Well it's always good to be right around the number. Despite splitting on MON -6.5 and the OVER 53, this was a positive game with lots learned. More exciting than many NFL games from a handicapping perspective.
The week started with MON -6.5 and moved all the way to -4.5 before kickoff. BC covered regardless thanks to a bizarre coaching move to kick a field goal facing 3rd and 5 down 7 with less than 2 minutes left. BC takes 3 points and gives the ball back to MON, who they haven't stopped all night. MON runs the ball down their throat to seal the game.
The game actually would have ended UNDER the opening 56.5 total but by gametime this number had moved to 52 on Vegas and 52.5 offshore.
Game went OVER despite a missed field goal from each side and Montreal offense stalling after leading 24-3, and 27-10 in the 3rd.
If you jumped on the under early 56.5 and bet the over 52 right before kickoff you had a good night with a nice middle
Thanks again to some bizarre coaching but this was low scoring (2 missed fgs, moore's td broken up, McPherson fumble) compared to what it could have been
A pretty clean game no turnovers (Cox had an INT go off his face mask)
Season record 1-1 -$10
Only other play this week SAK/EDM OVER 51.5 $110/100
Opinions (not plays) on
WIN +8 at TOR
SAK -7 OVER EDM (best bet of these)
and TOR +8 at CAL
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Well it's always good to be right around the number. Despite splitting on MON -6.5 and the OVER 53, this was a positive game with lots learned. More exciting than many NFL games from a handicapping perspective.
The week started with MON -6.5 and moved all the way to -4.5 before kickoff. BC covered regardless thanks to a bizarre coaching move to kick a field goal facing 3rd and 5 down 7 with less than 2 minutes left. BC takes 3 points and gives the ball back to MON, who they haven't stopped all night. MON runs the ball down their throat to seal the game.
The game actually would have ended UNDER the opening 56.5 total but by gametime this number had moved to 52 on Vegas and 52.5 offshore.
Game went OVER despite a missed field goal from each side and Montreal offense stalling after leading 24-3, and 27-10 in the 3rd.
If you jumped on the under early 56.5 and bet the over 52 right before kickoff you had a good night with a nice middle
Thanks again to some bizarre coaching but this was low scoring (2 missed fgs, moore's td broken up, McPherson fumble) compared to what it could have been
A pretty clean game no turnovers (Cox had an INT go off his face mask)
Season record 1-1 -$10
Only other play this week SAK/EDM OVER 51.5 $110/100
I was a little surprised to see Buono bring in his kicker with 1:46 left to play. Make or Miss your still behind and your handing over the ball to an 18 year pro in AC and a brainiac in Trestman . Now what are the chances that this duo won't be able to kill the clock.
Mind you if McCallum misses and the ball doesn't get out of the end zone. It probably ends up as a Montreal 6 point win which is good for the early BC backers and sour grapes for the late takers as this line was bet down to 4.5
gl TC
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I was a little surprised to see Buono bring in his kicker with 1:46 left to play. Make or Miss your still behind and your handing over the ball to an 18 year pro in AC and a brainiac in Trestman . Now what are the chances that this duo won't be able to kill the clock.
Mind you if McCallum misses and the ball doesn't get out of the end zone. It probably ends up as a Montreal 6 point win which is good for the early BC backers and sour grapes for the late takers as this line was bet down to 4.5
mind you these were done preseason about a Week ago just posted now
I do think Toronto Calgary and Hamilton are the better teams, Montreal as well but I thought home field would be bigger here. Looks like it will be big for BC.
We will see, if nothing else gives a chance to adjust for Weeks 3-6
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mind you these were done preseason about a Week ago just posted now
I do think Toronto Calgary and Hamilton are the better teams, Montreal as well but I thought home field would be bigger here. Looks like it will be big for BC.
We will see, if nothing else gives a chance to adjust for Weeks 3-6
Losing sucks and like Phil Steele just inspires us to work harder the next week
I like to predict the lines about 4 weeks ahead as you saw in my season previews
Here are the Week 2 numbers, before Week 1. It just helps me get a feel on the public perception
As always your thoughts comments feedbacks and opinions are welcome if you are here to talk football then omar is your friend
Toronto -3 at WINNIPEG (49)
Calgary -2.5 at BC Lions (52)
Montreal +1.5 at Saskatchewan (54.5)
Hamilton -7 at EDMONTON (55)
One of the greatest joys for me in handicapping sports is line guessing and comparing my numbers with the odds makers posted lines. But in my opinion line guessing when the previous week is incomplete is pointless. You have Hamilton as a 7 point favorite in Edmonton next week.
