Another 3-2 night. Lesson learned regarding Akron...be wary betting against quality conference teams coming off embarrassing losses @ home. Akron has won the MAC conference title 7 times, and they were focused last night. If I had bought the best line on UMASS, I would've covered, but then again, risking to buy a team late (I buy overnight) can be risky as well. On to the next!
NEOM -1.5
It was hard to gauge these teams in term of line value because there's little information and no common opponents but from a pure power ranking perspective NEOM should be favored about 4 pts. DEN has played poor on the road and their strengths are handling the ball and the 3pt shot. NEOM by contrast ranks 85th in opp ASST/TOV and 113th in opp 3P/G. Both teams are poor in rebounding which favors NEOM as they like to push the pace and a more effective shooting squad.
WMU +5
KENT has a dominate history @ home, especially against WMU, but this is not and ideal spot for them. WMU off a disappointing loss @ home versus arguably the worst team in the MAC; a game in which they had a 15 point lead and coughed up. I have WMU rated a hair better than KENT, KENT's home advantage is almost negligible, while WMU has proven to be tough on the road. KENT is also a team that heavily depends on the ball (ranked 70th in % of pts from 3pt), while WMU is 65th in 3pt% allowed. WMU will have to be careful of protecting the ball, something in which KENT can exploit, but following the 2 straight losses in which they've given up 30+ TOV, I expect them to work on this issue.
USM -5
It's about time this line moved, I was getting worried it would drop! ODU is playing the best basketball of the season, but they will simply be overmatched in this contest and come back to earth. I see tremendous line value with USM and I believe ODU's current streak has provided it. ODU's best guard is coming off an ankle injury and I don't expect him to be 100%.
PSU -4
Great spot for PSU catching NEB off a huge upset. A bit of a difference between Vegas' "opinion" and most power ratings. If you agree with Vegas, PSU should be about a 6 pt fav, according to most PR's the line should be closer -2.5 or so. I've been betting against PSU for most of the season, but this is simply a good spot to back them. They need a BIG 10 win, and what better chance versus one of the weaker teams in the conference who are overrated coming off the big win. Not a whole lot of matchup angles on this, but there is definitely line value and a great spot for the lions.
. 2-1-1 so far. Need ASU to keep myself in the winning column
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