Excuse me, CFLChef...

Headed to the game on on Sat w/ my Dad + brother's... they're asking me who we got... and I just don't know this menu.

Would you recommended the Argos -10.5 OR the Als +10.5. 

Thanks ahead,

Cheers

Just saw this post.

Actually I have no opinion on this game.  It's going to be a great game for sure.

Montreal are like the Miami Dolphins.  They beat up on teams that are below .500 but lose to teams above .500

Now in the last 3 games Montreal played really well against Toronto.  2 of those games MTL probably should have won.

It took some heroics from Toronto late in the 4th QTR"s to come back and get those wins.

Montreal on 6 days of rest and TOR on 13 days of rest.

Rest vs Rust.  MTL will be ready to go right away.  It might take TOR a QTR or 2 to get going.  I believe this is MTL's best time to put points on the board.  Catch TOR napping.

As crazy as it sounds, could TOR be looking ahead to the Grey Cup re-match against WPG.

Both teams have a running game but I believe TOR has the edge in this category.  Stanback is injured all the time.  QB edge to TOR as well.

The line opened at -9.5 and was immediately bet up to -11 most places.

TOR holds about a 10 point edge averaged across all games, hence the line.

Toronto is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home.

Toronto is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Montreal.

Montreal is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games.

Montreal is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto.

So MTL has every chance to cover the 11 points.

If the last 3 games playing each other is any indication this could be a close down to the wire type of game.

The Alouettes are 8-2-0 ATS when played as an Away Team Playing on Saturday Last 4 Years.

Laying 11 points is never a good situation to be in.  Only one outcome can cash your bet.  TOR has to cover the 11 points.

Taking 11 points with MTL, 2 good things can happen.  MTL can win the game SU or they can lose the game but cover the 11 points.

If the Argos did not have Chad Kelly, I would grab the points for this game.

That's the problem!  TOR is a juggernaut with this guy.  He is a leader and is motivated.  

Let's not forget all season long TOR has shown they do not take their foot off the gas, even when Mr. Dukes comes in late in recent games.

It is always full steam ahead all game long.

AS I said I have no investment in this game.  My strategy is to wait and bet the game "Live" and look to bet the 2nd half.

I do believe TOR wins this game but maybe they start slow and I get a better number "in-game".

Above stats from atsstats & oddsshark.

As always, all comments welcome.

We we're all thinking Toronto while down there - flipped everyone's side after reading your post couple hours before kick off. Dad even through $50 bucks on 'the red team'... moneyline!! 

Thanks Boss - 

Looking forward to your Grey Cup thoughts! 

Cheers