Week 18, Indigo lines/thoughts

35-25 ATS season to date.

Indigo lines.

Toronto +3'       Hamilton   52   

Winnipeg -1      Saskatchewan 53

Edmonton -3     Ottawa 54

Calgary     -11   British Columbia 49

Have Toronto been making a mistake by not playing James Franklin?  He looked like he didn't care early in the season, but looked awesome in the last quarter against the Lions in an adverse situation.  I'd expect he'll get a serious look the last few games of the season.  Totally different scenario when a guy gets a start versus coming off the bench with no expectations.....we'll see if he can handle success.

Winnipeg looks back on track after a dominant performance against the Redblacks.

Saskatchewan looks like it has everything it needs to win the Grey Cup except a quarterback.  Can they win it anyway?  IDK.

Edmonton might be playing themselves out of a playoff spot....expect a lot of fireworks against the Redblacks after both teams had difficult games this past week.

Chinks are starting to show in the Stampeder's armor, as they seem to do every late season for them.  Losing their stud receiver has got to hurt.  When you can't score, you're one big turnover or one big kick return away from having a dominant season go down in flames like it has the past couple of seasons.

And BC?  With Jennings they'll look good at home where they can ride their dominant defense, but on the road where their quarterback has to make winning plays?  Nah, I don't think so.  He did get called out by the Lions' staff this past week, which might act as a motivator,.......

but once a bonehead, always a bonehead is my thinking.  Bring back Travis!!

Dont forget a few teams on a very short week. IMO the books will add a few points on rest.

My big plays this week 

Sask +  

Eskimos ..  over is a strong possible play here.

Lions +  Calgary might struggle the rest of the way.

I still think the Stamps  make the Final and win the cup.  Last few years looked like champions and fail.  This year look like crap and guess what.

Hi Spottie......lines are out.......the CFL is a very contrarian league, I hope to do myself a favor and not get too involved during the Grey Cup playoffs.

Let's compare Mister Bookie's and mine.  Mine in parentheses.

Toronto     +7'    (+3')    Hamilton         52    (52)

Winnipeg    -3'     (-1)     Saskatchewan 53    (53)

Edmonton   -3'     (-3)     Ottawa           51    (54)

Calgary      -10'    (-11)   BC                 49'    (49)

I'll run through some queries in a second.....initial thoughts are that Ottawa looks like a likely play as they play like Mister Hyde on the road and Dr. Jeckyll at home and Edmonton seems to be in free fallin' mode.

If I could trust Jennings to not throw a couple of pick sixes, I'd love the UNDER in the BC/Calgary game, but of course we can't, can we?

I'll see also if data supports Toronto as this line seems off.

What we're seeing in October in the past are that dogs dominate.  The dogs have covered by often by the slimmest of margins, the games are close and underdogs don't win straight up nearly as much as earlier in the season.  Getting the best line will be important as a half point can make much more of a difference than early season games.

Away dogs have been 78-52 ATS and the o/u in those games have been 59-69.

Home divisional dogs have been 11-20 ATS, however teams on a least a three game losing streak (Argos) have been 7-2 ATS.

So, what has happened in the past is that September typically acts as a regression month where what has transpired in the season reverses, (i.e., favorites cover) and then we go back to what the CFL is known for, which are dogs and UNDERs cover and win. 

Early leans are on Redblacks, Argonauts and the Roughriders.  Evidently there is some question whether Harris will be quarterbacking for the Redblacks. 

Will James  Franklin start for Toronto?   I would consider them as well........

if any have information about who is quarterbacking this week, share it on the thread.

I will be on the Argo's as well.  Ticats are horrid as Road Chalk.Even if their line limbs higher they still only have 1 straight up win in 5 attempts  as -6 or less road chalk

t:team = Tiger Cats and AF and line <-2.5 and o:team!=Alouettes

I also like the Roughriders 

Hi Indigo looksd like a tough week for me picking. FYI Franklin is starting for Toronto and Lulay and Sutten are starting too.Might just bet BC TO cover i can get them at 10.5. No doubt Calgary is gonna win cup but seem a bit sloppy going there

Thanks for checking in and for sharing the information Freddie.

From Vegasinsider, it said that Lulay was out, so knowing that helps....and, I'm actually liking this card for the first time in over a month....."beauty is in the eyes of the beholder" or something like that.....

I want to make a correction on an earlier post.

