3-1 posted record, last post 12/17
Play: Georgia Southern / Georgia State Over 147
(released this earlier today, 148 still widely available and should not come into play)
This one is pretty straight forward as you have two teams involved that average more than 1.00 ppp on offense, allow more than 1.00 ppp on defense, and play at an average to slightly above average pace.
But there are a couple nice additional angles in this game to support an Over play. First, Georgia St and Georgia Southern enter tonight with the #276 and #277 adjD respectively in the country, both allowing more than 1.082 ppp. This is rather significant since both have exhibited a propensity to score with ease when facing sub-par defenses this season. Georgia St has faced 4 teams this year with adjD ranked outside of the Top 150. In those games, they have averaged 1.16 ppp. Likewise, Georgia Southern has also faced 4 teams. In their games, they averaged 1.11 ppp. Based on these factors, there is no reason to believe that both teams don’t play to 1.1+ ppp. And on that assumption, and with 68 possessions predicted tonight (KenPom), at a minimum we’d see 150 total points.
In addition to that angle, tonight also sets up for an abundance of points from behind the arc. Georgia Southern comes in to tonight’s game ranked #53 in 3PA/FGA and gets 31.6% (#59) of their offense from deep. This is significant as the Panthers allow opponents to shoot 41.0% from distance (#328) and allow the 4th most % of total points to come from 3PA’s in the nation. One needs to look no further than their last game where poor shooting ODU was 10-22 from deep.
Good luck if you decide to make a play 
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