Posted:
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YTD Posted: 74-63-8
Yesterday: 0-4-1
Yesterday was, in a word, brutal. GA State pulled within 5 at Old Dominion with 2:30 to play and managed to lose by 17 in a snails-paced game. San Jose State choked away a 21-point halftime lead and won by 4. Shit happens, so it's time to move on.
First, I see a fair amount of chatter regarding the Xavier/St. Joe's game, and rightfully so. I'm a Junior at SJU and follow the team very closely. I'm friends with a few of the guys on the team, which is helpful for betting on/against them. Tonight's game has the feel of a "all the stars aligning' type of night." I've been a huge critic of Phil Martelli and still wouldn't mind seeing him replaced, but he's managed to hold this thing together and the team, the 11th youngest in Division 1, is playing with exponentially more confidence than at any point in the season having won two straight A-10 games. UMASS is a decent team and Fordham is awful, wins are wins for extremely young teams and this squad is starting to feel like it can play with anyone. They're battle tested at this point, having lost by 12 or less @Villanova, Minnesota, @ Dayton, and @ Richmond.
At 7-17 and 2-8 in the Atlantic Ten, it would appear on paper that the Hawks aren't playing for much. But that is actually quite far from the truth. The top 12 teams qualify for the conference tournament and the Hawks are currently tied with Charlotte for the final spot, so there's plenty at stake in this game and the rest of the season.
Everyone on Hawk Hill knew this was going to be a long season. The entire recruiting class of 2008, which offered little production in its first two seasons, transferred out for various reasons. In the long run, this will prove to be a major blessing but it has created a severe void in terms of experience. Luckily, the class brought in to replace them is simply outstanding. Martelli somehow managed to secure a Top 25 recruiting class (according to several outlets) including C.J. Aiken (MaxPreps #18 overall) who is currently the nation's #2 shot blocker, and Langston Galloway, another Top 150 prospect who will likely win Atlantic Ten Rookie of the Year honors. Additionally, he pulled Ronald Roberts away from St. John's after Norm Roberts was fired and picked up SEC football recruit Patrick Swilling at the signing deadline.
There are 5 freshmen in the Hawks' standard 8-man rotation. The leading scorer is scrawny yet ultra-quick sophomore Carl Jones, who averages 18 a game at 5'10 and 155 pounds. He hurt his ankle a few games back and missed the win against UMASS. He played against Fordham on Sunday but was visibly injured. I talked to Monday night and said he'll be giving it a go against Xavier but that it's still causing him some pain. A few weeks ago, this would have presented a major connondrum for the Hawks, but Senior guard Charoy Bentley, an excellent defender, has miraculously stepped into fill the void. Bentley played sparingly in his first 3 seasons and was an offensive liability. But he's discovered some type of magical revival in the second half of his senior season, providing the senior leadership this youthful team sorely needed from the point guard position. Jones is a terrific scorer and shooter, but he's not a natural point guard like Bentley is.
Perhaps the biggest difference, however, has been Langston Galloway. The 6'2, 200 lb. guard from Louisiana has the look of a future Hawk icon. He's scored 50 points in the past two games and put the team on his back against UMASS. He's also an excellent defender and free throw shooter (89%).
Now, there's one big problem tonight:
-Size
Despite being the nation's #2 shot blocker, 6'9 freshman C.J. Aiken is skinny. Really skinny. He gets pushed around by bigger and more experienced players underneath but survives due to an uncanny and natural ability to time shots. He'll be in some trouble tonight, however, against Xavier 7-footer Kenny Frease, who has emerged this year as a legitimate low-post threat. St. Joe's has its own 7-footer in Junior Todd O'Brien, but he's been hampered by injuries and isn't likely to play tonight. Ronald Roberts, a 6'7 freshman forward originally committed to St. John's, is outstanding rebounder and insane leaper, but he's really raw and could struggle against Frease and Jamel McLean. Idris Hilliard, a 6'7, 230 lb. senior forward, will be key for the Hawks tonight defensively and on the glass. This is one of several reasons why I'm told SJU will be in a zone for most of the game. They're also planning on deploying a "Box-and-1" type defense on the explosive Holloway with Bentley and Galloway serving as the primary defenders. I've never seen them play this defense before so I'm not quite sure what to expect from it.
Another issue is that SJU struggles to guard the 3-point line in its man-to-man-defense. Xavier has three excellent shooters in Tu Holloway, Mark Lyons, and Dante Jackson. They do a much better job reaching the shooters when they play zone, which also allows Aiken to hang out in the middle of the lane and swat away shots. The zone should help this problem somewhat tonight, but Xavier is going to have to be cold from distance if SJU is going to pull off this upset.
As far as the crowds and such, Hagan Arena is going to be completely sold out. SJU is a basketball crazy school and the fan base has stuck by the team through the past two awful seasons. Not many 7-17 teams can count on a near-full or entirely full arena for their home games, so you know the players will be going all-out tonight. At full throat, Hagan is arguably the toughest venue in the conference because of how close the fans are to the floor and the acoustics of the building. Additionally, this is a bad spot for Xavier. They're cruising along at 9-1 in the A-10 having just beaten Duquesne on the road for sole possession of the conference lead. 2-8 SJU is hardly going to worry the Muskies.
The line movement in this game is strange as well. It seems as if everyone is on Xavier yet the line has fallen from 9 to 7.5. Not sure what that means, but it's definitely strange. All I'm hoping for tonight is a tight game in which the Baby Hawks put a scare into the Muskies and give the fan base continued reason for optimism. If I were to recommend a play, it would be on the Under 135.5
Please feel free to ask any questions. Obviously I like this team and the school but am extremely critical of them as well so you will you get an honest answer or opinion. Picks to follow shortly.