Home divisional dogs in October on at least a 3 game losing streak have been have been 2-10-1 ATS (-3.04) and 2-11 straight up (-8.38), NOT 7-2 as I mentioned earlier.  So, deleting any interest in taking the Argos Friday night.

Non-divisional away dogs in October have been 34-22 ATS (-0.27) and 19-36 straight up (-6.86)  Redblacks

When they have been away dogs of less than six points this moves to 20-11 ATS and 14-17 straight up

Divisional away dogs in October have been 44-30-2 ATS (+1.28)  in October  and 28-47-1 straight up (-4.71)   Lions, Roughriders

Divisional away dogs in October of >6 points have been 18-9 ATS (+4.43) and 8-19 straight up (-5.26)  Lions

Divisional away dogs in October of <=6 points have been 26-21-2 (-0.46) and 20-28 straight up (-4.41)  Roughriders

Away divisional dogs facing a team in October on at least a 3 game winning streak have been 11-3 ATS (+7.20) and 6-9 straight up (0.40)  Riders, Lions 

Plays:

1)  Redblacks +3'

2)  Riders +3'

3)  Lions +10'

Good fortune

NFL plays....

1)  Eagles -3

2)  Browns +1'

3)  Raiders +3

4)  Redskins -1'

I'll take the Colts if the line goes to 3.

I am on all 4 CFL dogs this week.  

Best wishes

It's a dog eat dog world Spot....good fortune.

Love your picks I always follow

Thanks guys, wishing everyone well.

As handicappers we are making (hopefully educated) guesses,..........my particular picks are based on the hypothesis that history tends to repeat itself.  The King of Covers handicapping contest is full of those who are doing it in more effective matter than me.

We are not in competition with each other, but more so, we're interested in beating the line.

We'll see what happens.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."

Bertrand Russell

Here is a query that favors the Eagles tonight,...we go against a home dog (Giants) that has a better average against the spread performance year-to-date on Thursday night whose opponent will be a favorite next game.

0-11 straight up (-11.81) and 1-8-2 ATS  (-7.45)

HD  and on:F and tA(ats margin) > oA(ats margin)  and day = Thursday

Thursday and Monday night favorites tend to perform better than Sunday day game favorites

I got out of my Eagles -3 and now have them at -2'....not great, but better than 3....hopefully you all waited out the line and would play them at -1.

In the NFL I added on, so now have:

1)  Eagles -2' winner

2)  Redskins -1'

3)  Steelers +115

4)  Raiders +3

5)  Browns +1'

Waiting on the Colts line to move higher

You are still making assumptions of who I am.

Write your novels on your own thread, maybe you'll win a Pulitzer for excellence in online journalism, or alternatively perhaps no one will be bothered tuning into your narcissism.

And you were correct,  not for one moment did I think you were a lighthouse.

Adding two and subtracting one for final NFL card:

1)  Eagles -3 winner

2)  Steelers +115

3)  Redskins -1

4)  Raiders +3

5)  Jets +2

6)  Bucs +3

Cancelling Browns

The  Bucs fall into a scenario where they are off three straight losses exactly to a divisional rival, they have a better record than their present opponent and the opponent's winning percentage is less than .667.  Plus they are a less than 40% pick in the King of Covers contest which is hitting at an insane rate this year so far.

17-2 ATS (+7.58) and 11-8 straight up (+3.26)

P:L and PP:L and PPP:L and AD  and DIV   and oA(W)<.666 and tA(W)>oA(W) and PPPP:W

A game number 6 home non-divisional dog playing a team with at least four wins (Broncos)

27-14 ATS (+4.87) and 22-19 straight up (-0.17) and 26-15 O/U (+3.10)

game number=6 and not DIV and o:wins>3 and HD

A dog after game 5 that has a net average margin/game deficit season to date  versus their opponent of >20 points game.  (Broncos).  Broncos average margin is -6.20 and Rams is 15.00

105-65 ATS (+1.87) 

oA(margin)-tA(margin)>20 and game number>5 and D 

Favorites rule this weekend in the CFL, which is bad news for Indigo.

1)  Lions +10' winner

2)  Sasquatches +3' loser

3)  Redblacks +3' loser

1-2 for the week, 36-27 for the season.

Sets up a battle for regular season supremacy in the East as the Redblacks and the Tiger Cats will fight it out for first place, playing each other twice in the next two weeks.  Redblacks won the previous meeting this season and head-to-head records matter if those two teams were to end up being tied for first place, so the Redblacks presently own the pole position even though they have the same record