week 5 Indigo

13-13 STD pending the Argos/Bombers game.

              Indigo week 5

Edmonton          +4   Calgary    49

Saskatchewan     -9   Ottawa    50

British Columbia  pik Winnipeg 50

The game we're all waiting to see will be in British Columbia next week.

Craziness continues in the CFL....Argos steal an interception from the Bombers to get a touchdown and then hand a sure redzone reception to the Bombers for an interception.

We end up 5-3 for the week and are 14-14 for the season posting here.....I am 18-10 in the KOC contest.

Oughta be interesting what they put up for the BC/Bombers game.

Angles 

A home dog past week three that won their first game last game .....0-5-1 ATS (-8.8), 0-6 straight up (-11.7), 2-4 o/u (-4.8).....Elks

A winless away dog week>3 and that lost their last game at home,....2-5-1 ATS (-11.8), 0-8 straight up (-19.1), 2-6 o/u (-3.3).....Redblacks

Week >3 away team where both teams are unbeaten.....3-0 ATS (+15.3), 3-0 straight up (+14.1), 0-3 o/u (-12.3) ......Bombers 

CFL experts' picks now sit at 1-5 ATS encompassing the past two weeks. 

We look to fade their straight up picks when 5 or 6 out of 6 writers are on one side....they had Hamilton and Winnipeg in week four games.

I don't know if it's their opening line, but Heritage has BC -3 48.

I have a query that favors SSK SU (15-0, 8.1) but I am not crazy about laying -310.  That same query is only 5-10 ATS.

Good luck this week.

Some books have their lines out.....using pinnacle's.

               Indigo's                                           Pinnacle

Edmonton          +4   Calgary    49                +3.5     50

Saskatchewan     -9   Ottawa    50                   -7'      45        

British Columbia  pik Winnipeg 50                    -3      48

Angles......

a)  All away non-divisional away dogs before week 11.....129-97-2 (+0.2, 57.1%)

if the game is on Friday....57-28  ATS (+4.0, 67.1%).....Eastern Division teams 23-11 ATS (+6.0, 67.6%).

If our away dog on Friday will either be a favorite next game or their present opponent will be a dog....46-14 ATS (+7.1, 76.7%), 33-25 straight up (+2.5)....Eastern Division teams 24-8 ATS, 15-16 straight up (+1.72)

AD and week<11 and division!=o:division and day=Friday and (n:F or on:D) and division

Redblacks

b)  Home divisional dogs who opponent will be a dog next game.....11-5 ATS, 10-6 straight up....if their opponent will be a dog their next two games this moves to 7-0 ATS (+10.9), 6-1 straight up (+6.9)

Calgary's next two games are at Winnipeg and then home to the Bombers.

HD and week<11 and division=o:division and on:D and onn:D

Elks

Plays:

1)  Redblacks +7', two units

2)  Elks +3'

Angles....

c)  An away divisional dog who will be a favorite their next two games......39-18 ATS (+4.9) 30-27 straight up (+0.1).....if the line is <=7 this moves to 31-16 ATS, 26-21 straight up (+0.8).

AD and week<11 and division!=o:division and on:D and onn:D and line<=7

Bombers

@Indigo999

 Re-read that query.  I don't think WPG's opponent (BC) will be a dog in their next two games.

Yes, thanks for picking that up, I stated it correctly, but the query text was incorrect.....what I wanted to display is an away dog that will be a favorite their next two games.....22-10-2 ATS (+3.6, 68.8%), 14-19 straight up, (-1.3, 42.4%).....this moves to 12-5-2 ATS, 9-9 straight up if the line is less than or equal to +5.....Bombers

Apologies to the masses, both friends and foes alike.

AD and n:F and nn:F and division=o:division and week<11 and line<=5

If you want to make God laugh tell him your plans.......

Woody Allen

Will I once again curse the WPG selection?  I don't know, but here I go anyway:

H and p:points + pp:points + ppp:points > 110.5 and 42.7 < total < 53.2 (fade BC)

ATS:  4-12-0 (-8.7, 25%)

Further expounding on the Redblacks angle.....

An away dog with zero wins  that will either be a favorite their next game or their opponent will be a dog, with a line of >5......28-6 ATS (+8.9, 82.4%), 15-19 straight up (+0.2, 44.1%)....average line/total +8.68/51.46.....average score 26.4-26.2

If this is only non-divisional games this moves to 18-4 ATS.....if this is beyond week 2 this moves to 10-0 ATS (+8.9), 6-0 ATS (+9.9) in non-divisional games past week 2. 

AD and (n:F or on:D) and t:wins=0 and line>5 

@Indigo999

I looked at Massey's matchups for week #6.  He has OTT as a dog at HAM and SSK favored at TOR.

Maybe your power ratings will more accurately predict the upcoming lines than Massey's.  I hope you are correct.

I am using Hoody's power ratings in this case, and I have a lot of respect for what he puts out.

After 4 weeks, there are just a few perfect against the point spreads remaining.  Calgary total over 3-0, BC 3-0 ATS and fading Hamilton 4-0 ATS.  Money line favorites are 14-2 so far.  Normally, CFL favors underdog and total under point spreads.  But dogs have been 8-8 ATS and over/under is 9-7.

Yes, true, which is why my record so far is not too great....perhaps we'll see a  regression of scoring from last year and totals will continue to go OVER, but I don't expect the favorites to continue to dominate....the linemaker will raise the lines and the bad teams will improve as the season goes on....and injuries and fatigues will level the playing field between the good and poor teams.

The Bombers are already showing signs of cracking....I'd be surprised if they have a positive covering record the rest of the season.

I copied and pasted this from a NFL forum  thread....this is relevant obviously to NFL games only.

CFL.ca staff member's picks have gone 1-4 the last two weeks on a pointspread basis.   We look to fade their picks when either 5 or 6 out of six writers are on one side.

This week 6 out of 6 have the Stampeders, 5 out of 6 have the Lions (and four out 6 have the Roughriders).

Top 20 CFL picks, 4 hours before game time.

Edmonton 2 Calgary 14

OVER 11 UNDER 3

We'll see who's right and  who's wrong soon enough.