Week 1: What I Think I Learned

Question

First off I want to say thanks to Spottie and Indigo and everyone who posts and gives insight week in and week out. Last year was the first time I really payed attention to the CFL or bet on it and everyone in this forum was a big help.

That being said, my knowledge is obviously limited, so take my thoughts and plays with a grain of salt. I went 3-1 in week 1 (Undocumented cause I've always been more of a lurker), all 2 team 6 point teasers. I just wanted to share my thoughts about week 1 and get some feedback and others thoughts.

Calgary: Something feels off about this team, the last 2 games are a small sample size obviously, but if you're watching the games, they just aren't clicking like they were most of last year. That being said I still think they're as good as anyone in the league but I'm not sensing that they're so far and above everyone else as they were most of last year.

Ottawa: Probably the class of the East but I'll need to see them do it on a week to week basis. New QB looked good and they played a hell of a game against Calgary.

Edmonton: Defense looked better but still shaky, granted against a top flight offense but I still don't think I trust them to make a stop when needed.

BC: Like Edmonton, they looked rusty in the first half but were able to open things up in the 2nd half. I think this is the team that challenges Calgary for the title out West.

Saskatchewan: Don't trust this team at all. I know the coach has a pedigree but the whole team seems like a clown show right now. Reports of arguing on the sidelines, nothing about their O or D stood out to me as being anything above average.

Montreal: I like their D, I like their QB, I like that they're on the uptrend, I feel like they could be legit but they'll have to prove it going forward.

Hamilton: Man, that was ugly. Did Toronto get that much better or are the Tiger Cats on the downswing? Defense looked slow, offense looked completely out of rhythm. It seems like the talent is still there but the results have not. Will be an interesting team to keep an eye on.

Toronto: Again, are they that much better, or was Hamilton just sleep walking? This week against BC will be a much better test but if Ray can stay healthy and these new receivers can continue to produce, they'll be a heck of a fun team to watch at the very least. The pedigree of the coaching staff has me leaning towards the side of a believer.

Suicane · Answer

First off I want to say thanks to Spottie and Indigo and everyone who posts and gives insight week in and week out. Last year was the first time I really payed attention to the CFL or bet on it and everyone in this forum was a big help.

That being said, my knowledge is obviously limited, so take my thoughts and plays with a grain of salt. I went 3-1 in week 1 (Undocumented cause I've always been more of a lurker), all 2 team 6 point teasers. I just wanted to share my thoughts about week 1 and get some feedback and others thoughts.

Calgary: Something feels off about this team, the last 2 games are a small sample size obviously, but if you're watching the games, they just aren't clicking like they were most of last year. That being said I still think they're as good as anyone in the league but I'm not sensing that they're so far and above everyone else as they were most of last year.

Ottawa: Probably the class of the East but I'll need to see them do it on a week to week basis. New QB looked good and they played a hell of a game against Calgary.

Edmonton: Defense looked better but still shaky, granted against a top flight offense but I still don't think I trust them to make a stop when needed.

BC: Like Edmonton, they looked rusty in the first half but were able to open things up in the 2nd half. I think this is the team that challenges Calgary for the title out West.

Saskatchewan: Don't trust this team at all. I know the coach has a pedigree but the whole team seems like a clown show right now. Reports of arguing on the sidelines, nothing about their O or D stood out to me as being anything above average.

Montreal: I like their D, I like their QB, I like that they're on the uptrend, I feel like they could be legit but they'll have to prove it going forward.

Hamilton: Man, that was ugly. Did Toronto get that much better or are the Tiger Cats on the downswing? Defense looked slow, offense looked completely out of rhythm. It seems like the talent is still there but the results have not. Will be an interesting team to keep an eye on.

Toronto: Again, are they that much better, or was Hamilton just sleep walking? This week against BC will be a much better test but if Ray can stay healthy and these new receivers can continue to produce, they'll be a heck of a fun team to watch at the very least. The pedigree of the coaching staff has me leaning towards the side of a believer.

spottie2935 · Answer

Thanks for the kind wordsYour thread is very nice because you bring additional thoughts to the table.  We are all watching the same games so we are going to agree a lot of the time.  The key is when is we miss something or forget about certain situations.  I am not a guy that has the ability to focus in on each play and dissect match ups.  I try to keep an overall perspective on each team.  Then I move on to team trends on who is covering spreads and by what margin.  My thoughts are I want to know why a book is sending certain numbers out.  My love for the CFL is just for this reason.  There is only 4 games a week so the books can&#x27;t hide from their mistakes.    The books can react very quickly or not at all sometimes, I like to know who is covering because all of the sudden a phony line pops up and everyone gets confused and passes on that game , and my capping model has me pounding one side of that game.I am not a flat bettor I keep things very small and limited at times and other times I step up and jump on a line.  Not all lines are created equal in my opinion.  It works for me because of my experience, and knowing the teams pretty well. Lines are my enemy not other cappers and if I am opposite I expect that will happen a lot.  I will add to your thoughts in my next post.

spottie2935 · Answer

Calgary: Something feels off about this team, the last 2 games are a small sample size obviously, but if you're watching the games, they just aren't clicking like they were most of last year. That being said I still think they're as good as anyone in the league but I'm not sensing that they're so far and above everyone else as they were most of last year.

