517 Xavier vs 518 Georgetown (-2) 11:30EST
I had to get down on this play. If for anything else because its and early morning play and I feel like it favors the home team with an unusual half hour bump from the normal starts.
Fade or follow, but I feel like John Thompson's Hoyas are on red alert as after getting bounced by Seton Hall on Thursday. From here on out they are in must win situations going into the tournament over the next two weeks to get in decent seeding to try and gather a couple of wins to get a look from the NCAA comittee. Also they are playing the revenge roll after losing at Xavier 80-67. That puts them in a must win situation coming off BBLs and playing with revenge for an 80-67 loss at Xavier. Hoyas have the components to get this victory and do so with the motivation of urgency. These teams are evenly matched as I have Georgetown Rated at 90 and Xavier 91.
Last game vs Xavier
Stats
Hoyas were 26-55 fg10-18 (555) 3pt while Xavier was 28-57 fg and 6-15( 40%) from 3 point line. Where Georgetown faulted was at the free throw line as they were only 5-8 from the stripe and Xavier shot a whopping 18-22. This was the big difference in the game as the hoyas were taken to the post and fouls were called in favor of the Musketeers as they domintated the boards 31-23 in their favor, while the hoyas had 7 blks to 2.
Tale of 2 haves
In the first match-up, the Hoyas were cruising along at the break 42-29. In the 2nd half they loss the edge as they were out-scored 51-25 and you know that JT has been preaching and circling this game because that is not hoya basket ball
Although they have lost their last two games those games were both on the road @ Seton Hall and @ St. John's. They are home this time where their only losses have been to Marquette and Villanova in conference play. Its going to be close and can go either way but give Gtown and the points or ML
Pick Georgetown ML or -2 for 1/2 unit
527 Boston College vs 528 Miami (-5)
This game is purely situational. We dont have to get into a long spew about stats and trends and analytics. Boston College is one of the bottom feeders of the conference and on Thursday night they Upset the #1 team in the country in Syracuse. They had not beaten a ranked team since 2009 and were playing with a great deal of emotion after long-time SI director loss his battle with ALS. That game I would not take Syracuse and I leaned towards BC because of the "Win one for the Gipper" attitude that I was unsure that they would have but wasn't willing to find out although Syracuse was in a horrible spot.
That being said, the same thing that got them the great win should be the same thing that will get them this loss. They play similar style of ball as the Hurricanes but I believe the Hurricanes do it just a little bit better. Although the eagles actually lead this series the have lost 6 straight to Miami with the latest margin of the series by 11 points.
Human emotion is a funny thing but I think with Miami coming off a much needed confidence building win vs Notre Dame will get them over the hump in this one as Boston College although 7-7 on the road they are 2-9 SU. Miami although not a strong team covers the spread at a clip of 14-5 in Saturday match-ups and and even higher pct when playing at home in the A.M. Models like hurricanes up to 7 within a 2 point variance which does not in my opinion make the Eagles a quality Outlier but just the opposite:
Pick Miami (-5)
529 Louisville vs 530 Cincinati (+3.5) This is the kind of game that damn if you do. Damn if you don't . Coach P and the Cards are on a tear since they last Played the Bearcats. They have been playing with a no none sense type of mentality and have been drilling teams.
Don't get me wrong the Bearcats have been playing well. They have a stifling defense and the league's top scorer. Furthermore this team has not lost a home game at home in OVER A YEAR since they have lost at a home game. The last time they played on this court the Cincy won a tough match-up 60-56. There are conflicting trends in this match-up as
- Under is 40-13 in Bearcats last 53 home games.
- Under is 22-6 in Bearcats last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600
- Over is 17-5 in LOU last 22 Sat. games.
- Over is 22-10 in LOU last 32 overall.
There are many other games that were and are easier calls but it has to be mentioned and out put out there that Louisville is looking to DEFEND its title and the only way you can defend anything is take it right to the Hunters themselves
Pick louisville: -3.5
Pick Louisville 1h
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