I know many like myself have models they work with. So here's my question :
How do you work with pace from two opposing teams, once you have your number for each?
Many experts will take the two teams' numbers and compare with the league average, either additively (e.g. kenpom) or multiplicatively (others). For example , if Team A has a pace of 80 and Team B 70, and the league average is 60, some would say the predicted game pace would be the sum of the differences (60+20+10)=90..or alternatively 80*70/60 = 93.33.
I have some issues with this. If the Ants take 15 seconds a possession, and the Bees 20, (league average is 10) then the Ants poss per min is 4, and the Bees 3. On average, depending on who had the ball first, the poss per min for both would be somewhere between 3.33 and 3.5. But if I use the logic above, the predicted pace would be 2.4 (additive) or 2 (multiplicative) which seems wrong. A simple average of the two would make more sense.
I know I rambled on, but I thought it would be a good convo to start. Hope to hear some good input.
FMF
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hey all :
I know many like myself have models they work with. So here's my question :
How do you work with pace from two opposing teams, once you have your number for each?
Many experts will take the two teams' numbers and compare with the league average, either additively (e.g. kenpom) or multiplicatively (others). For example , if Team A has a pace of 80 and Team B 70, and the league average is 60, some would say the predicted game pace would be the sum of the differences (60+20+10)=90..or alternatively 80*70/60 = 93.33.
I have some issues with this. If the Ants take 15 seconds a possession, and the Bees 20, (league average is 10) then the Ants poss per min is 4, and the Bees 3. On average, depending on who had the ball first, the poss per min for both would be somewhere between 3.33 and 3.5. But if I use the logic above, the predicted pace would be 2.4 (additive) or 2 (multiplicative) which seems wrong. A simple average of the two would make more sense.
I know I rambled on, but I thought it would be a good convo to start. Hope to hear some good input.
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