Okay, first post of the college season and a major F Up. My apologies (not that anyone followed a first bet of the season anyway, but still - sorry 'bout that.)
Tex St is the team that has a % to win SU as a Dog that is high enough to qualify it as a play for me, not S Austin. I grabbed them at +2'.
Sea is a play that my #'s say will cover by > double the spread, a rare occurrence that makes it an automatic buy for me. Had to buy off the SA +6' and take Sea -6 for enough to cover my +6' SA bet and still bank a full unit. Ugh. F'ing amateur hour.
Tex St +2'
Sea -6
Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-2
Missed by the hook on Un Pur/Wisc last time in. A "Bad Beat" not because it lost by the hook (losing by the hook is not a bad beat, it sucks to be sure but it's just part of sports betting.) It was a Bad Beat because this was the game that screwed Purdue backers AND under players in the final seconds on a freaky play.
Purdue, -9', in-bounds the ball, up by 10 pts, with just 23 seconds left on the clock. The big question, will Wisconsin - with ZERO chance to win - commit a stupid foul or let the game end? The Badgers back off, they're not going to foul. And the people rejoiced (at least the Purdue backers and Under bettors.) (Python nod there.)
But . . . the ball handler turns slacker and a Wisc scrub steals it AND runs up court for the dunk. Game ends, Wisc covers and the total goes Over by a hook.
Ugh.
For today I have a play on a game and a guessing game.
The play on a game - a situational spot that is 0-0 tournament season but was my strongest play %-wise during the regular season, hitting above the Grail I set of 67%. Note - when handicapping, what worked during the regular season may not work during the post season. Tournament play is a different animal - different incentives/motivations, and of course neutral courts/no home crowd advantage in most cases. So the reg season record means nothing. But, I'm going to ride with it tonight and see it carries over to the tournaments, since Hm/Rd was not part of the equations necessary to qualify in the regular season.
Utah -8 (damn me and these long write-ups, the line just went to -8; should have been -7'.
The guessing game (and public service announcement/warning for tourney time when he had a W % of 27%; yes he lost 73% of his posted plays before disappearing (or, as he'll likely call it when March Madness starts, "Last year was ANOTHER winning season. My eighth winning season here in a row!")
Guess who? (If you know, don't post who it is and ruin it for others.) Here are some clues:
He's a habitual cheater who over the years has been called out for lying about his record more times, by more posters (or "Haters!" as he calls them) than anyone here or at ANY forum. Recent example:
2/14, "Hey, look at me, I'm 13-8! (He really wasn't; that record is, as usual, a lie.) Here are today's winners, Dayton -13, Yale +4, Clem -8."
All three lost.
Next post, "Hey, look at me! Winning as usual, I'm 14-10!"
That's just one of many. His real record isn't the 19-12 he posted last time he gave an update, it was 16-17, and even worse on his BIG Plays, 3-5.
Fresh of a 1-3 Saturday he's now at 25-26, 6-9 on BIG Plays (but will no doubt post a winning record in his next post.)
More picks and clues to follow.
Another clue, one of the funniest posts in covers history, where he forgot to change ID's and was cold busted using aliases to kiss his own ass, yet STILL denied it despite it being right here in the forum for everyone to see:
Post #23, "I am so humble to help all who tail me."
Post #24, Reply by the same id: "I hate to sound like a beggar but I've been on a torrid run tailing you, do you have anything you like today?"
Hannibal
Post #25, by Hannibal: "I guess he forgot to login into his 2nd or 3rd nickname to comment on his own thread. But, according to him, the other posters here are the clowns."
Post #26 by YardMatt: "LOL are you tooting your own horn and asking yourself for plays or are you asking one of your other ghosts?"
A Covers classic!
Recap: 1-0
Record: 4-2
Close one, but got a win with Utah last time in.
Today, a play on a game and another clue for the "Guess the Poster" game. Why? Because I don't like cheaters. I don't like liars. And I don't like dicks who post under multiple IDs to deceive forum members. And this guy is all three.
First, the pick. My numbers say NC St is in a situational spot that gives them a 70% chance of covering the 5'. I'm on 'em.
Guess the poster recap:
He's been caught out cheating more times by more posters than anyone else here.
He's been caught using aliases to kiss his own ass, yet STILL denies it despite it being right here in the forum for everyone to see:
Post #23, "I am so humble to help all who tail me."
Post #24, Reply by the same id: "I hate to sound like a beggar but I've been on a torrid run tailing you, do you have anything you like today?"
Post #25, by Hannibal: "I guess he forgot to login into his 2nd or 3rd nickname to comment on his own thread. But, according to him, the other posters here are the clowns."
Next clue: He starts most of his posts with, "I'll update my record later." Translation: "I'm going to wait a couple days and hope people forget the losses I just gave out when I post my new fake record."
He ends his post with, "Keep comments positive." Translation: "Stop pointing it out when you catch me cheating you HATERS!"
Four of his last five posts he started with, "I'll update my record later" but no updates. (You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes to figure out why.)
Day one of Madness he popped in and told his fanboys that in his recent play, "I posted some solid wins." Reality: he was 1-3 in his last four posted plays. Which is why he didn't update his record
His real season record for college hoops is 25-28. And he's even worse on his BIG plays, 6-10, including 0-2 in March Madness after his moneyline and BIG play on South Carolina both lost.
Habitual liar, perpetual cheater. He makes the regular residents in The Penalty Box look legit.
Do your research, do your due diligence - check a record before you bet based on what's posted. And don't blindly tail anyone. ESPECIALLY this guy.
Okay, the line was 5' when I bought it and came here to post. By the time I was done with the write-up I see it's gone up to -6. So, in case anyone saw the pick and wanted to play but can't get -5' now I'll use -6 for record keeping here. Posting lines that people can't get is a chode move, pulled by attention ho's.
Recap: 0-0-1
Record: 4-2
Got a win on the line I got and posted, NC St -5', but marking it as a push since it went to -6 while I was doing my write-up.
And it looks like 4-2 is where I'm going to end the tournament season. With just a few games left on the schedule I don't think any games will qualify for the different situational spots that I chart and use to make plays. Not a lot of plays at just 6-2, but hey it's a profit, and any profit is a good thing since most bettors lose (except on the internet, where everybody "wins.")
Time to move on to the NBA and or WNBA (I actually prefer watching WNBA to NBA, strange as that sounds.) I've got some NBA situational spots that are doing really terrible, so, good fades. I'll start using some of them here.
I'm also doing some stuff with the new UFL, but I don't see any interest here. If anyone else starts posting in the "Other Pro Football" forum I'll add to their opinions and give my plays, too. I watched it this weekend, it's not too bad. It does have one good thing going for it - there's no other football for a couple months.
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