Yesterday: 0-4-1
Yesterday was, in a word, brutal. GA State pulled within 5 at Old Dominion with 2:30 to play and managed to lose by 17 in a snails-paced game. San Jose State choked away a 21-point halftime lead and won by 4. Shit happens, so it's time to move on.
First, I see a fair amount of chatter regarding the Xavier/St. Joe's game, and rightfully so. I'm a Junior at SJU and follow the team very closely. I'm friends with a few of the guys on the team, which is helpful for betting on/against them. Tonight's game has the feel of a "all the stars aligning' type of night." I've been a huge critic of Phil Martelli and still wouldn't mind seeing him replaced, but he's managed to hold this thing together and the team, the 11th youngest in Division 1, is playing with exponentially more confidence than at any point in the season having won two straight A-10 games. UMASS is a decent team and Fordham is awful, wins are wins for extremely young teams and this squad is starting to feel like it can play with anyone. They're battle tested at this point, having lost by 12 or less @Villanova, Minnesota, @ Dayton, and @ Richmond.
At 7-17 and 2-8 in the Atlantic Ten, it would appear on paper that the Hawks aren't playing for much. But that is actually quite far from the truth. The top 12 teams qualify for the conference tournament and the Hawks are currently tied with Charlotte for the final spot, so there's plenty at stake in this game and the rest of the season.
Everyone on Hawk Hill knew this was going to be a long season. The entire recruiting class of 2008, which offered little production in its first two seasons, transferred out for various reasons. In the long run, this will prove to be a major blessing but it has created a severe void in terms of experience. Luckily, the class brought in to replace them is simply outstanding. Martelli somehow managed to secure a Top 25 recruiting class (according to several outlets) including C.J. Aiken (MaxPreps #18 overall) who is currently the nation's #2 shot blocker, and Langston Galloway, another Top 150 prospect who will likely win Atlantic Ten Rookie of the Year honors. Additionally, he pulled Ronald Roberts away from St. John's after Norm Roberts was fired and picked up SEC football recruit Patrick Swilling at the signing deadline.
There are 5 freshmen in the Hawks' standard 8-man rotation. The leading scorer is scrawny yet ultra-quick sophomore Carl Jones, who averages 18 a game at 5'10 and 155 pounds. He hurt his ankle a few games back and missed the win against UMASS. He played against Fordham on Sunday but was visibly injured. I talked to Monday night and said he'll be giving it a go against Xavier but that it's still causing him some pain. A few weeks ago, this would have presented a major connondrum for the Hawks, but Senior guard Charoy Bentley, an excellent defender, has miraculously stepped into fill the void. Bentley played sparingly in his first 3 seasons and was an offensive liability. But he's discovered some type of magical revival in the second half of his senior season, providing the senior leadership this youthful team sorely needed from the point guard position. Jones is a terrific scorer and shooter, but he's not a natural point guard like Bentley is.
Perhaps the biggest difference, however, has been Langston Galloway. The 6'2, 200 lb. guard from Louisiana has the look of a future Hawk icon. He's scored 50 points in the past two games and put the team on his back against UMASS. He's also an excellent defender and free throw shooter (89%).
Now, there's one big problem tonight:
-Size
Despite being the nation's #2 shot blocker, 6'9 freshman C.J. Aiken is skinny. Really skinny. He gets pushed around by bigger and more experienced players underneath but survives due to an uncanny and natural ability to time shots. He'll be in some trouble tonight, however, against Xavier 7-footer Kenny Frease, who has emerged this year as a legitimate low-post threat. St. Joe's has its own 7-footer in Junior Todd O'Brien, but he's been hampered by injuries and isn't likely to play tonight. Ronald Roberts, a 6'7 freshman forward originally committed to St. John's, is outstanding rebounder and insane leaper, but he's really raw and could struggle against Frease and Jamel McLean. Idris Hilliard, a 6'7, 230 lb. senior forward, will be key for the Hawks tonight defensively and on the glass. This is one of several reasons why I'm told SJU will be in a zone for most of the game. They're also planning on deploying a "Box-and-1" type defense on the explosive Holloway with Bentley and Galloway serving as the primary defenders. I've never seen them play this defense before so I'm not quite sure what to expect from it.
Another issue is that SJU struggles to guard the 3-point line in its man-to-man-defense. Xavier has three excellent shooters in Tu Holloway, Mark Lyons, and Dante Jackson. They do a much better job reaching the shooters when they play zone, which also allows Aiken to hang out in the middle of the lane and swat away shots. The zone should help this problem somewhat tonight, but Xavier is going to have to be cold from distance if SJU is going to pull off this upset.
As far as the crowds and such, Hagan Arena is going to be completely sold out. SJU is a basketball crazy school and the fan base has stuck by the team through the past two awful seasons. Not many 7-17 teams can count on a near-full or entirely full arena for their home games, so you know the players will be going all-out tonight. At full throat, Hagan is arguably the toughest venue in the conference because of how close the fans are to the floor and the acoustics of the building. Additionally, this is a bad spot for Xavier. They're cruising along at 9-1 in the A-10 having just beaten Duquesne on the road for sole possession of the conference lead. 2-8 SJU is hardly going to worry the Muskies.
The line movement in this game is strange as well. It seems as if everyone is on Xavier yet the line has fallen from 9 to 7.5. Not sure what that means, but it's definitely strange. All I'm hoping for tonight is a tight game in which the Baby Hawks put a scare into the Muskies and give the fan base continued reason for optimism. If I were to recommend a play, it would be on the Under 135.5
Please feel free to ask any questions. Obviously I like this team and the school but am extremely critical of them as well so you will you get an honest answer or opinion. Picks to follow shortly.
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