Now if by some chance Winnipeg upsets Hamilton or losses by less than a TD and Ricky Ray throws for 380 yards and Edmonton wins 31-30 then your line guess for next week will be way off .
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Quote Originally Posted by tommy_covers:
Losing sucks and like Phil Steele just inspires us to work harder the next week
I like to predict the lines about 4 weeks ahead as you saw in my season previews
Here are the Week 2 numbers, before Week 1. It just helps me get a feel on the public perception
As always your thoughts comments feedbacks and opinions are welcome if you are here to talk football then omar is your friend
Toronto -3 at WINNIPEG (49)
Calgary -2.5 at BC Lions (52)
Montreal +1.5 at Saskatchewan (54.5)
Hamilton -7 at EDMONTON (55)
One of the greatest joys for me in handicapping sports is line guessing and comparing my numbers with the odds makers posted lines. But in my opinion line guessing when the previous week is incomplete is pointless. You have Hamilton as a 7 point favorite in Edmonton next week.
Now if by some chance Winnipeg upsets Hamilton or losses by less than a TD and Ricky Ray throws for 380 yards and Edmonton wins 31-30 then your line guess for next week will be way off .
I handicap 4-5 sometimes 6 weeks ahead to look for the trends
Week 1 games are meaningless anyway
BC won their opener last year...how'd that turn out for them
Montreal lost their opener ... how'd that turn out
These are just preseason guesses at who the better team is if the game was played June 15. That way you can look and see if a team is getting better or worse
Yes I do think Hamilton is 7 points better than Edmonton at this point...1 week, especially Week 1, isn't going to change that thought. They have more football talent.
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I handicap 4-5 sometimes 6 weeks ahead to look for the trends
Week 1 games are meaningless anyway
BC won their opener last year...how'd that turn out for them
Montreal lost their opener ... how'd that turn out
These are just preseason guesses at who the better team is if the game was played June 15. That way you can look and see if a team is getting better or worse
Yes I do think Hamilton is 7 points better than Edmonton at this point...1 week, especially Week 1, isn't going to change that thought. They have more football talent.
I hardly think an ATS trend over an 18 game schedule will give anyone an edge. Montreal was only 8-10 ats last year and the Best record was Calgary at 11-7 ats while the bottom teams were both BC and EDM at 7-11 ats. Nothing concrete.
If you think Hamilton deserves to be a 7 point favorite on the Road then what what would you make the line if they were hosting ????? 14 !!!!
You see if the TiCats are a 9 point favorite against the Blue Bombers at home this week , and let's not forget, Winnipeg was the longest future shot on the board at 15-1 to win it all i seriously doubt that Hamilton will be a TD favorite next week .
Time will tell
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I hardly think an ATS trend over an 18 game schedule will give anyone an edge. Montreal was only 8-10 ats last year and the Best record was Calgary at 11-7 ats while the bottom teams were both BC and EDM at 7-11 ats. Nothing concrete.
If you think Hamilton deserves to be a 7 point favorite on the Road then what what would you make the line if they were hosting ????? 14 !!!!
You see if the TiCats are a 9 point favorite against the Blue Bombers at home this week , and let's not forget, Winnipeg was the longest future shot on the board at 15-1 to win it all i seriously doubt that Hamilton will be a TD favorite next week .
im looking trending getting better or trending getting worse as a team not ATS
if they were hosting "MY" line would be Hamilton -10
if the real line is -1 then hell "I" "THINK" i have some value there after forecasting at the beginning of season depending on how things have gone during the season would probably look harder at making it a play
oh and 11-7 IS concrete if you can pick up on an 11-7 trend over the season that is 61% which is above my expected win % don't know what % you are hitting but I aim for 55-58% over the course of a year
you are right time will tell
good to get your opinions
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im looking trending getting better or trending getting worse as a team not ATS
if they were hosting "MY" line would be Hamilton -10
if the real line is -1 then hell "I" "THINK" i have some value there after forecasting at the beginning of season depending on how things have gone during the season would probably look harder at making it a play
oh and 11-7 IS concrete if you can pick up on an 11-7 trend over the season that is 61% which is above my expected win % don't know what % you are hitting but I aim for 55-58% over the course of a year
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