bb play

2012 7-6 (+1415)
2011 5-3 (+460)
2010 10-7 (+2480)
2009 3-4 (-1010)
2008 13-12 (-170)
2007 10-10-1 (+300)
2006 12-5-1 (+3175)
2005 13-8
2004 10-9
2003 10-1-1

I stabbed my self with dull butter knife after the last game. Hawaii killed the boards and led pretty much the entire game as capped against Fresno State. Up by 4 (spread 5), Hawaii has the ball with a few seconds left and inbounds the ball to their All WAC SG Zane Johnson. Things are looking great. In a fit of panic, Zane flips the ball into the air to avoid going out of bounds instead of calling time out. Game ends....

Hawaii +9 550 to win 500
Hawaii ML +TBA 100 to win TBA

- Deceiving Record. Montana could be the most fraudulent 19 win team in the Nation. Their schedule is ranked #271. Check their schedule: Montana has not beaten a team with a winning record in almost three months! Last 8 games? 9-16 Sacramento State (twice), 8-17 North Colorado (twice), 9-16 Idaho State, 11-15 Montana State, etc.......ALL BIG SKY teams with HUGE losing records. Montana has only 3 wins the entire year against winning teams (Utah VALLEY, LBSU, and Idaho). You can make the argument that if Hawaii played the same schedule they would be 22-3.


- Since December 6, 2011, Hawaii has played 19 games and gone 13-6. How many of those games has Hawaii lost by 10 or more? ZERO. Hawaii has handled the likes of Clemson, Xavier, NMST, and hung with Nevada, UNLV, and Utah State (on the road, no less). Montana would easily be 9-10 or worse if they played the same schedule as Hawaii instead of horrific Big Sky teams.


- Hawaii is +3 in rebounds to Montana's -3 per game. Hawaii, like they do in most games having the #1 Center in the WAC (Vander Joaquim 15ppg/10rpg/2bpg), should win the boards.


- Hawaii is an excellent shooting team, and amazingly, one of the TOP ROAD shooting teams in the Nation at 47.2% (explains why Hawaii rarely gets blown out, even on the road).

Small Play. This is a value play, I believe the line is too high. People look at Montana's home court record and think of Hawaii's inability to travel (though not true this year)......... I am slightly hesitant to go more as I question the confines of Montana and their home court advantage, it appears Utah State like.....

Hawaii's players tend to do dumb things and have mental lapses, but no one questions how hard they play. Also, the talent differential will be huge with Hawaii way ahead of Montana.

As always, cap for yourself, ride or fade, just win money.

I agree 100%.

Any thoughts on the total of 140.5? Its the 2nd highest total of any Montana game this year. Like you said, hawaii should limit 2nd chance points and being on the road is always rough. Leaning under in this one......

Quote Originally Posted by Andy_Dufresne:

Hawaiiguy

I must say, I follow your post RELIGIOUSLY and due to your last write-up vs Fresno I elected to make my biggest play of the year... 20 units on the Hawaii ML. I'm very sorry to hear that the late game foolishness cost you but as for me, and many others i'm sure, you enstilled enough hope for many to make the right call on the ML.... Keep doing what you do brother, owe you big time 

Train69, I know I mentioned this last couple of years, but I do read for your plays all the time.  One of a very few cappers i look for on covers.  As far as the total, gun to my head, under as well.....Montana seems to be putting up their high point totals against real bad teams.  Also, being a Bracket Buster, they may feel each other out quite a bit, especially with both sides having a big center......  gl bud