CFL Week #8 Eight???? Already????

4-1 week 4-2 on the middle try that failed and cancel that and its 3-1 more like 3.5-1 in units doesnt matter on here.  I am just doing my thing and I am satisfied, yet looking for more.

If you guys are tailing on here make sure you look at Indigo's thread.  He knows these teams as well as anyone and yet has the math and data to support his action.  I am very good at this, but I am limited to what is inside my brain


As far as this week goes I am looking forward to the lines this week.  Pretty much the whole year I have been taking action on the openers.  maybe I will this week also but in some cases last week I was early.  Some cases I was perfect.  Its a tricky game and If  you take early action be prepared to move on and off games.  Sometimes you get the very top, and sometimes its a complete miss.

Good luck this week to all

This is opening week of NFL wagering so I don't know what happens to the opening lines this week.  Last week was interesting to see the lines shift on the early Wednesday game.  The early action was on Peg pushing the opening +3.5 down to +2.  In the end it didn't matter as Peg won the game as the Dog, but when a line opens at or around 3 you better be careful when you decide to hit submit.

All of the NFL pre-season week 1 lines are up and available so I don't think that much will change.  I think that the books will be taking less CFL action so that might have some effect.

This is just my spin on what Indigo started in his thread trying to wrap my head around where the books are thinking.  Bottom line this is my approach this week.  If I see something do not hesitate, GO!  On the other side of this is relax and be patient I do not need to submit all of my action right away.

I come up with this weekly thread to come out with my thoughts and stay to my discipline.  Thinks things out and stay on course.


Shout out to all the people in the threads!  Lots of good people here doing great and winning things here!  Some of you are actually making threads !   It is great to see this forum grow and win !

On to the games.

I do not have a mathematical approach to making these lines!  this is purely on feel and my opinion.   Therefore some of these are going to be off a lot!  Too bad for you I am not a bookie

Montreal        54
@Edmonton -8 

I have put up a big # here based on previous lines.  Both these squads have 2 wins on the year and they both beat the same 2 teams. Peg and Sask.  Maybe I should move the line down but If you look back, Montreal doesn't score a bunch.  Eliminate the big  41-3 blowout against Sask and eliminate the poor week 4 showing, at home off of a bye no less, and you have the Al's averaging 17.5 points a game.  In those 4 games I averaged they have 7 major scores. 

This week they do face one of the worst, if not the worst D in the league.  That should help, but they shouldn't look like an NFL squad either.  Glenn has been a journey  man CFL QB and for good reason.  He is okay at best, but certainly there are better around the league.

Edmonton,  where did your offense go?  You are not helping your defense at all.  Extremely inconsistent offense from this squad going back to week 4.

week 4
1st half 10
2nd half 10

week 5
1st half 24
2nd half 7

week 6
1st half 3
2nd half 20

week 7
1st half 6
2nd half 14

Things are different this year in Edmonton and its not all the D's fault.  the last 4 games they have played 2 good halves.  Until they show me a complete football game and  a whole team game and cover as a favorite fade this squad

Al's as bad as they have been on offense will find away to keep this close.  If the total is low enough I will support an over play.

Al's +
lean over

Early game Friday

Peg
@ Argo's

With Ray out it's Kilgore against Nichols.  The big thing for me so far is TO/TD ratio 4-0.  He is making the plays and not turning it over! 

Winnipeg also had some depth WR's step up last week so going forward that is going to make this team more consistent.

They mentioned on the TV telecast that Hamilton has one of the best or best defense in the league.  My opinion this is way off.  This is my thread so I am entitled .

Toronto's D is better and I have much respect for D cord. Stubler.  Before they aquired Ray this Argo team was all about D and since Ray is out they will have to go back to this!  It's very possible we see a tight low scoring contest here.

I didn't venture a guess at a line.  Its hard for me to guess because the Argo's are 4-1 last 5 but they are a very piss poor covering home squad playing a team rallying around a QB that is making plays and not giving games away.  Nichols is facing a team that can play defense and trying to win and cover 3 in a row. 

