Alright so yesterday I started just doing POD's and sticking to 1-2 bets a night. We hit both as Duke/FSU stayed under by a half point and Duke stayed under the TT of 77.5. That starts the POD's 2-0 and +4 Units.. while also going to 5-1 on the season for team total bets. Not gonna lie, I'm absolutely 100% against the strategy of being up 3 and fouling a team with 6-10 seconds left and putting them on the line. Coach K did it twice and made me wanna break my TV but we caught a break with a couple missed free throws. Will most likely find great value in an O/U or a TT tonight, it will all just depend on when my book posts these lines so I can start looking into them. Lets keep it rollin tonight
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Alright so yesterday I started just doing POD's and sticking to 1-2 bets a night. We hit both as Duke/FSU stayed under by a half point and Duke stayed under the TT of 77.5. That starts the POD's 2-0 and +4 Units.. while also going to 5-1 on the season for team total bets. Not gonna lie, I'm absolutely 100% against the strategy of being up 3 and fouling a team with 6-10 seconds left and putting them on the line. Coach K did it twice and made me wanna break my TV but we caught a break with a couple missed free throws. Will most likely find great value in an O/U or a TT tonight, it will all just depend on when my book posts these lines so I can start looking into them. Lets keep it rollin tonight
Michigan St. is scoring 72.7 PPG this season, 65.8 PPG in the Big10 play, and 70.5 PPG in Big10 road games. Defensively they're giving up 62.1 PPG overall and 66.5 PPG in Big10 road games.
Northwestern is scoring 63.8 PPG this year, 60.6 PPG in the Big10, and 63 PPG in Big10 home games. Defensively they give up 63.6 PPG on the season and 72.5 PPG in Big10 home games.
It is interesting to note that these teams met earlier in January in a game that went into OT. In regulation both squads put up 72 points each. This game was played at Michigan State. They combined for 144 in regulation despite the fact that Michigan State is actually scoring 8 points less per game at home than they are away in Big10 games, while Northwestern scores 5 points less per game away than at home in Big10 contests.
Michigan State has scored 71+ in 3 of their conference 4 road games
Northwestern has given up 68+ in ALL 4 of their conference home games
Since 1997, 14 of their 22 meetings have hit the over, including 6 of 9 played at Northwestern.
Michigan St. may be looking ahead to a big matchup vs. Ohio State but it's hard not to trust these numbers.... Won't make an official play but I would also wager a bet on both TT overs.
MSU/NW Over 127
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POD #1
Michigan St. is scoring 72.7 PPG this season, 65.8 PPG in the Big10 play, and 70.5 PPG in Big10 road games. Defensively they're giving up 62.1 PPG overall and 66.5 PPG in Big10 road games.
Northwestern is scoring 63.8 PPG this year, 60.6 PPG in the Big10, and 63 PPG in Big10 home games. Defensively they give up 63.6 PPG on the season and 72.5 PPG in Big10 home games.
It is interesting to note that these teams met earlier in January in a game that went into OT. In regulation both squads put up 72 points each. This game was played at Michigan State. They combined for 144 in regulation despite the fact that Michigan State is actually scoring 8 points less per game at home than they are away in Big10 games, while Northwestern scores 5 points less per game away than at home in Big10 contests.
Michigan State has scored 71+ in 3 of their conference 4 road games
Northwestern has given up 68+ in ALL 4 of their conference home games
Since 1997, 14 of their 22 meetings have hit the over, including 6 of 9 played at Northwestern.
Michigan St. may be looking ahead to a big matchup vs. Ohio State but it's hard not to trust these numbers.... Won't make an official play but I would also wager a bet on both TT overs.
Memphis is scoring 67.6 PPG this season, 66.4 PPG in AAC games, and 58.7 PPG in AAC road games.
East Carolina defensively is giving up 65.5 PPG on the year, 62.8 PPG in the AAC, and 57.8 PPG in AAC home games.
This has a smaller sample because Memphis has only played 3 true AAC games scoring 59 at SMU, 62 at Houston, and 55 at Tulsa. East Carolina has quietly been playing very solid defense as of late, giving up a total of 95 points in their last 2 home games.
These teams played 2 weeks ago in a 70-58 home victory by Memphis. This game sticks out because Memphis is actually scoring 71.8 PPG at home in AAC play and failed to match that total. Now they go on the road where they have only averaged 58.7 PPG in their 3 road AAC games. Whereas ECU giving up 70 at Memphis was expected as they give up 67.8 PPG in road AAC games, yet they only give up 57.8 at home.
From the looks of the small sample you've got a team in Memphis who is much worse and much less efficient on offense when they take the road. Going into ECU who undoubtedly plays better defense on their home floor. Asking Memphis to score 5 points less than they did at home vs ECU seems quite easy. Especially taking into consideration this is their first game without Austin Nichols, the only player on their team averaging over 27 minutes a game and their only player who averages double digit points. Not to mention he's their second leading rebounder and averages 3.3 BLOCKS per game. Memphis should struggle early without his presence. I'm expecting ECU to keep up their solid defensive play.
2 Units
Memphis TT Under 65.5
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POD #2
Memphis is scoring 67.6 PPG this season, 66.4 PPG in AAC games, and 58.7 PPG in AAC road games.
East Carolina defensively is giving up 65.5 PPG on the year, 62.8 PPG in the AAC, and 57.8 PPG in AAC home games.
