31-24 ATS (+7.53)8-12 ML (+3.16)
11-9 TOTALS (+.06)
2-7 PARLAY (-1.20)
0-2 TEASE (-3.7)
OVERALL +5.85 UNITS
Longwood Lancers 1H +19.5(+110) *1.0/1.10 units
I'll take this bet for that juice. I got the feeling more people are taking this bet instead of laying 35 just because it's a smaller #, hence the books move the juice before they move the line. It doesn't mean those bettors are on the right side(nor am I saying I'm 100% sure that I'm right) But I'm making a value play.
I know that this team is God awful, and the Blue Jays are a very solid looking squad. But in wagering we don't always bet on a team, but we bet on #'s. I have a few angles that might help us get a cover for the first half.
1. Let down spot for Creighton
They just played interstate rival Nebraska, at their house, to a sold out crowd, and won. The game was pretty tight in the first half. In the 2nd half the Blue Jays had 2 good runs and that was that. It was also their first road game. How will they come home after an intense road victory?
Coach was quoted after the Nebraska game "This was our best defensive performance this year" Do they keep up that same defensive effort tonight?
Does Longwood pose any threat? Hell no. I don't think Greg McDermott is going to be pushing them or installing any special sets for the Lancers.
2. Look ahead for Creighton
They will be off for the next 7 days for finals week. Yea maybe some of these guys might start thinking about their studies in what should be a cake walk win. Their priorities can easily be else where, and not in this game.
3. Does Creighton need style points?
I would think not. Is this a game where they really need to come out the gate fast and keep the foot on the gas? They are ranked 10th in the AP poll. If they win the game by 10 to 20 points would that effect how people look at them?
4. Any motivation for the Lancers?
This will be the first time they have faced a team in the top 25 since 2012. We see smaller schools getting up for the big dogs often. The game is on TV. The only other time they were televised was against Stephen F Austin where they lost. They should try to put out a better effort vs a superior team. Trying to avoid complete humiliation is a motive.
Here's what kept me off of the spread for the entire game, and turned me on to the 1H play:
Creighton has been on an absolute terror in the second half of its last five games as its up-tempo style wears down the opposition.
The Bluejays have outscored teams just 179-170 in the first half of games vs. Ole Miss, Loyola (Md.), Buffalo, Akron and Nebraska but crushed those same foes by a combined 241-163 after intermission.
My system with out SOS has Creighton winning the 1H by 8.3
With SOS I got em winning by 19.3
But spreads get tricky when they are so high...I could be way off for the better or worse. All I know is that people betting on the Blue Jays gave me favorable juice, and with the angles above I feel like it's worth a 1 unit risk.
I'm not calling for an upset, just a cover. I'll take the points here.
BOLTA
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