I got to my bracket lab early this morning to start on some research. I'm 'working' today, but as I've done every year since high school will be off Thursday and Friday, watching games at a local watering hole all day and night. Some might be wondering how I got off from high school every year, but let's just say, school wasn't an option, so I did what was needed to be in front of a TV.
I've already stumbled upon some advanced numbers that I wanted to share and something I will be utilizing in my analysis and ultimate picks for the Final Four.
Disclaimer: This isn't gospel, it's merely statistical analysis on what has happened in the past. With all statistics, there are outliers, and this year might be ripe for extreme outliers.
Team Efficiency Results
Since 2007, there have been nine NCAA Tournaments, which calculates out to 36 total participants in the Final Fours. Of these 36 teams, 32 were in the top 50 for both offensive and defensive efficiency. Of the four 'outliers', two were #1 ranked in one of the categories (outside the top 50 in the other) and one was #2 ranked in one of the categories (again, outside the top 50 in the other). The fourth outlier team was VCU in 2011 who ranked 25th and 84th in offensive and defensive efficiency respectively.
So, those are the historic numbers, but who does that spotlight in this years field. Looking at solely teams in both, the breakdown by region is as follows:
South : Kansas, Villanova, Miami, California, Maryland, Arizona, Iowa and Vanderbilt
This region is stacked with teams who have balanced efficiency. The interesting one, for me, is Vanderbilt. This region doesn't offer much in the way of picking one team over another to advance, but when it comes down to betting individual games, it sure feels like grabbing the underdog getting points might be a smart strategy. Specific to the bracket, there is some opportunity to back a mid-level seeded team while everyone else is going chalk
West : Oregon, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Texas
The top three seeds fall within the top 50 and a somewhat surprising one in Texas, which stands out where # 4 and # 5 seeds Duke and Baylor miss the mark. If you want a dark horse, Texas might be a good one; if you want some upset options, Yale and UNCW also might be good ones.
East : UNC, Xavier and West Virginia
It seems every year there is at least one bracket that goes to form and maybe this year that's the East. More on Kentucky in a moment, but beware Indiana and Notre Dame, you have a target on your back as a top seed who might be ripe to be sent home early
Midwest : Virginia, Michigan State and Purdue
Again, much like the East, this one could be chalk, but it also highlights potential vulnerable teams in Utah and Iowa State.
As noted initially, there were teams, in past years, that weren't in the top 50 for both efficiency numbers. I took a look at teams who were in the top 10 on either side of the efficiency stats and produced the following:
Top 10 Defense : Wichita State and Cincinnati
Top 10 Offense : Kentucky and Iowa State
I was surprised to see how many teams over the last nine years were top 50 in both efficiency numbers. As you'd expect, the top seeds are all there, but it does highlight some options of lower seeds how might make some noise and higher seeds who might produce a dud. In total, including the outliers, there are 22 teams within a 68 team field.
Again, history might carry this forward, but as with anything statistical, there is randomness. Considering the season we've seen to date, randomness wouldn't be a total shock, but as you look through the matchups, dig into the efficiency numbers and you may find some glaring discrepancies between teams that might create opportunity in your bracket picking and in your individual game betting.
I'm going to post a thread on each region with some thoughts.. I do it mostly to get my ideas and research on paper, but hope it helps others as well, even if that is to use as fade material.
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