the ball over six times, including a pick six. Hamilton put the ball on the ground four times in that game and Winnipeg recovered all four of those 50/50 balls. Winnipeg still only won by four points. I do not expect a repeat performance of that nature tomorrow evening from the Ticats.
Personally, I don't pay too much attention to trends. There is just about a trend for everything out there, so anyone could find something to help support their claim on a play. If a trend is relevant to an exact situation I could give it a look from time to time. For the most part, I look for value in the line based on those certain situations, if that makes any sense. All that said, I do see value here with the Ticats off their bye week, and I will take solace in knowing that they are 3-0 SUATS on the road thus far this season. They also covered versus Montreal in their only game this year as road favorites. Looking back further, the Ticats have had tremendous success against the number on the road recently. They are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games, and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four visits to Winnipeg. Again, these are simple trends, but there they are.
It is interesting how the schedule has lined up for Hamilton. In their next two games they have opportunities to avenge their two losses this season. I like the rested Ticats and their defense against Winnipeg on six days rest to start avenging those losses on the right foot. Enough, so much, that I will make Hamilton -2.5 (posted earlier in this thread) my second two unit play of the season.
Play: Hamilton Tiger-cats -2.5
Risking: 2.12 units to win 2 units
Hot Forum Topics
