Posted:
#1
The other thread got messed up some how. Covers was better a few years back but I guess that is because I am old 
I use a combo of things to break down games. To me it is best to know these squads. The line comes out and instantly you can have an initial thought on who to take and then go dig deeper to either support your thoughts on take a step back.
What I know about this week.
Riders
@ Alouettes -6.5
I know all about Durrant switching sides and as it looks he should make the Als better, but he was supposed to make the Riders better last year too and he was just never consistent. I expect moving to a new team with a new stud WR in E. Jackson they are going to make some plays but also I can see the offense stalling out. Week 1 new QB and pressing to beat his old squad.
I can not predict how exactly this plays out I just have an overall feel for where this line should be and looking back through there history this is the biggest line that the Als have given the Riders since 2012 with Trestman and Calvillo.
It is hard to back the Riders but I think it is even hard to lay a almost a TD in week 1 with a new veteran QB. This is alot to ask of a team that hardly ever lays points in their recent history.
Since Anthony Cavillo played his last game in 2013 the Als have been poor offensively.
Evidence:
Allouettes are 2-5 ATS as favorites when laying -5 or more.
When an Alouettes total is more than 49 the under is 20-1
My plays are
Under 50
Riders +6.5 and waiting for more if it hits +7 or more.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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