I have to first give props to oddsmakers for this years tournament. Not only has it been challenging, but so many of the spreads have been almost dead on. As I do this for a living I can attest to this not having been the case in previous years. I will say, those games that have been lopsided have mostly involved the top teams (UCONN is on another level definitely one of the finalists) and those teams have also played to a lot of OVERS. In fact, the NCCA Tournament has become devoid of defense outside of those lock down defensive type teams, of which few are left.
MARQUETTE (-7): I UNLOADED on UCONN last night though I didn't post it. Very similar thinking as I have here. Marquette, despite having some closer games than UCONN, were one of the top rated teams before the season began. The only reason they are not a #1 seed is because their star and Wooden Award nominee, Tyler Kolek, hadn't been playing due to injury and the team took an understandable nosedive. Since he's returned, he's averaged 19.5 ppg and 11 assists while shooting over 60%. And it's not like this is some sort of aberration, this is what he's done in the past and why he was a Wooden Award Finalist. All that said, NC State has been playing incredible basketball. Part of me wants to just root them on but the 7 points is a very very dicey number as it pretty much says FT's at the end of the game. Marquette has been good from the line but I imagine it would be Kolek handling the ball most and getting to the line at the end of the game. Both teams here are very well matched, I just think Marquette has been there before and the steam will run out on NCSU.
OVER 155 (GONZAGA/PURDUE): Both teams are rolling and scoring more or less at will. Purdue likes to get it up the floor quickly and Edey is just a monster. But Gonzaga also has some size to challenge him and, while I think he gets his points, I think Purdue will have to shoot 3's very well tonight (which they usually do at better than 40%) to get past Gonzaga. I do like Gonzaga and the points but as stated above, the 5-7 range usually depends on FT's. I just can't see Purdue stopping Gonzaga as they are shooting over 50% from the field. Add all that up and that the tournament has become in some games a track meet, and I think this stinks of an OVER. I'm not expecting both teams to get into the 90's but given how evenly matched the two squads really are, the solid coaching on the sidelines, and the amount of players who can hit buckets, I see a very close game that also could rely on FT's, pushing this over the number.
Hoping this helps. I wasn't very good in the conference tournaments but had an awesome year. I do very much like Houston tonight but expect that game to be very close so those 4.5 points scare me a bit, hence my laying off. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all....