Someone suggested an old contrarian system that has been profitable for years. Just blindly bet all underdog pointspreads and double stake after every loss. In the long run, CFL underdogs tend to cover more often than favorites. Martingale money management works best when stakes are small and losing streaks are short. However this system defies logic or experts and requires a strong stomach.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Someone suggested an old contrarian system that has been profitable for years. Just blindly bet all underdog pointspreads and double stake after every loss. In the long run, CFL underdogs tend to cover more often than favorites. Martingale money management works best when stakes are small and losing streaks are short. However this system defies logic or experts and requires a strong stomach.
Away dogs have covered at 56.4% going back quite a few years....that means if you chased 4 games you'd have lost 3.6% of the time on average, versus the normal percentage of losing 6.25% of the time, so there's validity in your assertion.
Home dogs on the other hand show a much less historical precedent of covering at 53.2%. Divisional home dogs haven't been good at 47%, while non-divisional home dogs have hit 60%.
So, if you chased away dogs and home non-divisional dogs, (excluding divisional home dogs) that has been a sound and profitable strategy.
Dogs have started strongly this year, as they usually do.....it is actually a very good strategy to fade the team with the better record from last year than their opponent's record from last year in the first four weeks as a dog....
AD 43-26 63.2%
HD 23-13 63.9%
But fade them if they are favored....
HF 9-25 26.5%
AF 0-1 0%
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Away dogs have covered at 56.4% going back quite a few years....that means if you chased 4 games you'd have lost 3.6% of the time on average, versus the normal percentage of losing 6.25% of the time, so there's validity in your assertion.
Home dogs on the other hand show a much less historical precedent of covering at 53.2%. Divisional home dogs haven't been good at 47%, while non-divisional home dogs have hit 60%.
So, if you chased away dogs and home non-divisional dogs, (excluding divisional home dogs) that has been a sound and profitable strategy.
Dogs have started strongly this year, as they usually do.....it is actually a very good strategy to fade the team with the better record from last year than their opponent's record from last year in the first four weeks as a dog....
Very interesting and far worth a test run. I would imagine some other sports would be qualified for a martingale system as well. I can imagine college basketball and college football would be profitable, but perhaps on the favorites side as opposed to dogs. Either way.
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Very interesting and far worth a test run. I would imagine some other sports would be qualified for a martingale system as well. I can imagine college basketball and college football would be profitable, but perhaps on the favorites side as opposed to dogs. Either way.
Well, Rewinds, for me it depends on data....if there are certain filters that can be applied to college basketball and football where the cover rate is at least 55%, then there will be an advantage to a chase, whatever the length of games one decides, as there will be playing individual games.
Martindale/chasing also depends on the psychological make-up of the individual.....some of the most successful cappers with great track records are chasers on forums such as these, but it promotes the most vehement opposition from others.
There's a thread on another forum that documents how teams do that have been swept in a previous series in baseball....you play ON the team that was swept their next series...it has awesome results, it's perfect this year, so chasing does have it's merits.
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Well, Rewinds, for me it depends on data....if there are certain filters that can be applied to college basketball and football where the cover rate is at least 55%, then there will be an advantage to a chase, whatever the length of games one decides, as there will be playing individual games.
Martindale/chasing also depends on the psychological make-up of the individual.....some of the most successful cappers with great track records are chasers on forums such as these, but it promotes the most vehement opposition from others.
There's a thread on another forum that documents how teams do that have been swept in a previous series in baseball....you play ON the team that was swept their next series...it has awesome results, it's perfect this year, so chasing does have it's merits.
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