3-3 posted record on Covers, last post was on 1/31
Play: Hampton / Morgan St Over 139
It’s very rare that you get the opportunity to back an Over with two teams ranked in the top 50 of tempo at less than 140 points; but that is exactly what we have here in tonight’s match-up (Hampton #18, Morgan St #42). And when these occasions do occur, you can be almost certain that there are two inefficient offenses involved as is the case tonight.
But if you dig a little deeper, some interesting trends can be seen that point that scoring 140 points tonight maybe easier than it appears on the surface. Let’s begin with Morgan St. For the season, they rank #233 in adjO (1.011 ppp). But this must be taken with a grain of salt as they played a non-conference schedule ranked 40th in the country. Now that they’ve gotten into conference play and playing similarly skilled teams, we have a team with an OE of 107.1 (second best in the MEAC). And then there is even more value when you consider the fact they are coming off of two low-scoring games vs snails (NC A&T 64 poss, Del St 62 poss).
Doing a similar comparison with Hampton, we see a team with an OE of 94.7 (#323) for the year. But once in conference play, that increases sharply to 1.024 ppp – bolstered by the best FTA/FGA rate in the conference at 55.7%.
Now one can easily argue that Hampton does bring the best defense in the conference to tonight’s match-up with a DE of 99.4 (#78). In fact, the Pirates have the best eFG%, 3P%, and 2P% defense in conference play. But this could almost be expected when you consider the fact that 5 of those 8 conference games have been against offenses ranked in the bottom 30 in the country. Looking at the three conference games vs “average” offenses, they are giving up 0.99 ppp. This includes a previously meeting this year vs Morgan St – a 79 possession game where they allowed 1.01 ppp (that game actually saw a final total of 151 points despite a combined 38.4% shooting effort)
Without a doubt, the pace will be there in this game as these are the fastest and third fastest teams in conference play. Moreover, Hampton has only played 1 game since Christmas that played to less than 72 possessions. KenPom predicts 75 tonight. With this amount of possessions, and the assumption presented that both teams’ offenses are not as bad as their season statistics indicate, I think it is fair to expect at least an OE of 99.5 tonight – a target that gets this game into the mid-140’s
Good luck if you decide to make a play 
(and more tempo free thoughts on college hoops can be found at @riccio14)
Hot Forum Topics
