Posted:
#1
Hello Fellow Canuck Pigskin Degenerates,
I usually do not start posting until Week # 4 to get a feel. However, I am off to a great start but I have not posted so enough said on that.
MTL +3 at home looks very tempting with their 6-0 record coming off a road loss and dogs being 9-1-1 to date in the league and there is a strong 19-6 ML PLAY vs. the TICATS.
Ham's 3rd road game in a row (hell they do not see home til something like AUG.5TH) yet they are coming off a bye which downgrades this play for me and getting more tape on speedy Alouettes ex-Marshall QB Cato.
Linemakers see what I see- a high scoring game. Set at 52.5 which is very high these days for the CFL.
1* PLAY ON THE OVER
1* MTL +4 (buy a point. The "rouge" makes this a key #)
I have a gut feeling HAM wins by 3 and this prevents a PUSH.
NOTE: LY the linemakers reduced the average total by 3.5 to 4.5 ppg and the league played 71.7% to the UNDER. I recorded and checked every game. The year before was 67% but at about 4 ppg higher.
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OTT+3.5 at home.
I said OTT would be the real deal this year with a stingy yet improved "D" and 7 stud receivers incl. Hec Creighton winner in the CIS Sinopoli who has been converted to a wideout and a damn good one at that. Just ask Bo Levi Mitchell who was sad to see him leave. 3 ex-Ticats incl. speedy Chris Williams back in the league after a short NFL sabbatical and two speedy yet different style running backs round out the weaponry at QB Burris' disposal.
To me their success this season will be largely predicated on Burris confidence in his receiving corps and whether he will force the ball or not as he did 4X in an ugly road win in Game 1 vs. Montreal.
This week in the 2nd of a home and home series will see a much closer low scoring game. They basically coughed up 17 pts. in the first two drives on the road last week in a hostile stadium. A FG off the post from their dwarf like kicker and Henry throwing a pick 6 out of the gate saw them down early and they never recovered as the Esks defence put on a ferocious clinic.
Backup Esks QB Nicolls is not a good QB. He got his 1st CFL win in 6 attempts last week . I'm betting it was because he had 2 full weeks of reps at home with QB1 Mike Reilly building his confidence all through that prep time. He won't be as good on the road with OTT out to get the equalizer.
OTT (buy it to +4 if need be) in a close win at home 2*
UNDER 48.5 3*
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SSK -4 at home
How often do you see a team lose 2 weeks in a row in 2OT?
I feel this is not such a big number to lay at home where they are very tough coming off a road loss. Kevin Glenn is a very capable QB in place of Durant and this is also a home and home series where I like SSK in revenge esp. with their dual threat running game of the two beasts Messam and Allen. They utilize their backs like few teams do in the pass happy CFL. They do that and keep Lulay off the field-who had a helluva prolific game last week- and they will cover the number plus we should see an UNDER in this game as well. A series that often goes to the under and coming off the big OT fueled total of last week. No way these guys go 0-4 out of the gate.
SSK -4 3*
UNDER 51 2*
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CAL -9 at home
I have NO opinion on the total but I really like WPG here. As long as WPG QB Drew Willy can stay upright and healthy through this entire contest they will stay inside the number. My biggest reasons are the losses of two big offensive lineman in Harrison and Federkeil for CAL and only 5 days to prepare after a tough home win over the Argos.
WPG +9 4*
NOTE: Each * reps a UNIT-whatever you are comfortable playing. ENJOY THE TILTS!!
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Thanks for the write ups, BOL, With you on them 
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