Posted:
#1
Wager:
Missouri +6.5(-110) 11u to win 10u…
Leans:
***Missouri +6.5… Experience. Arkansas starts 1 freshman & 1 sophomore yet only has had a senior play more than 30 minutes in a game just 2 times all season long. Moving to the bench Arkansas’s bench is also young as 3 of the 4 top production players coming off the bench are either sophomore or freshman. It’s the experience of Missouri’s backcourt between Clarkson, Brown & Ross that have me excited for this wager as all 3 go 1, 2, 3 in scoring as they are all excellent shooters (Nobody less than 53% from 2pt% & nobody less than 76% from FT%). All 3 players stand 6’5’’ and play extensive minutes. These 3 players have gotten to the FT stripe a combined 334 times this year making 261 on those free throws (78%). Arkansas ranks 10th in 3pt% defense inside the SEC and DEAD LAST in personal fouls per game in the SEC (#278 overall at 21.1fpg). Absolutely dreadful numbers IMO when playing teams with solid backcourts with good shooters who look to drive the lane 1st and shoot 2nd. An experienced backcourt here should give Arkansas fits all night….
**Baylor -5.5… West Virginia has beating only 1 team inside the top 100 this year (Texas Tech #90). Baylor may finally feel like they have a comfortable matchup tonight though vs the undersized West Virginia squad. So not only does West Virginia have the down right horrible loss to #181 Va Tech on their resume they also are 0-3su & 0-3ats vs teams in the top 100 in 2 columns (offensive rebounding & Defense). Those losses were to Purdue, Texas & Kansas St as 2 of which were on West Virginia’s home floor. The one road game was vs Kansas St who’s offense is pretty bad at #261 in 3pt% & #188 in 2pt% as Kansas St pounded West Virginia by 22pts. Those 3 teams went 62 for 121(51.2%) from 2pt% vs West Virginia and grabbed a total of 126 rebounds. So that’s an average of 51.2% from 2pt% when the nations average is 48.5%, and an average of 42 rebounds per game when the nations average is 34.8. Of those 3 molded teams I mentioned Baylor has by far the best offense at #48 overall and by far the best off reb% at #4. I mean when this ball tips off, who is going to box out players like 6’9’’ Cory Jefferson & 7’1’’ Isaiah Austin? The only starter in West Virginia’s lineup that stands taller than 6’4’’ is a freshman who is 6’9’’ and has good size but he’s only played 19.75 minutes per game in the last 4 and only played more than 30 minutes in 4 out of a possible 20 games this year. Baylor beat this West Virginia team both times last year (once at home by 20 and then on the road by 3). Hard to see that model changing any unless West Virginia goes crazy from 3pt% tonight. SAD TO SAY MY 2ND LOOK HAD ME PASS ON THE CHALK HERE…:(
**Iowa -6… One thing I learned just recently from MSU is that when given the chance Gary Harris is a baller. But the rest of his team w/o Payne & Dawson? Well that’s a different story. Iowa is crazy deep and has size and can shoot, not to mention push tempo when needed. I’m sure a lot of people will be gladly willing to lay the points here just because MSU is injury riddled…
*South Florida +7.5… It’s still up in the air how good SMU actually is. Their 5 games vs the toughest opponents have resulted in a 1-4su record this far & they have Memphis on deck this Saturday…
*Wichita St -19.5… Congratulations if you’ve been blindly betting this team laying what ever up to this point. You’re cashing 82% of your bets on them. If you don’t think such sort of results have pushed the juice and chalk to a peak level now then you don’t understand market value. What’s going to be interesting is how the Shockers fair in their remaining 10 games 8 of those 10 games should be heavy chalk including being favored in every one of those games. Their 3 toughest games this year were vs BYU, Tenn & Alabama. I truly believe Wichita St is a good team but not a great team as come tourney time they will miss the ball handling and scoring ability of Malcolm Armstead who scored 60pts in 4 NCAA tourney wins last season.
**Texas Tech +9 & ML(+380)…. Texas Tech is going to have a strong shot at winning this game. They have only lost 1 game in conference play by more than this number and that was vs the #11 tempo of Iowa St and their super offense of #28. Only 3 teams in B12 with tempo’s in the #300’s (Baylor, Texas Tech & Kansas St). Texas Tech beat Baylor already by 10pts as their 7 footer played a season high 38 minutes scoring a season high 14pts, and dishing off a season high 6 assists. Hopefully Tubby Smith seen that and reacts correctly by paling him some heavy minutes tonight. But I don’t wager on hope as Dejan Kravic (The played I’m speaking of) has only played combined 36 minutes in the last 2 games which both resulted in losses to West Virginia & Oklahoma. Texas Tech is 3-0 when Kravic plays more than 30 minutes in a game this year. If you can guarantee me that than Tech will have a solid chance. But you can’t guarantee me that, so I have to pass…
**Cleveland St -8.5… You give me Sebastian Douglas back tonight and the Vikings cover this road number easily vs the lowly EIU Panthers. But they may cover it even w/o him with was as well. That’s how bad EIU is. EIU has lost at home by 8 or more 3 times this year as 2 of those games were vs teams rated #166 & #126. Cleveland St is a very sound basketball team that plays good defense at #73 that doesn’t need to force the tempo to create success. Cleveland St has Detroit on Fri though. REALLY WANTED TO MAKE THIS WAGER AS WELL BUT PASSED!
*Notre Dame +3.5… When your only win in the last 5 games at the moment is Va Tech at home it becomes hard for me to think about wagering on you. That said UVa is 1-3su in their last 3 road games & Notre Dame is not a complete chump (At lest not to my knowledge just yet)…
**Creighton -12.5… You pull up a matchup report sheet and see that St John’s is #196 in 3pt% defense. STOP RIGHT THERE. What else do you really need to read…
**Kentucky -3.5… Liked them last night at -2. And to no shod the whole world likes them as well. Probably going to be the most popular bet on the board tonight. But I’m not into lots of freshman and road chalk inside a tough conference…
*Utah St -3… Same as above. Liked then at -1 last night but betting market has loathed up in this one as well as it’s now up to -3. Betting value is now gone as New Mexico is not a team to take lightly by any measure...
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