I'll go over some data that I've found....it may be a bit confusing,....ask if you have questions, I'll explain what I've found the best that I can.
I've been betting the CFL for a couple of years, and the sportsdatabase.com data goes back to 2007.
Evidently there was either one less game or one less bye week than there is now until 2014, when it changed to have an extra week on the CFL schedule.
In the first week of the playoffs in week 20 (before 2014), favorites were 2-10-1 against the spread (ATS) and 9-5 straight up.
In the first week of the playoffs when a week was added on to make the first week of the playoffs week 21 (2014 and beyond) favorites have been 4-1-1 ATS and 6-0 straight up.
Almost diametrically opposed results.
Home favorites of 4 or less in first round games have been 2-5-1 ATS, 3-3 SU pre-2014.
Home favorites of 4 or less in first round games have been 2-0 ATS and 2-0 ATS after 2013...
Small sample size, yes, I know.
When computing the average covering margins of the teams on a per game basis, here's what sportsdatabase has....
1) Bombers +2.67
2) Eskimos -.42
3) Redblacks +2.31
4) Riders +5.22
In the history of the database those teams that were dogs and had the better average spread covering margins....(the Bombers and Riders in this case) had these results on a week by week basis.
ATS Straight up teased
week 20 3-1 1-3 3-1
week 21 3-1 2-2 3-1
week 22 2-3 0-5 3-2
If form holds, it means that the games likely could be very close.....I haven't played these games yet, but I may consider teasing them, which happens rarely for me.
The median margin of victory of these 13 games was 3 points by the favorite. The favorite lost 3 times, won one by a point and won 3 games by 3 points....the remaining 6 games it won by more than 3.
So, let's look at the idea of teasing these games based on past history.....teasing the dog resulted in a 9-4 record, 69% which isn't a good enough record to justify teasing two teams...a minimum of 72% is needed to have it be considered a percentage play.
Teasing the favorite with the worse average covering margin? We mentioned earlier that they were 5-8 ATS and 10-3 SU in the playoffs overall, teasing them would have brought you to 10-3 ATS.....and in the 1st round 1-4 ATS turned into 4-1 when teased.
So in the past, teasing favorites was a good strategy based on past history, but teasing dogs was not.
Teams that have had a negative per game covering average....(the Eskimos), have been 9-3 straight up but 2-10 ATS as favorites. In their first game of the playoffs they've been 7-3 ATS and 2-8 ATS.....if they're playing an opponent who also is playing their first playoff game it moves to 6-2 straight up and 1-7 ATS. Basically those teams that have been poor at covering during the season continue to be poor, but they have won most of the time when expected to (as favorites).
Good fortune on your plays.
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