13-4-2 +$2360 (Tourney plays)

Beavers TT Under 60

300/270

Beavers have found recent success playing the exact game for the last 2 weeks that Loyola has been playing all year long.  Beavers know they do not have the athletes to run and gun with their opponents of late, they have won slowing the game down, taking away possessions, and playing tremendous defense.  We all know Loyola plays that game better than anyone else in the country, right?  Been watching A LOT of college of late, and I am NOT impressed with the Beavers.  Tennessee has serious NBA players and showed no effort or even will to be there.  Oklahoma State was content with giving the ball to Cunningham and said, "make a shot."  That game saw 77 FT attempts by the way.  For my money, Kofi Cockburn is currently the best inside big in the country, he and Krutwig had an absolute battle last Sunday, Kofi had 2 more points and Krutwig has 5 more boards whilst accumulating 5 steals.  This Calloo kid has indeed had 2 14 points games in the past 3, but lets consider the 39 TOTAL POINTS HE SCORED IN THE OTHER 14 GAMES SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST.  Perhaps their game plan has changed, perhaps he's exponentially better than he was 3 weeks ago, perhaps the Beavers are hiding what they know is a weakness, who knows.  But I'll lay my money on the Historic Senior with the fastest hands in the Mid-West to dominate the paint.


Baylor vs Nova Under 143

500/450

I know I know I have RAVED about Baylor's shooting, they sure as shit showed up for me against the Badgers.  Yes yes the Bears have been up and down this year, due to their Covid break, but it clearly seems they are near where they were before the stoppage.  They are playing efficient offense, and incredible defense.  Bears have perhaps 2 of the best 5 guards remaining in the dance, one of which is, IMO, the best on-ball defender in the nation.  After losing Gillespie, the whole world was ready to right off Nova; yet here we are.  But these ain't the Badgers, and Jay Wright ain't Greg Gard.  I'm willing to gamble Jay Wright, and his 8 consecutive years in the postseason with a week to prepare, has created a game plan to slow the game down.  He's only allowed 1 team in their last 6 games to reach over 60 possessions, and even they barely reached 63 points.  Jay Wright knows his defense will be the only thing to give them a chance in this game.  ENTIRE public on the over after Nova SHAT all over the Mean Green, but Nova ain't making 15 3s against the Bears.  Consider Joe drove this line up from an opening of 139.5, he givens us what equates to .60 cents of value!!!! I'll trust Vegas to know what they're doing more so than the lot of Joe's betting on the dance cuz it's the only thing on.  

thanks not gonna bet the over after reading your write up!

GL

@Panda_Warrior

 Great write up! Thank you for your input. 

thanks for saving me $$$$$ on the baylor over

No other way to put it than this, "BEAVERS PROVED ME WRONG."  

They showed the heart needed at this stage, Loyola must've used all their energy on Illinois.  Unfortunately seems a week was not enough time to game plan and recover.  

Baylor Under seems almost locked in, but I've learned to never call games early.  Let's enjoy the ride on what is currently a FANTASTIC game.

Houston Cougars TT Over 73.5

500/450

First and foremost I am going to make clear that I am not capping the POTENTIAL shooting efficiency of the Orange.  I will say if the Orange were able to shoot above 55% from 3 consistently this year, they would NOT HAVE ENDED 8TH IN THE ACC.  Again, let's say they are able to stay consistent with their unreal shooting expectations they have set for themselves, who cares.  We are focused on the 3rd best rebounding team in the country, vs a bottom 15 team at allowing offensive rebounds.  If you have not watched Houston until the tournament, you do not know the ability they have on the both the offensive and defensive glass.  They boast no player (in their consistent rotation) over 6'8, but holy balls do they play A LOT bigger.  Multiple post game reports are telling of Houston's physicality and and rebounding prowess.  They boast a consistent rotation of 4 players (+/- 15 minutes a game) that average anywhere from 4-9 Rebounds Per Game.  As a team Houston averages near 39 RPG, with 13 of those coming on the offensive glass.  The rebounding and dominant paint play force team into an average of 17 fouls a game, with Houston taking nearly 20 FTA/aG.  Cougs shoot at about 76% as a team.

The beauty of this play is we also have to consider how that Physical and Dominant play style HURT the Cougs.  With them boasting a rotation about 8-9 deep, they can afford to "waste" fouls.  While they never do so intentionally, Houston opponents averaging nearly 25 FTA/aG is very telling of how physical they like to play.  Now use this information and consider how well the Orange shoot, not from beyond the arc, but from the charity stripe.  These New Yorkas shoot at nearly 80% as a team!!! 

Tie this information all together, and we know that their will be some "ugly" points at the latter part of the game, with my inclination being that Houston will have the lead at the end of the game, we'll get some nice "free" points to take us over.  

All this rebounding and free throw crap isn't everything though bois, DO NOT forget Houston owns the 5th best offensive efficiency in the nation.  While they play at a slower pace, they are near as efficient on offense as Baylor and Iowa.  Put a 73.5 TT number next to their number and you think "lock" right?  Now take Houston's efficiency and and throw in the Orange's pourous 3 pt defense, and average (at best) 2pt defense.  The Orange's pace will allow them to be dominated by the efficiency inside of the Cougs.  

Forgive me, I have typed quite a bit and am losing concentration 

BoL brothas

GL

the zone usually gives teams troubles but I had houston scoring around 70 so GL

early results show teams are coming out rusty, 73 may be high for syracuse zone

@dubz4dummyz

 Just doing the best I can brotha 

@dubz4dummyz

 Considered that, but also looked at how Syracuse's defense has allows an average of 28 3Pt APG with an average of opponents making around 9.  

Took that and looked at how Houston averages near 26 3s PG and they make an average of 9 themselves.  Houston LOVES to shoot 3s, Syracuse LOVES to allow 3s, I've got Houston scoring 75.  Syracuse also allows an average of 62 FGA/PG while Houston takes nearly 60+ themselves.  So taking the high attempt rate along with the 3pt % and free throws we SHOULD see at the end of the game and I do not seeing Houston scoring less than 76.

BoL

@Panda_Warrior

 GL buddy I ended up passing on the under and played some player props in the NBA instead