Bottom line is maybe under and I could only play Peg, but I dont think I will be happy with the line.

Friday late night ball

Calg        -7
@ Sask   55

Home and Home rematch from last week.

I will start with my guess on the total.  The opener last week was 59.5 and it moved down all week.  The game still went under the closing total of 55 so that's where i put it this week.

The game was close in the first half and then Calgary took over after a 2 and out.  Game over from then on.

I am a big supporter of Saskatchewan this year, but it's gonna take more than a good coaching staff and QB Durant to get covers.  Maybe 7 is enough, if that is the correct line, but I have no clue.  Sometimes as the week develops my thought become clearer.

pass on the side and a lean to the over.

Late night Saturday

Hamilton
@ BC

Not going to venture a guess on the line.  Collaros is supposed to be back.  I haven't looked to confirm anything.  Sometimes that kinda info is scarce anyways.

BC is playing great ball but with that comes bookmaker expectations.  Hamilton playing not up to par last week and a Wednesday game allowing more time off.

Shot in the dark I would say the value would be on Hamilton, but with Collaros back its hard to say. 

My key focus on this game will be the under!  BC averaging just under 40 points a game the last 3 games with the biggest total being 50.5.  It doesn't make sense and this total with Collaros back.  If it doesn't open very high I feel the under will gain value as the week goes on.

play under.

opening Summary ( and this can and will change!  I always back track and think more clearly as the week goes on)


 Al's + points
over Sask/ Calg line???
under BC/Hammy line ????

Hope you crush it this week Spot.

Good luck Indigo.

I lkok forward in picking your brain this week.  Right now I am a little foggy on the sides.  If the Al's are below a TD dog then you can add them to my foggy list as well.

Home teams are 7-21 ats on the year. 2-2 last week.

That doesn't mean take the home teams and hope for the best, but the lines maker could adjust some lines going forward.  Maybe only maybe.

Hey Spottie and Indigo,

Montreal         51
@ Edmonton -7.5

yup as predicted value on the over here.  Took a half position on the over. took a smaler position on  Montreal.  I know that Monreal is challenged on offense but this should see improvement this week!  51 is very low for an Edmonton game.  Value the over a lot !

Peg
@ Argo's
no play

Calg
@SASK  leaning over.  I want to see if the line moves and which way.

AHHH YES!!

Hamilton
@BC

Just as I thought!  I didn't put it on here but the line is where I had it.

BC has scored  40,41 and 38 points the last 3 weeks.  Playing the return of Collaros  and their strong WR core.  I am not shocked at all that this line is a tall 54.5.  If BC scores another 40 that only leaves 15 to Hamilton.  I do value the under quite a bit and hope it pushes higher.  It should!

Aussie

I like the Riders a little bit more at home this week but the line is +6

The Riders hung in for a half last week but the game swung to Calgary early in the 3rd Q.  Maybe they do better this week, but they are going to have to score and that sways me to the over here.  The line started at 59.5 last week and did nothing but go south.  This week the line should have dropped even more because the total went under last week, but the books kept it right where it closed.

That is my take on the game.  I like Montreal this week and maybe a bit on peg but I already have the totals in both those games


My plays so far :

Over 51 Montreal/ ED 
Small Montreal +7.5
Under 54.5 BC/Ham

Took over 54.5 Sask Calg added to the above

Montreal over 51

Good fortune Amigo.......

I just see 51 as being low here!  I could be wrong.  Edmonton's offense could hold it down again.  If they do struggle I lose. If they get their sh!t in order this game could see 80. 

Well see

gOOD LUCK ON THE REST 

Couple of Mooseheads BoldCheers !

BIG Day on tap I hope scoring then no scoring.  need a few good weeks heading into the college and NFL !!!

What a fun time!!!

Good luck tonight 

Good luck to all tonight, whatever side you may be on.