Final 4 picks

Florida ML

(I always take money line on both football and basketball favs of less than -3 and take the points on dogs of less than 3.)

Gators have had some doubters along the way and I guess with 2 win and not covers in the last 3 tourney wins I can kinda see why. But I was also kind of impressed that they completed that comeback against UConn because facing the reigning champ somehow playing as a dog with nothing to lose, and falling behind bad like that is a tough spot. The Huskies were thinking 'We're back baby!' and you probably would have expected them with their pedigree and coaching to finish that upset, with the Gator haters foaming at the mouth to shout Overrated at them as they crashed out.

So you have to credit Florida, they didn't crumble where a lot of teams might have. Between that and the Texas Tech win they proved to be a tough out and Clayton may not be Steph Curry exactly but he seems to have some pretty strong clutch genes. Aren't they undefeated on neutral courts, too? And they already beat Auburn IN Auburn.

Of course the Tigers, who were number 1 i think at that time and hadn't lost in 14 games, will want to prove they are still the real SEC number one like they were then ... but the Gators also won the SEC tournament so for now, they're the ones still at the top and will be a very tough out. It's likely to be close as the line suggests and I agree with the bookies basically I also only marginally prefer Florida. It's a play just because it's final 4 tbh. Semi finals and finals are those ones you can analyze to death and still call it a coin flip. That's just the nature of the beast.

But I like how both the Gators and Duke lead the nation being in the top 2 in 2nd half scoring margin, meaning they really finish strong, meanwhile in both the Auburn game and the SEC title vs the Vols the Gators won by outscoring their opponents by 10 in the first half and the 2nd half was pretty much even. Not so sure how strong that form is vs the Vols because they couldn't make a basket to save their life last time out vs Houston, and then in the SEC tournament the game before that, they beat Bama who also just got demolished by Duke. BUT, those teams still made it to the Elite 8 so having beat them both and Auburn is still notable when analyzing strength of schedule. It does make me somewhat question the strength of the SEC compared to the other 2 contenders left, however, and whoever wins this game, I'm probably going to fade next time and take the winner of the other game, because Houston has the best defense and Duke has probably the best player.

Nice writeup with solid points 

Houston +6

Line has gone down and I am not sure I want to play this at 4.5, kinda annoyed i missed the 6.5 but I think with Houston's defense and physicality they can keep it close to the end. I do like Duke's ability to outscore teams in the 2nd half they have done it all year but Houston has done it well lately too. They were greatly helped by the Vols being ice cold last time and Duke doesn't do that, they have excellent shooting but Duke also was helped by playing a Bama team that didn't play D and had just played a back and forth barn burner. It's very tough to go against Duke especially with a team that has made a habit out of disappointing their fans in the tourney after a number 1 seed but it's hopefully another down to the wire job to set up a scintillating final in a big dance that has somewhat lacked the Madness this year we hopefully get a double dose of it tonight.

Man refs really tried to help Auburn every time they fell behind immediate foul on Florida, they really wanted this to become a buzzer beater or OT thriller but guess what?

Like i said, Florida knows how to finish games strong and Clayton has the clutch gene!

I'm kinda thinking 'they' are gonna want Clayton vs Flagg in the final so I'm a little iffy now on Houston and also possibly changing my mind on who to take in the final. The Gators are just very hard to put away, I love the way they just hang in there and then peak at the right time of their games.

Oh, and I think Clayton might be the most talented player in the country not Cooper Flagg. Flagg probably has the most NBA all star potential with that size but Clayton is killing it right now he already broke the Florida points record for an NCAA tournament in the first half of the semifinal. That 3 he hit over a guy off balance today was pretty Curry-esque.

2 for 2 in the semifinals. Tbh that's better than picking the final. I really don't know who to pick, as it should be in a final it's so close and so easy to like either side. I could lay off but that's hard to do, we'll definitely try and round it off with the winner of the dance but I'm still thinking it over.

I thought Houston would be -1.5 or 2 but I'm hearing it's the other way Florida -2