73-65
C Conn State -10.5 (Wagner has a reputation as a defensive powerhouse, yet they are double digit dogs. Looking into the numbers, CCS relies primarily on 2PG (8th nationally in scoring distribution) and this is one area where Wagner struggles defensively (244 nationally). On offense, Wagner is ranked 360th in offensive efficiency. There is also the revenge factor at play here. It was CCS who lost to Wagner in last year's NEC championship game to get to the NCAA tournament. I hate giving up a big number to a good defensive team, but it seems like this is a tough matchup for the Seahawks.)
Toledo -4.5 (The Rockets have the 3rd highest offensive efficiency in the MAC, compared to CMU at 11. Looking at the metrics, across the board, Toledo is much better on offense and slightly better defensively. Seeing this I default to location. The game is in Toledo so 2 and a half possessions is not a lot of ask for. The Chips are a desperate team now at 0-2 in the MAC, but it should not be enough motivation to overcome the talent disparity.)
Good luck today!
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