Posted:
#1
19-14 ATS season to date.
Betting is hard. This season has been a downer for me. Overs and the better teams have dominated the league in 2017. I may take the week off or maybe even the rest of the season.
My lines in brackets....
Lions -8 (-9) Als 49.5 (54)
Ottawa -12 (-10) Tiger Cats 54 (56)
Bombers -1.5 (pik) Riders 60 (56)
Eskimos +6 (+6) Stamps 56 (54)
Going with the covers consensus plays would have gotten you a 1-3 weekend. If I'm playing the CFL again this year, I am not going to play a consensus pick, that is it.
Normally I'd consider the Alouettes off of two straight poor performances, but the Lions are also off of the same, and Travis Lulay is now the starting qb, so BC will not be matching interceptions thrown by Darren Durrant. Teams that win the turnover battle win about 80% of the time and cover close to that....one guy is a turnover machine and the other isn't......so the only play is the BC Lulays or nothing.
Note to the GM of the Als, what were you thinking when you put your roster together?....you know you need a quarterback to win in this league, right?
Eskimos are in free fall and Calgary is the class of the league....I found a query that was 5-0 ATS favoring the Stamps that I've lost. One has to take the Stamps or nothing, even with the books begging for Eskimo money. Divisional away favorites on at least a three game winning streak, playing a team >500 have been 3-7-1 ATS, 4-7 straight up.
Teams that are dogs in the above situation have been 10-12 ATS........Saskatchewan looks like the second best team in the league...their defense is close to the Stamps now and their running game is good....that translates to very good performances at home where it's most important, but not necessarily on the road where quarterbacking is more important. Kevin Glenn on the road?...not so sure about that.
Hamilton? They won't go winless this year. Teams that won at home breaking at least a three game losing streak have been 6-7 ATS, but 4-1 ATS if the line is >=7. Maybe June Jones will weave some magic the rest of the year, at least in the East that looks possible.....they might even end up in first place by the end of the year with a 6-12 record.
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