I would have made the Redblacks -1.5 in their game versus the Tiger Cats, which is pretty close to the opening line. Public and/or smart early money has moved the line to where the Cats are favored.
I would have had the Argos at -3/3.5ish.
In past history in October divisional games the road team has dominated, as I mentioned last week. Days of the week matter, typically both Friday and Saturday games favor the road team.
Here's a query that looks at that.
month = 10 and H and day = Saturday, Friday and DIV and tA(W)>=oA(W)
When the home team has a greater than or equal record to their present opponent the home team has been....
9-12-2 ATS on Saturday (+1.85) and 16-6-1 (+8.09) straight up..........Argonauts, Stampeders
8-16 ATS on Friday (-7.06) 10-14 straight up (-1.06) straight up Redblacks, Lions
When our home team is in the same scenario and playing with revenge HF and day = Saturday and DIV and tA(W)>=oA(W)
9-14-1 overall, 3-6-1 ATS in October Stamps, Alouettes
When our home team won the previous game matchup (Redblacks and Lions) H and day = Friday and DIV and tA(W)>=oA(W) and P:W
18-33 ATS (-7.49) and 25-26 straight up (-1.35) and 6-9 ATS in October
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
36-27 ATS, 1-2 last week.
I would have made the Redblacks -1.5 in their game versus the Tiger Cats, which is pretty close to the opening line. Public and/or smart early money has moved the line to where the Cats are favored.
I would have had the Argos at -3/3.5ish.
In past history in October divisional games the road team has dominated, as I mentioned last week. Days of the week matter, typically both Friday and Saturday games favor the road team.
Here's a query that looks at that.
month = 10 and H and day = Saturday, Friday and DIV and tA(W)>=oA(W)
When the home team has a greater than or equal record to their present opponent the home team has been....
9-12-2 ATS on Saturday (+1.85) and 16-6-1 (+8.09) straight up..........Argonauts, Stampeders
8-16 ATS on Friday (-7.06) 10-14 straight up (-1.06) straight up Redblacks, Lions
When our home team is in the same scenario and playing with revenge HF and day = Saturday and DIV and tA(W)>=oA(W)
9-14-1 overall, 3-6-1 ATS in October Stamps, Alouettes
When our home team won the previous game matchup (Redblacks and Lions) H and day = Friday and DIV and tA(W)>=oA(W) and P:W
18-33 ATS (-7.49) and 25-26 straight up (-1.35) and 6-9 ATS in October
In competitive games where the two teams have similar records the road team has also dominated. The data favors the Tiger Cats and the Eskimos, but won't play the Esks as I really like the Lions,.......the Lions/Eskimos will likely be a no-play for me.
Plays:
1) Tiger Cats -1'
2) Alouettes +4'
I take my pick to win the Grey Cup, Hamilton who have mucked around all year instead of dominating their division like they should have.
And, of course we have to take the mighty, mighty Alouettes in the Dysfunctional Bowl, we are expecting both teams to have taken their medications and to show up at the correct venue.
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In competitive games where the two teams have similar records the road team has also dominated. The data favors the Tiger Cats and the Eskimos, but won't play the Esks as I really like the Lions,.......the Lions/Eskimos will likely be a no-play for me.
Plays:
1) Tiger Cats -1'
2) Alouettes +4'
I take my pick to win the Grey Cup, Hamilton who have mucked around all year instead of dominating their division like they should have.
And, of course we have to take the mighty, mighty Alouettes in the Dysfunctional Bowl, we are expecting both teams to have taken their medications and to show up at the correct venue.
Just went onto a popular tout's website....I am an information junkie and I'm always looking for something that might make a positive difference in my handicapping or alternatively help me avoid losses.
And, that is what he was putting out there into cyberspace....
In college football teams that rush for >150 yards and allow <150 yards have been hitting x-y against the spread as dogs this year. Alternatively teams that rush for <150 yards and allow >150 yards have been very bad against the spread as favorites. He listed the yearly record of both, which I'll not post.
"Great, I thought" this could really be a goldmine!!"
Of course though, I have to have data to back up that this actually was something that had intrinsic worth or that it was a pile of rubbish.
So, off to the database I went.
The record in college football of fading a favorite that averages less than 150 yards/game and allows more than 150 yards/game is????
D and oA(rushing yards)<150 and oA(o:rushing yards)>150
707-674-39 ATS, 51.2%
The record in college football of taking a dog that averages greater than 150 yards/game and allows less than 150 yards/game??
D and tA(rushing yards)>150 and tA(o:rushing yards)<150
1060-992-61 51.7%
Now, I don't know this handicapper and his intentions, but it is a losing strategy to use this type of information in picking a team to bet on. Statfox spits out not losing strategy, but erroneous data and has for years and years. I suppose they just figure that 98% of the handicappers aren't going to be bothered actually checking to verify what they put out there. Wonder how they sleep at night...and if you go to their site it is pretty much a ghost town of activity. Deception lowers the vibration of an individual or entity, be it a corporation or a group of people, which often brings less than desirable consequences into their lives....Enron was a perfect example.
Good fortune to all punters this weekend.
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Play:
3) Riders +8'
Just went onto a popular tout's website....I am an information junkie and I'm always looking for something that might make a positive difference in my handicapping or alternatively help me avoid losses.
And, that is what he was putting out there into cyberspace....
In college football teams that rush for >150 yards and allow <150 yards have been hitting x-y against the spread as dogs this year. Alternatively teams that rush for <150 yards and allow >150 yards have been very bad against the spread as favorites. He listed the yearly record of both, which I'll not post.
"Great, I thought" this could really be a goldmine!!"
Of course though, I have to have data to back up that this actually was something that had intrinsic worth or that it was a pile of rubbish.
So, off to the database I went.
The record in college football of fading a favorite that averages less than 150 yards/game and allows more than 150 yards/game is????
D and oA(rushing yards)<150 and oA(o:rushing yards)>150
707-674-39 ATS, 51.2%
The record in college football of taking a dog that averages greater than 150 yards/game and allows less than 150 yards/game??
D and tA(rushing yards)>150 and tA(o:rushing yards)<150
1060-992-61 51.7%
Now, I don't know this handicapper and his intentions, but it is a losing strategy to use this type of information in picking a team to bet on. Statfox spits out not losing strategy, but erroneous data and has for years and years. I suppose they just figure that 98% of the handicappers aren't going to be bothered actually checking to verify what they put out there. Wonder how they sleep at night...and if you go to their site it is pretty much a ghost town of activity. Deception lowers the vibration of an individual or entity, be it a corporation or a group of people, which often brings less than desirable consequences into their lives....Enron was a perfect example.
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