This has a smaller sample because Memphis has only played 3 true AAC games scoring 59 at SMU, 62 at Houston, and 55 at Tulsa. East Carolina has quietly been playing very solid defense as of late, giving up a total of 95 points in their last 2 home games.
These teams played 2 weeks ago in a 70-58 home victory by Memphis. This game sticks out because Memphis is actually scoring 71.8 PPG at home in AAC play and failed to match that total. Now they go on the road where they have only averaged 58.7 PPG in their 3 road AAC games. Whereas ECU giving up 70 at Memphis was expected as they give up 67.8 PPG in road AAC games, yet they only give up 57.8 at home.
From the looks of the small sample you've got a team in Memphis who is much worse and much less efficient on offense when they take the road. Going into ECU who undoubtedly plays better defense on their home floor. Asking Memphis to score 5 points less than they did at home vs ECU seems quite easy. Especially taking into consideration this is their first game without Austin Nichols, the only player on their team averaging over 27 minutes a game and their only player who averages double digit points. Not to mention he's their second leading rebounder and averages 3.3 BLOCKS per game. Memphis should struggle early without his presence. I'm expecting ECU to keep up their solid defensive play.
Nebraska is averaging 62.8 PPG this season, 57.5 PPG in the Big10, and 65 PPG in Big10 home games.
Wisconsin defensively is giving up 56.2 PPG on the year, 60.5 PPG in Big10 play, and 61.3 PPG in Big10 road games.
These teams met earlier this year and it resulted in a 70-55 home victory by Wisconsin. That is exactly why this line caught my eye so fast. Nebraska has been absolutely horrendous on the road, scoring a measly 48.6 PPG away from home in conference games. Yet they managed 55 points on Wisconsin's court. Now the teams meet at Nebraska's court and while Wisconsin's defense only gives up 1.3 more PPG on the road than at home in conference games, Nebraska scores 16.4 MORE PPG at home than away. Nebraska has scored a combined 155 points in their last 2 home games.
In 4 road Big10 games the Badgers have surrendered 63 @ Iowa, 57 in regulation @ Michigan, 67 @ Rutgers, and 58 @ Northwestern. That's right. They have yet to hold a team to under 56 on the road....
Petteway and Shields, although lousy on the road of late, seem to just have something different when they play at home. The fact that they have struggled so mightily on the road is what keeps me from throwing way more money on this. So although I feel strongly about this total, I'm gonna keep it small.
1 Unit
Nebraska TT Over 56.5
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POD #3
Nebraska is averaging 62.8 PPG this season, 57.5 PPG in the Big10, and 65 PPG in Big10 home games.
Wisconsin defensively is giving up 56.2 PPG on the year, 60.5 PPG in Big10 play, and 61.3 PPG in Big10 road games.
These teams met earlier this year and it resulted in a 70-55 home victory by Wisconsin. That is exactly why this line caught my eye so fast. Nebraska has been absolutely horrendous on the road, scoring a measly 48.6 PPG away from home in conference games. Yet they managed 55 points on Wisconsin's court. Now the teams meet at Nebraska's court and while Wisconsin's defense only gives up 1.3 more PPG on the road than at home in conference games, Nebraska scores 16.4 MORE PPG at home than away. Nebraska has scored a combined 155 points in their last 2 home games.
In 4 road Big10 games the Badgers have surrendered 63 @ Iowa, 57 in regulation @ Michigan, 67 @ Rutgers, and 58 @ Northwestern. That's right. They have yet to hold a team to under 56 on the road....
Petteway and Shields, although lousy on the road of late, seem to just have something different when they play at home. The fact that they have struggled so mightily on the road is what keeps me from throwing way more money on this. So although I feel strongly about this total, I'm gonna keep it small.
I'm here in Lincoln and I'll tell you that Huskers at home are a whole other beast. Add in the fact that you are only asking Nebraska to score one more bucket than they did when they played Wisconsin earlier in Madison, and I don't think you are really asking too much.
BOL buddy and you know me, I'll be on all of these as well. Lets get it
Also, for a fun side note, I play in a HORSE league at a local establishment here with Pitchford in the summers....yes I said HORSE league...just like the game PIG. There's a march madness type of finale for it and everything....I'll tell you now, if you can't hit a 3 in horse, he will demolish you. But if you can pull some trickery off the backboards, you can knock him out pretty easily...depending on how many drinks the other 4 opponents against him have had prior to them starting
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Love the Memphis pick.
I'm here in Lincoln and I'll tell you that Huskers at home are a whole other beast. Add in the fact that you are only asking Nebraska to score one more bucket than they did when they played Wisconsin earlier in Madison, and I don't think you are really asking too much.
BOL buddy and you know me, I'll be on all of these as well. Lets get it
Also, for a fun side note, I play in a HORSE league at a local establishment here with Pitchford in the summers....yes I said HORSE league...just like the game PIG. There's a march madness type of finale for it and everything....I'll tell you now, if you can't hit a 3 in horse, he will demolish you. But if you can pull some trickery off the backboards, you can knock him out pretty easily...depending on how many drinks the other 4 opponents against him have had prior to them starting
Well Memphis performed exactly as I assumed they would. Michigan state hit their TT over as well too bad my official play was on the game over and Northwestern went seemingly 10 minutes without a point. Gonna need Nebraska to step up drastically for a positive night
1-1 Tonight : -0.1 Unit
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Well Memphis performed exactly as I assumed they would. Michigan state hit their TT over as well too bad my official play was on the game over and Northwestern went seemingly 10 minutes without a point. Gonna need Nebraska to step up drastically for a positive night
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