12/4 Wagers;

Back to basics. Went cute as I thought it was a day for underdogs and my over/under system failed as well.

2 bets for Wednesday:

St Bonaventure -6.5 (-120) @ Bucknell 2.4u

Marshall -10 (-115) vs Morehead State. 2.3u

Bol!

You're one of the best on the site and always grab my attention. I know you can win any given day with sharp focus. 

Added:

Idaho St +5 @ South Dakota (-113) 2.26u

Texas Tech -14.5 vs DePaul (-114) 2.28u

In order of confidence:

Marshall

Texas Tech 

Idaho St 

St Bonaventure 

@poopdawg15

 Appreciate the kind words. You take the good with the bad. Yesterday was an off day. This is a tough gambling window between the Thanksgiving tourneys and conference play.

Good luck MB.  

good luck man 

Best of luck today, but I can't believe Idaho State is the best play on the board against a good South Dakota team at home that just put up 79 on Nebraska. Might find myself on the other side of that one. 

For those interested, Idaho st. does have some good film easily available, which is not always the case with off-brand schools: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWowDzGoQTc

@poopdawg15

 South Dakota does have a reliably shitty defense. You've got me looking at the Idaho State team total 74.5 

I don't think Idaho St will win but I definitely don't see them losing by 2-3 possessions.

Ken Pom has Idaho St at 229 and South Dakota at 239. Even with HCA, I have SD at -0.5/-1.0.

Offensive efficiency SD is 100th/Idaho State is 277

Defensive efficiency SD is 323/Idaho State is 135.

Idaho State is 5-0 ATS on the road.

Idaho St is 40th in FT%

SD is 240th in FT%

Idaho State is 31st in Rebounding %

South Dakota is 263 Rebounding %

I think Idaho St has the interior size to neutralize SD interior scoring.

@Mark_Bellhorn12

 Love the high effort posting, thank you. I'm expecting a hard fought game here. My thinking as of right now is 153 is high for a hard fought game, with baskets at a premium. Idaho State opponents average 68.4. If the Idaho State defense has an above average night tonight, they'll have to score 84.6 points to hit that over. My leans right now are Marquette Iowa State under 151; Idaho State South Dakota under 153 with a possible small play on Marquette +210. South Dakota will have many fewer possessions tonight than they did against Nebraska. Nebraska kicking their ass quick is what got that point total to 79. Idaho State is 94th in opponents scoring average, pretty good. I actually drive to a casino to place. Leaving now, but I'll check this thread before hitting the window. I definitely appreciate being able to talk things over with someone working hard to win. 

@poopdawg15

 This thread moved the lines by the time I got to the casino you had moved Idaho State to +3.5; the o/u was 151.5. 

@Mark_Bellhorn12

If it was +3.5 instead of +5, I would be hesitant even with the FT disparity.

I think the unders will dominate again. With so many games, I didn't research o,/u. I'll hold off over/unders until conference play.

@leventis72

@poopdawg15

 I feel your pain as far as having to drive to gamble. I have to drive 20 minutes to Illinois, park at a gas station and place my wagers.

@poopdawg15

 Take a look at the under of 158.5 -112 for FIU/FAU.

FIU is ranked 82nd in defensive efficiency

FAU is 97 in offensive efficiency.

FIU is 318 in offensive efficiency 

FAU is 212 in defensive efficiency.

The total of 159 has been reached once in the last 10 games by both teams.

I put.25u on the under.

St Bonaventure is looking great.

Marshall is looking good.

@Mark_Bellhorn12

 For what it's worth, it looks like Idaho State isn't going to hit 70. We'll see if South Dakota can get 83.

Edit: Spoke too soon. This under looks bad as of right now. Hopefully we'll see some D

St Bonaventure 

Under FIU/FAU  (thankfully only .25u)

@poopdawg15

 24 points at this stage is embarrassing against this poor defense.

@Mark_Bellhorn12

South Dakota shot 60% from 3. I would guess this is the higher scoring of the two halves from them. If their defense keeps up, my under 153 is still a possible. 

I just can't buy a scoring drought in this game. On to the next