Preseason’s over, and real, live, competitive football is just 5 days away. Here are my win total plays, along with my thoughts on the others that I didn’t pick. Just a little play money here, so take it for what it's worth.
Plays
BC Over 6.5 – Not that I feel comfortable with Jennings at QB, but at least he's healthy this year, and they got some much-needed protection in front of him. They shored up the line on both sides of the ball this offseason, with the pass rush looking pretty good in preseason. If they can stop turning the ball over and limit the big passing plays on defense, they could send Wally out with a trip to the playoffs. But those are awfully big ifs. My numbers give this a 63% chance of going over.
Edmonton Under 11.5 – The MOP is back; 2 of his biggest weapons are not. Derel Walker should have a fantastic season, and the offense will be remain explosive. I think they overachieved a little to get to 12 wins last year, though, and they're due for some regression. 69% probability of finishing under.
Montreal Under 5.5 – Trash. Slightly less smelly trash, but still trash. In early-season CFL, you always take the dog and the points, unless that dog is the 2018 Als. 58% probability on the under, and that number’s generous to Montreal.
Ottawa Over 8.5 – Aren’t really outstanding at any one thing, but they're average or better at just about everything. In the East, that can be enough to win the division. Holding a Redblacks future (+1200) for that reason. Panicked a little when Harris took that hit to the knee a couple weeks ago, but he's adamant he'll be back by Week 1. Even if he's not, Dominique Davis has looked good enough in preseason that I wouldn't mind seeing him get some regular-season snaps. 59% chance of going over.
Saskatchewan Over 8 – I still think the Riders actually downgraded at QB, and they play the toughest schedule in the league (their extra games on top of the double round robin are vs CGY and @ WPG). I was planning to play an Under on them, but that's because I expected this number to be 10.5 or 11 wins. At 8, I had no choice but to take the over. Still don't think they'll roll through the regular season, and they may even be the crossover team again, but they're good enough to win the Grey Cup. 63% to cover.
Winnipeg Under 10.5 – This number looked pretty sharp, so I stayed away until Matt Nichols went down. Had this as 54% under before the Nichols injury; if you assume they drop just 1 game they would have otherwise won while he’s out, that's more like 64%.
Non-Plays
Hamilton (9.5) – Lean Under. Not as bullish as most on the Ti-Cats. The league’s worst pass defense didn’t really do anything to get better in the offseason. Offense could be good enough to drag them over this number. I'll just sit back and enjoy the fireworks, especially if it turns into the Johnny Football Show.
Calgary (11.5) – Stay Away. The best team in the league is still the best team in the league, but their window is starting to close a little. Absolutely no value here. I think they finish exactly 12-6 this year, but I'm certainly not laying -130 to find out. If Mitchell gets hurt, there’s no way the over cashes.
Toronto (9.5) – Lean Under. Reached their ceiling last season, and that ceiling was still only 9 wins high. They’re a solid enough team that they could go over the total and win the East again, but Ricky Ray can’t keep doing this forever. Should end up pretty close to this number; I have the probability that they finish with exactly 8, 9, or 10 wins as 29%.
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