Posted:
#1
Season: 20-20-2 (-2 Units)
Northern Iowa -2.5 (1.1 to win 1) - A rough 1-2 start for Northern Iowa this year. The two losses however came on the road against Ohio and George Mason who are both roughly top 100 teams, so nothing to be terribly ashamed of. Jacobson has built Northern Iowa into one of the best mid majors in the nation as they've won 20 games or more in 5 straight seasons. This isn't one of his best teams, but I still see them as being good enough to win 18 to 20 games or so, including this one. Style wise it's the same Northern Iowa you've seen for years, slow it down, grind it out, and out execute you. Loyola Marymount is the polar opposite, they want to run as much as possible, but the Panthers just simply won't allow it. This game won't be as slow as Northern Iowa likes, but it'll be much slower than what LMU wants and is accustomed to. The Lions are 4-0 yes, but they haven't really played anyone and this will be a steep rise in competition. Sets up as a perfect spot for LMU to come back to earth a bit, and Northern Iowa to begin to get things back on track.
Michigan State -15 (1.1 to win 1) - I really think we see a Sparty beat down here. They've come out flat in their last 2 games and I think Izzo has probably put these guys through the grinder the past few days. Against Columbia last week they never woke up, and were flat for the full 40. The result was a narrow win in a game that was close for about 39 minutes. Then the follow up was them being flat for about 31 minutes against Portland earlier this week before finally pulling away a bit late. You know a guy like Izzo isn't happy about that. I think we see a focused effort from the opening tip tomorrow and that Sparty just takes the Hokies to the woodshed. As far as VT goes, I'm still not buying in. Yes they are 3-1, but they just aren't that good. The win over WVU was somewhat impressive, but in my opinion they played over their head in that one. The other 3 games were a home loss against USC Upstate and wins over 2 junk teams. Talent wise they'll be in way over their heads here, and if you factor in that Sparty is due to play a focused 40 this one could get ugly.
Bradley +16.5 (1.1 to win 1) - Going with the sandwich spot angle here for Arizona State. They just came off a nice road win over UNLV and have Marquette coming to town on Monday. Not sure how much we get from them in this one. Bradley isn't anything amazing, but they aren't pushovers either. They won 18 games last year and likely will win around that same amount this year. One thing Bradley has done very well this year is defend the 3 point line. Opponents are only shooting 22% from 3 against the Braves this year. Granted their opponents haven't been world beaters, 22% is still 22% and it's impressive. ASU fills it up at about 40% from 3 so Bradley's ability to control the Sun Devils from 3 very likely will determine who covers this one. One other fact that can't be overlooked with these new rules is that Bradley can shoot FT's. As a team they are around 75% on the year, which is pretty damn solid. In a game like this as a big dog they'll need all the free points they can get, and for the most part they should be able to knock them down. Combining the nice FT%, the solid 3 point defense, and the possible sluggish showing from ASU due to the sandwich spot and i've got enough to take my chances with 16.5 points.
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