What do the "CUSE....MARYLAND...SAGARIN have in common..following this Power Rating for years one most be aware of his numbers. We've a number SYRACUSE--3-OR 4....now here's were it gets dicey to say the least. Syracuse number is 88.89 Adding Terp's number 81.33 and home court advantage 3.34....makes Terps NUMBER....84.67..Bingo....CUSE BY....4.22. Sweat game need to be 2 points or more away to make a play. Math not hard here no need to be a Math Wizard. Believe it or not books look at this power rating and numbers don't lie...go and kill yourself if you think this is "KRAP".....!
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What do the "CUSE....MARYLAND...SAGARIN have in common..following this Power Rating for years one most be aware of his numbers. We've a number SYRACUSE--3-OR 4....now here's were it gets dicey to say the least. Syracuse number is 88.89 Adding Terp's number 81.33 and home court advantage 3.34....makes Terps NUMBER....84.67..Bingo....CUSE BY....4.22. Sweat game need to be 2 points or more away to make a play. Math not hard here no need to be a Math Wizard. Believe it or not books look at this power rating and numbers don't lie...go and kill yourself if you think this is "KRAP".....!
Yep, these predictive tools are quite useful, and trend pretty well with actual realized game results. Cheong actually keeps tally of the predicte vs. realized margin of victory for several rating systems, and they all have a line of fit close to y = x (i.e. these methods predict margins pretty well) with a standard deviation around them of about 8 to 8.5, so there is room for noise.
Psychological factors, form, and injuries/suspensions might sway the movement of these predictions just a bit...but I don't see too much here to sway it away from the predicted values.
People who say this should be a line of Syracuse by 6-7 should start consulting these ranking sources more.
I've developed a few models that has Syracuse favored on average by 1.8 to 3.6, so it's a no play for me if betting against the spread.
By the way, Sagarin himself says his "predictor" is better for predicting margins. Of his four ratings, I've validated this to be true as his best predictor by plotting his projected rankings against actual margins. So Syracuse is 87.83, Maryland 81.88. Add 3.13 to Maryland's score and subtract from Syracuse and you get a margin of victory of 2.82 for Syracuse.
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Yep, these predictive tools are quite useful, and trend pretty well with actual realized game results. Cheong actually keeps tally of the predicte vs. realized margin of victory for several rating systems, and they all have a line of fit close to y = x (i.e. these methods predict margins pretty well) with a standard deviation around them of about 8 to 8.5, so there is room for noise.
Psychological factors, form, and injuries/suspensions might sway the movement of these predictions just a bit...but I don't see too much here to sway it away from the predicted values.
People who say this should be a line of Syracuse by 6-7 should start consulting these ranking sources more.
I've developed a few models that has Syracuse favored on average by 1.8 to 3.6, so it's a no play for me if betting against the spread.
By the way, Sagarin himself says his "predictor" is better for predicting margins. Of his four ratings, I've validated this to be true as his best predictor by plotting his projected rankings against actual margins. So Syracuse is 87.83, Maryland 81.88. Add 3.13 to Maryland's score and subtract from Syracuse and you get a margin of victory of 2.82 for Syracuse.
Thanks for your insight about ratings and what they mean in handicapping. Its not all bluff and shuck my team is better then your team. A great friend of mine swore about power ratings and the true value in using them. He drove the bookies nuts with his knowledge. He told me never but never go against a number when its less then two away from number. Many a times I would say your crazy! Why I read all the krap about teams and inside info stuff. Today with all this internet handicapping it still holds water. I remember we had a party over beating a local Book hitting 18 out of 20 games. That stat is in the vault of busted bookies. Those were the days before all this nonsense. He passed away at a young age and took his master of the System to his grave...may you rest in peace my friend!
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Thanks for your insight about ratings and what they mean in handicapping. Its not all bluff and shuck my team is better then your team. A great friend of mine swore about power ratings and the true value in using them. He drove the bookies nuts with his knowledge. He told me never but never go against a number when its less then two away from number. Many a times I would say your crazy! Why I read all the krap about teams and inside info stuff. Today with all this internet handicapping it still holds water. I remember we had a party over beating a local Book hitting 18 out of 20 games. That stat is in the vault of busted bookies. Those were the days before all this nonsense. He passed away at a young age and took his master of the System to his grave...may you rest in peace my friend!
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