I've been rolling for the last week and thought i'd share. All my picks are based on looking at the opening line and key drivers (what I consider-keydrivers) and then following patterns based on previous scenarios and results. More detail look below - today:
Mich. - 4, Pitt -9, Fsu + 13, BC + 5, Wisc. - 14.5, Loymd F/h, Iona F/h,
I know the lines might have adjusted slightly - don't buy points - go with it.
good luck all.
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Looking at data and following patterns that incorporate the line makers opening line - for example:
JMU 9.7 11.6 184 252 45.4%
5 Del. 10.4 11.4 145 126 40.4
What we have here is Deleware opens up as a 5 pt favorite (donbest.com). Second, you can tell a lot about a team based on assists to turnovers - in this case both teams have negative assists to turnovers - 9.7 - 11.6 (checkout statfox .com). Next you have to consider each teams power rankings - on paper jmu is worst compared to deleware 184 to 145 (sagarin rankings). You also have to look at Schedule strength - 252 to 126. Clearly on paper deleware is better. Look at shooting percentage defense and once again deleware is better at 40.4 vice jmu' 45.4. Once again on paper Deleware should crush - however, it doesn't work that way (what I have found in my years doing this) because non of us know for sure what data and the exact weight oddsmakers give to each component to come up with the line. My data reflects what I consider the key drivers - therefore, I record results and the scenarios and have developed trends to follow. This happens to be a game I love and will take JMU with the points - I also think they can win this game su possibly. It takes work and I would suggest don't always go against the logical choice. For example, Wichita st should come out on top based on my data. good luck
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