Early Saturday Discussion

Never too early to start analyzing some of the better spots on Saturday's mega cards. Feel free to chime in with any thoughts or comments about a game that is or is not listed on here. Remember, these are just my guesses about where the lines will open so read carefully...

Saint Louis +12 @ Richmond
Spiders are stellar three-point shooters (41.3%, #6 nation) and rely on the long-distance shot for a large portion of their offense. Usually, this is a formula for success, but Saint Louis presents as interesting challenge with the way it plays defense. The Billikens allow the fewest number of points and attempts via the 3-ball of any team in the country. Richmond can score in other ways via their inverted Princeton offense, but this is the type of game that from a matchup standpoint is worth a really long, hard look. Plus, Richmond plays at Temple on Thursday and is far from fool-proof at home having lost to Bucknell and Rhode Island.

North Carolina @ Clemson -1
I really do think Clemson will be favored in this one given its track record at home and the way they've played as of late as one of the more under-the-radar teams in the country. This is an outstanding defensive ballclub that grinds teams out and forces opponents into halfcourt games. Of course, that's seemingly the only way to stop UNC these days as the Heels are putting up some major numbers offensively. Clemson played a little too fast in the first meeting in Chapel Hill a few weeks back but is unlikely to make the same mistake twice. UNC is coming off of its most emotional game of the season and now ventures into one of the ACC's toughest and loudest venues to take on a team it beat by double-digits. Public perception of the Heels is the highest it's been in probably two years, so if Clemson is in fact favored this might be my biggest play of the day.

Tennessee +7 @ Florida
The Vols are starting to slip despite Pearl's return to the sidelines, but this game presents their best opportunity for a marquee win until the March 6 game in Knoxville against Kentucky. Florida beat Tennessee in OT about a month ago to drop the Vols to 0-2 in the SEC. Now, Tennessee is 5-4 but has lost two in a row to elite conference teams, while Florida has rattled off three big wins in succession, knocking off Vandy in OT, Kentucky in a thriller, and South Carolina on the road in a payback game. At 19-5, 8-2, they're sitting pretty atop the SEC East. Motivation Edge? Tennessee. I think Pearl lights a fire under their asses and the Vols steal a big one in Gainesville.

Rice +12 @ UAB
The Blazers just thumped a sold Marshall team on the road and have a little payback game with Memphis on Wednesday. In between, they will likely be double-digit favorites at home against Rice, who has had a week off since a home loss to UTEP. Both of these teams play at crawling speeds (319 v. 291), meaning possessions will be at a premium. UAB will likely need optimum focus to cover a number of this sort against a hungry Rice team that needs a win really, really badly. Not a guaranteed play for me, but certainly worth a long look.

UNC-Greensboro +21 @ Charleston
C of C is straight-up rolling lately, throttling two of the SOCON's better teams (Wofford and Furman) by a combined 44 points in back-to-back games. Then, they went on the road in what could have been a let-down spot at Elon and blasted the Phoenix away in the second half, winning by 18. Now, they welcome in 5-18 UNC-Greensboro, hardly a cause for concern. But the Spartans have been one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball betting over the last month or so as their brutal non-conference schedule has been paying dividends. This is a great spot for Charleston to stop and exhale before the final push of the regular season. Greensboro is not exhaling, however, having run its SOCON record to a quite respectable 5-4 with an eye towards making hay in the conference tournament. Also, Charleston lost its only post threat, Jeremy Simmons to an arm injury and now has no frontcourt depth. Will it matter? Maybe not, because Andrew Goudelock can drop 35 in the blink of an eye. But this is a value game and the Spartans are going to be bringing their best effort.

Baylor +11.5 @ Texas
I think the Bears may finally be starting to wake up and play more to their potential. Granted, they lack a true point guard and can go through some brutal defensive droughts, but the sense of urgency may have finally clicked in as they realize an NCAA bid is not a guarantee by any stretch. Texas has just looked outstanding in the last month and a half and hasn't even been in a tight game since the January 8 loss to UCONN. They've had success largely by pushing teams around inside, but that's going to be a tall task against Baylor. Neither team has much depth to speak of so foul trouble could play a big role, as could free throws, which I maintain will eventually be the demise of the Longhorns at some point in the tournament.

Other Games I Like:
Virginia +10 @ Florida State
SMU +11 @ UTEP
Oklahoma State @ Nebraska -6
Wright State +6 @ Valparaiso
Fresno State @ Utah State -15
James Madison +11.5 @ George Mason
Texas A & M -5 @ Texas Tech

ur a big asset to this forum,,im gonna keep my eye out on these games.GL..

good luck jfen!

would love to see clemson as a small fav tomorrow as well @littlejohn - very solid play

on a side note..NBAFAN88...who is the shania twain look a like in your avatar??

Best case scenario is Clemson -2 or -3 but that might be a tad high. Even at a PK though UNC will attract a huge portion of the bets so Clemson should be a nice play regardless.

I will be looking hard at Bucky tomorrow.  Purdue Pride wrote some great stuff about it in his thread, and I agree with him.  They're even holding Jordan Taylor out of practice to make sure he's rested after playing 44 of 45 minutes on Wednesday. 

Alright, pretty close on everything for the most part. I'm hoping 5Dimes gets these up within a half hour so I can lock some stuff in before heading out. Clemson is definitely a play, as is Virginia. Vols a bit lower than I hoped but I still think they're a solid play with the points and ML as well. Greensboro and Saint Louis are two points short of what I expected but still good plays IMO, particularly Greensboro.

Also love SMU at 12.5 and Vandy at home at -1...Any opinions out there on any of these? Curious to see what others are looking at

First half Florida and Texas?

Haven't started my Saturday research yet. JMU getting 11.5!! Seems too good to be true even though its at GM. BOL

Ummm...no? If I say I like Tennessee and Baylor why would I bet on their opponents?

Clemson is a pk. i'm seeing Tenn only getting 5.5. St Louis only getting +10. Rice only getting 10.5. UNCG only getting 18. Baylor line is correct. Didn't include other games you like. So either you got these extremely early or were just posting guesses. Wasn't sure which but figured I'd let everyone know

Read the first post. I specified that they were guesses and estimates

Locked in on Pitt +3 and Clemson at a PK. That's all for now

taking st louis?

Saint Louis +12 @ Richmond
Spiders are stellar three-point shooters (41.3%, #6 nation) and rely on the long-distance shot for a large portion of their offense. Usually, this is a formula for success, but Saint Louis presents as interesting challenge with the way it plays defense. The Billikens allow the fewest number of points and attempts via the 3-ball of any team in the country. Richmond can score in other ways via their inverted Princeton offense, but this is the type of game that from a matchup standpoint is worth a really long, hard look. Plus, Richmond plays at Temple on Thursday and is far from fool-proof at home having lost to Bucknell and Rhode Island.

Looked at this game too. Richmond is 0-6 in the last 6 at home ATS. I figure they may be due for a cover. Plus the last time they played they held St. Lou to 36!

Jfen - Nice write-ups.