Calgary was super hot covering spreads last year I and I expect them to cool off or regress ATS wise. There usually is a lot of varience from team to team, but at the top Calgary has been the best. Last year was the same thing @ Ottawa. Ottawa just plays them hard in Ottawa. In Calgary it seems a bit of a different story and I like the line this week for the Stamps. This week home -7 compared to last week -6 at Ottawa. A lot of people got burned laying the points last week and were either impressed with Ottawa or are jumping ship in this match up because of the impressive 28-14 lead Ottawa had.

My overall gut feelings on these two teams are inconsistent and I think the lines will not be friendly. In my opinion bettors are going to come away from this back to back match up and count on these two teams to remain consistent and I think that the books could benefit from these two squaring off so early.

As far as I am concerned this is a dog league and also these lines can jump up. An example of this is the total. anything 58 or higher and my eyes light up. Nothing is ever a 100 % but some lines have a higher winning rate. Totals over 58 the under hits many more times then not. There is a reason the totals don't get lined 62 points and that is because when they get that high the books have set the number high enough that the under cashes. I don't know why it plays out on the field that way, but it does.

spottie2935 · Answer

Edmonton: Defense looked better but still shaky, granted against a top flight offense but I still don't think I trust them to make a stop when needed.

The theme of this team is totals. In my thread I stated that Montreal was 21-1 to the under when the total is 49 or higher, but after thinking about it 51.5 in this match up doesn't make me feel good. Montreal is not run and gun and they don't play like that. They play slow so if they fail their D has time to rest on the side lines.

If Edmonton's D plays well the can play and beat anyone but until I see consistent D no lead is ever safe with them. Its a long season and already they had a piece of their D get injured.

Sherritt's done for the year.

This looks like an over play based on the way Edmonton plays but you could make a case for the under based on the way Montreal plays.

spottie2935 · Answer

BC: Like Edmonton, they looked rusty in the first half but were able to open things up in the 2nd half. I think this is the team that challenges Calgary for the title out West.Yup I agree.  They have a stud WR coming back from IR soon.  It makes them dangerous. Chris Williams.  Calgary is going to be challenged.

spottie2935 · Answer

Saskatchewan: Don&#x27;t trust this team at all. I know the coach has a pedigree but the whole team seems like a clown show right now. Reports of arguing on the sidelines, nothing about their O or D stood out to me as being anything above average.They are going to step up and cover with certain lines or against certain teams but I am with you nothing exciting here.

spottie2935 · Answer

Montreal: I like their D, I like their QB, I like that they&#x27;re on the uptrend, I feel like they could be legit but they&#x27;ll have to prove it going forward.Durant will make this team interesting and they have a decent D and running attack.

spottie2935 · Answer

Hamilton: Man, that was ugly. Did Toronto get that much better or are the Tiger Cats on the downswing? Defense looked slow, offense looked completely out of rhythm. It seems like the talent is still there but the results have not. Will be an interesting team to keep an eye on.

A few years back they were on a 14-3 ATS run. Since then they are not as good. Collaros was really on fire for them but as soon as he went out injured it was all downhill . They lost some talent at WR also. We will see what happens now.

spottie2935 · Answer

Toronto: Again, are they that much better, or was Hamilton just sleep walking? This week against BC will be a much better test but if Ray can stay healthy and these new receivers can continue to produce, they'll be a heck of a fun team to watch at the very least. The pedigree of the coaching staff has me leaning towards the side of a believer.

I am watching this team with both eyes. I think last week they took advantage of a team that is not trending so good and they can and will come back to earth this week. They are now 2-10 ATS last 12 so I am not ready to back them coming of nice games lake last week.

spottie2935 · Answer

You gave me a bit of energy and you made me think about this week so it does help me think things out when other post their thoughts.

I know time is short but I hope you can add your weekly thread.

Thanks and best of luck

Suicane · Answer

Appreciate all the replies. I admit I still tend to look more at teams than line trends when making bets so all of the work you and others do is most appreciated.

Most of all though, It's just nice to have football to watch in the middle of Summer.

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Great thread.. Covers used at its best. This is why i joined this site, good people talking about the league and although the OP stated that he is new to the league, takes it upon himself to get involved with others. Great job...

Week 1: What I Think I Learned

Hot Forum Topics