Florida Man Saturday

0-2 on Friday on two tough unders. 8-8 YTD. 

Minnesota -4 (-110) LARGE 

Put in a short time ago and line has moved to -5.5 in last 45 min. Washington has been a wreck traveling East, and this is a 9A body clock game. Minnesota has been playing much better and has a recent home win vs. Oregon. Should be a nice start to a great slate of Saturday games. 

Adding for Saturday:

NM ST / WKU - Under 141 (-110)

KenPom metrics show this total is just too high, and rare to see a 3+ point discrepancy in totals.  Opened at 141.5 and settled at 141 overnight, but could not get that number in time.

PITT +2 (-110)

KenPom has Pitt as the outright winner here.  Pitt Offense efficiency top 20 nationally, and D is top 60 nationally.  Underrated team overall who has won games on the road this year, including at Ohio State.

BYU TT O 77.5 (-115) - LARGE

BYU has a very efficient offense (7th overall in D1) and UCF defense efficiency rated at bottom of conference.  

Nicholls +10.5 (-110)

Nicholls visited McNeese on the road recently, and played them very close (and covered). Mcneese is ranked 1 in all efficiency metrics in this conference, but Nicholls is right behind them and this is a lot of points of the home team, so I will take them.

Arizona State +6.5 (-110) 

Arizona has not played since their emotional win at home against ISU, and goes to Tempe for a big rivalry game. Expect this one to be much closer than many may expect. Advanced metrics show the same.  I admit, had a hard time pulling trigger on this one but it looks like a solid play per the data.

I missed a big opportunity with Utah Valley (opened at +12.5) and now down to +9.  Did not expect that type of movement overnight but will now stay away.

BOL all 

Adding Bethune Cookman -1 (-115). Opened at -2.5 and has been bet down. SWAC road wins are not common and don’t see Alabama State making this trip to Florida and beating BCU. I trust Reggie Theus’ team at home here. 

@Floridaman

 10AM but you know it’s just the time zones we all learn in 2nd grade 

@Jdp2598

 MN/Wash? Tips at 12P EST, which is 9A Pacific (where Washington is located). 

I love when people try to show how smart they are, and then are completely wrong. Maybe you should have paid attention in 2nd grade. 

Adding Northwestern +2.

Fading the public here. Wisconsin has not won a February or March road B1G game since 2023 (0-6 last year straight up). Relying too heavily on 3 (#1 in B1G in 3 point distribution as % of scoring) and not shooting well on road - Klesmit is slumping. The “Greg Gard February slide” is a big fear among Badger fans and Maryland earlier this week may have been the start. 

Adding Utah Valley State +11 (-120). 

I’m not a conspiracist… but that Florida game looked off….   Like they returned the favor regardless of whom was out.