Indigo lines/musings week 8

20-20 ATS season to date, including 1-3  ATS last week.  I apologize to those that might have tailed.

Yes, well, things are going pretty poorly....no excuses, my picks have not been good enough.

Typically in the CFL teams that have done poorly will recover to play a good game..this season it appears that both the Lions and the Argos are headed for historically bad seasons.  For the Argos it means they SHOULD play their backup Prukop quarterback to see if he can play....it looks like he could, but whether the coaching staff will give him a chance so early in the season is debatable.  One thing is for certain...neither Bethel-Thompson or James Franklin can play quarterback  in the CFL.  The Lions have nothing except a quarterback.  They will have to get a new coordinator, new receivers and a new offensive line next season.  That being said, their defense and special teams aren't any good either.

Argos +15    Bombers 48

Riders -4      Tiger Cats 49 

Masoli out for the season, and those that have the Alouettes in future plays gotta be jumping for joy as they will be the odd-on choice now to represent the East in the Grey Cup.  Evans looked brave, but not too effective when filling in for the injured Cats' quarterback.  Tiger Cats have a very good offensive line, but quarterbacks gotta win you games on the road and Evans doesn't look likely to do so.  Riders' d-line dominated the Lions and got two special teams TDs, which can make them look more impressive than maybe they really are.  Should be a good matchup.

Alouettes -7  Redblacks 48  

Well if it's Jennings that gets the nod for the Redblacks you could make this Montreal -21 and I still wouldn't be interested in Ottawa, but perhaps on the UNDER, as they aren't allowing him to throw more than 6 yards down the field.   I don't blame the coaching staff at all for that.   I am assuming Davis will quarterback.  Montreal now in rarified air being such a big favorite, though it's well deserved.  Alouettes will go as far as Vernon takes them, but their coaching is outstanding and he has been performing better every week.

Stampeders -3  Eskimos 53 

Most interesting game of the week.  Eskimos' d-line looks very good.  Calgary still has a plethora of Grey Cup winners on the field and on the sidelines so they still know how to win.

I'll contemplate those games where there is a line differential of 3 or more points X-files.

That is only part of my methodology of taking a game where my line differs from the linemaker's.    There are tech angles to consider and if they are congruent, or at least NOT incongruent than I'd play them.

However, using line value only is basically how Hoody from our forum handicaps and he is having a very good season this year doing it that way.

My lines and the bookmaker's...mine in brackets

Argos       +14'   (+15)      Bombers   48'  (48)

Riders        -2'     (-2)       Tiger Cats  50'  (49)

Alouettes   (-7)   (-7')       Redblacks  53'  (48) 

Stamps     (-3)    (-1)       Eskimos     48   (53)

I had the Sasquatches -4 NOT -2

And the Stampeders -3

Plays:

1)  Toronto UNDER 48'

Toronto shouldn't score more than 14 points, which would require the Bombers to score 35 to beat me.  The question is, how many scores will the Argos allow in interception or kick returns?    After allowing a ton of non-defensive scores so far this season, it is time that they actually didn't allow any.   Argos untouchable in my opinion...another poster thought the line should be 17....I still couldn't play them.

2)  Tiger Cats +3

Tiger Cats getting 3?  Fajardo has shown flashes, but largely looks like a mediocre qb to me, kind of a Zach Jr.  I expect the Tiger Cats' o-line to negate the strength of the Riders, which is their defensive line.

3)  Alouettes -7

Alouettes giving 7 and Davis is questionable...if word comes out that he isn't playing it would be VERY interesting to how the line reacts.  I expect the Als to win the turnover battle which is a big predictor of being able to cover.

4)  Calgary +1

I was prepared to take the Eskimos if the line was where it should be, but the defending champs at home as a dog?  I am taking then.  Eskimos will be outcoached in this one and the defiencies of the Stamps' quarterback Arbuckle will be minimized at home.

5)  Calgary OVER 48

Lots of opportunities for turnovers in the Cal/Ed game as both teams have good defensive lines, which should result in big plays.  I am OVER it.

Angles and trends for this week.

HD and streak<-2 and not DIV and playoffs=0

22-7 ATS and 11-18 O/U....Argos

I don't get gunshy too often but I certainly am with the Argos who I have lost on each and every time I've wagered for or against them this season.  Yeah, maybe they don't implode THIS TIME and give up a couple of returns for TDS or throw 7 interceptions, or have their opponent pitch a shutout, but I'm not paying money to find out.

AD and streak<-2 and  DIV and playoffs=0 and p:HL and day

Nothing too spectacular in this one, except Friday games have been particularly bad for the away dog.

3-8 ATS, 4-7 O/U.....Redblacks

Here is a very good query with a ton of results....play on a team who is an away dog and their line this week is at least 7 points greater than their line next week will be.  The Tiger Cats are at home next week to the Lions and should be >7 point favorites.

AD and line-n:line>7.....Tiger Cats

158-87 ATS, 64.5%

Here is an angle that has me thinking of backing out of my Stamps play.

We are looking at a home divisional dog whose opponent won by >10 points last week, while our team won last game as well.

op:margin>10 and HD and DIV and p:W

1-9-1 ATS, 1-10 straight up losing by an average of 14 points, 3-8 O/U  Stampeders.

So, Zach to the Argos, I'd say the Sasquatches are happy to dump some salary and Fajardo isn't any better/worse than Zach, whose best days in the CFL were before he wrecked his knee.....he'll make them 7 points better EVENTUALLY than the garbaaaage that the Argos have been putting out there.  It is impossible to have the amount of turnovers that they have had, which is why the difference.  

Bethel-Thompson and Franklin after this season will probably be out of the CFL.

The problem for the Argos is that they are losing by an average of 23 points/game. 

Their special teams will still be terrible and their defense close to the bottom of the league.

Maybe guys like Spottie will take them and they'll cover some games for him....me?....my cajones are not that big.

 Indigo   

I think you should lay the -14 or -14.5 and really prove me wrong

Well, your cajones son muy grande and mine?....... not so much.