Week 2

STD 1-4, -6.18 units

That was a first, going 0-3 ATS in the CFL, taking all underdogs, very humbling.

We'll see what this coming week has in store.

Angles.....

1)  Play on an away dog before week 9 that will be a favorite or their present opponent will be a dog their next game...140-76-4 ATS..........ON Tiger Cats, Elks 

AD and (n:F or on:D) and week<9

2)  Play on a home dog before week 9 that will be a favorite or their present opponent will be a dog their next game....38-25 ATS.....Redblacks?

Redblacks probably will be favorites week 3 at home to Edmonton, but this will probably be predicated on how week 2 goes, so I am not taking the Redblacks.  Also, as discussed last week, the Eastern Division has been very bad hosting the West in early season going back many years.

Plays, all for two units:

1)  Bombers -6

2)  Elks +7

3)  Tiger Cats +1'

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USFL

4)  Stars pik

5)  Maulers +4

Good fortune everyone.

In past years, underdogs may have covered often because of more parity among teams.  But the worst team still tends to perform badly against point spread.  In 2022 and 2023, parity seems to be lacking especially between best and worst teams.  So betting on Edmonton to cover might be risky?  With so many new players, Edmonton might need more time to reach potential.

Edmonton is a tough bet this week.

Good luck Indy 

Thanks Bold.

Looks like heavy action on the Bombers, Tiger Cats and Lions....Lions line has moved up to 7.5 in some places, and they were arguably the most impressive week 1 team.

In past years one could make money in the CFL by looking at the CFL.ca power ratings and playing the bottom two teams as dogs off a loss and going against the top two teams as favorites off a win.....usually kicked in about week 5.

Any predictive angles in the CFL are much better taking away dogs more so than home dogs, and fading home favorites more than away favorites, for whatever reason.

In other words, any excuse to take road teams, especially against the Eastern Division teams usually brought home the money.

Trevor Harris is questionable to play....who is the backup for the Riders?  My guess is that they will not risk him so early in the season

In the NBA this year teams with a very good player out covered around 65% of the time, it was uncanny.  If that injury persisted it was the SECOND game after that injured player was out that the  team whose star was injured that would get crushed.

CFL.ca staff writers' picks.....after the Stampeders' win last night when the writers' have at least 83% of them on one team they are 3-0 this season so far, THAT and the fact that 4 out of 5 favorites have covered so far are not normal CFL.

Calgary 100%

Bombers 100%

Lions 100%

Toronto 67%

Plays, all for two units:

1)  Bombers -6.......winner

2)  Elks +7

3)  Tiger Cats +1'

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USFL

4)  Stars pik

5)  Maulers +3'

We're on the board with the Bombers win....the Riders will win some games this season as Trevor Harris is about a 7 point/game improvement over Fajardo.

I can't see myself fading the Bombers anytime in the near future as they probably have a better offense this season than they did during their championship seasons with Harris as their running back, as their offensive line and quarterback are the best in the league by a mile.  Bookmakers making lines in the CFL have a very low tolerance for favorites covering and we'll expect double digit lines very soon going forward.  Oughta be an interesting line next week with the Bombers hosting the Lions....if the Lions hold serve tomorrow versus the Elks I'd make it  Bombers -8 55.

Riders go on the road next week and will be away dogs versus the Stamps in a battle of the Dickenson brothers....an away divisional dog before week 6 that lost at home their previous game have gone 11-3-2 ATS (+5.6) and 6-10 straight up (-2.0).....this moves to 5-1, 1-5 o/u if their present opponent won on the road their previous game.

I will make Riders +3.5/+4ish.

Maulers in the USF line has come down from 4 to 3 juiced....the USFL this year has been very CFL-like, with underdogs covering at a very high rate.....we likey......in the NHL we had success this season with taking strong road teams, almost always as away dogs.

Waiting on the Elks line to move....here in Vegas it is still a rock solid 7, whereas betregal in Canada has them at +7.5, sportsinteraction it's +7, +105, while pinnacle Canada has them at +7 -104. 

Those established sportsbooks hate moving off of lines of 7 and 3 and they rarely tip their hand of who the public is on by juicing the line.

The defending champs, the Argos have moved into the home dog role...what does our database say about teams like that?...how have they done?

A home divisional dog that played in at least two playoff games the season prior that had the better record than their present opponent has gone 5-7 ATS (-1.6) and 5-7 straight up (-4.0), 4-8 o/u..........1-5 ATS in the last six games.

If we just use that those teams are home (rather than a home dog) versus a divisional rival and their opponent is off an away loss this has been 5-6 ATS but 10-1 straight up, 2-9 o/u.

This comes with a caveat that the linesmaker the past couple of seasons has lowered totals around 7 points to what it was before that, so if you are betting totals be aware.  My belief is that scoring will revert to what it was before covid in the CFL.

H and tpS(W)>opS(W) and tpS(playoffs)>1 and op:AL

A home favorite of more than 6 points that will be an underdog their next game has gone 36-72 ATS (-3.4), 75-34 straight up (+5.6) and 51-58 o/u in the CFL.

If this is a divisional game those teams have gone 21-40 ATS.

If we take away the line requirement of being greater than 6 and stipulate this game is before week 7, this has been 14-35-3 ATS, 28-23-1 straight up.

HF and n:D and week<7 and DIV

King of Covers contest picks.....

Toronto 72%

BC 70%

Often, but not always, it is a good sign to be going against common consensus.

I am convinced now and perhaps I am a very slow learner ....Edmonton with Cornelius is unbackable, no pocket presence whatsoever.....if your team can't throw, at least get a quarterback in there who can has some escapability and can make some yards with his legs.

A favorite covers yet again.

Plays, all for two units:

1)  Bombers -6.......winner

2)  Elks +7................loser

3)  Tiger Cats +1'

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USFL

4)  Stars pik

5)  Maulers +3'........winner

Last two games go off in 30 minutes....

Line of the Tiger Cats has moved up to -3, and the Philadelphia Stars has moved up to -3 as well.

Typically someone  who plays on teams early in the week whose line go the same direction as those teams they have bet on will typically have success in betting football.  The higher of a percentage of those games that go that bettor's way, the more profitable they will be, or the course of a season and in a lifetime.

An example is if team A on Monday is -3, you bet them at that line..... by the time of the day of the game they are  -5....the line bet the way you bet them.

Someone who bets the correct way that the line moves 55% of the time will have a lower winning percentage  than someone who goes the way the lines moves 70% of the time.